"If implementing an entirely new policy programme is one challenge, being psychologically ready to jettison everything you’ve been working on for years is another." Photo: Andy Rain/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
There will be no MPs to tread the corridors of the Palace of Westminster during the 25-day election campaign. In departments across Whitehall, however, civil servants remain in post, ministers in office, and the government continues to govern.
But this is anything but business as usual. Once the campaign kicks in, restrictions are put in place that mean ministers must “observe discretion” when announcing policies, resources must not be redirected into political activity and major decisions must be held back. Civil servants will also be thinking about the future and how their own roles might change—within hours—after the election result is announced.
At the highest levels of Whitehall, scenarios are played out for a range of outcomes. Where would a returning Tory government focus its energies? How might Labour redeploy Whitehall’s resources? What combination of policies might kick in if we see another minority government or coalition? The top official, Cabinet Secretary Mark Sedwill, has to prepare for every eventuality—and consider what advice to give party leaders and the Palace if a messy hung parliament ensues. He will prepare a document for both a returning and an incoming PM setting out immediate decisions to be taken by No 10.
Policy briefs will also have been worked up for any new prime minister. In February 1974, amid the three-day week, there were 15 such briefs—including on the ongoing development of the nuclear deterrent, housing and Concorde. Five years on, after the Winter of Discontent, the civil service worked up 12 relatively brief and subject-specific documents in preparation for Thatcher’s possible victory. But these days, briefings can run to hundreds of pages. And the civil service must also consider how many different versions to think about—in 2010, up until the first television leaders’ debate, limited focus was placed on what Liberal Democrat policy might mean for a future government. It turned out to be rather important.
So how can civil servants get real insight into opposition parties’ thinking? One way is formal access talks, but these are often only with the main opposition party, and granted at the PM’s discretion. Boris Johnson only accepted Labour’s request to meet with senior civil servants shortly before the election was called. Gordon Brown, in contrast, allowed David Cameron’s opposition to begin these talks well over a year before the eventual polling day. And even when they do take place, such meetings can go awry. In 1991 John Prescott, well-refreshed after the Spectator awards, stumbled in on talks with the cabinet secretary Robin Butler and declared: “I know I’m pissed but I first want to ask one question—why do I want some permanent cabinet secretary telling me things?”
If implementing an entirely new policy programme is one challenge, being psychologically ready to jettison everything you’ve been working on for years is another. In all sorts of areas, departments need to be just as ready to press the accelerator in the event of a returned and emboldened Conservative government, or to execute a handbrake turn in the event that Jeremy Corbyn is in the driving seat. It’s not only policies but also the language, culture and process of government that may change, with new ministers keen to work differently or even reshape departmental structures to reflect different ideas.
So officials have good reason to prepare, but over-preparation carries its own dangers: post-election reshuffles never quite follow the predictions, and a swap in one or more of the big jobs will have profound implications: just think of Cameron appointing Theresa May to the Home Office instead of Chris Grayling, who held the shadow role. Or Iain Duncan Smith to Work and Pensions instead of... May.
Election campaigns require a change of mindset in normal times—but this contest is, far more than most, one of fundamentally opposing worldviews, and of course it is being held against the backdrop of Brexit. On three separate occasions, in the run-up to three Brexit deadlines, civil servants have been redeployed to prepare for a possible no-deal outcome. The workload has been intense.
Despite the latest extension, the legal default—now reset to 31st January—is still for the UK to leave the EU without a deal. Even if Johnson comes back and finally gets his agreement approved, more brinkmanship could surround the extension of a transition that is otherwise set to run out in a year, long before a trade agreement may be in place. Whitehall will be dealing with known unknowns for a long time yet.
For now, the multimillion pound “Get Ready for Brexit” media blitz has been suspended, but preparations at reduced pace must continue. Exhausted civil servants will—for a fourth time—be working hard to ensure Whitehall is ready for any outcome that cannot be ruled out, with the twist of extra uncertainty on this occasion because the election result is set to have a massive impact on how Brexit unfolds. A Conservative majority should allow Johnson to get his deal through parliament. A Labour majority could see Corbyn negotiate a new deal and then put that to a public vote. Or we could see a minority administration, a formal coalition, or a hung parliament as stuck as this one has been. More than ever, all Brexit bets are off.
Uncertainty can cloud any election campaign in Whitehall. But the fog is thicker than ever. Civil servants, like the rest of us, will be watching every twist and turn to glean some sense of where the UK is headed. But it should keep focus on things it can control. If Brexit has taught us nothing else, it is that it is foolhardy to make rigid plans.
