Less Israelis voted for Tzipi Livni to lead the Kadima party than will attend the Paul McCartney concert in Tel Aviv's Yarkon Park this week. After pollsters had given her a double-digit lead, she only beat her nearest rival, transport minister Shaul Mofaz, by 1 per cent. Yet as leader of the majority party in Israel's ruling coalition, Livni is now tasked with the nearly impossible job of forming the stable government that Israel so desperately needs. And she has 42 days in which to do so.
Livni faces three immediate obstacles, and their names are: Bibi Netanyahu, Ehud Barak and Eli Yishai. As head of the right-wing Likud opposition, Netanyahu's lead in national opinion polls—(perhaps explained by the fact that he is seen as strong on defence)—is encouraging him to try to undermine the coalition and instigate early elections. In Barak's case, it's completely unclear what he's up to. Under his leadership, the Labour party has plummeted to third place in the polls and could even slip further. The party's talented younger tier of politicians are captive to his ego, and his policies seem to have nothing to do with any traditional Labour party principles. He is presently in negotiations with Livni; at the same time he is rumoured to be negotiating with Netanyahu to manoeuvre for early elections. Meanwhile Eli Yishai, the leader of the ultra-orthodox Shas party, is looking for who can award the biggest largesse to his constituency before he joins a new government coalition.
It's not clear that Livni is up to the task before her, but if she is able to wrestle any of these political leaders into a coalition that supports her agenda for peace, she will have succeeded where no man before her has done.
From a peace perspective, the best coalition would include Barak's Labour party (perhaps with Barak ongoing as minister of defence), the more left-wing Meretz party, with whom Livni is apparently negotiating, and a more conservative party in addition to her own Kadima. (Meretz supports a clear two-state solution for the Palestinians and is social democratic in its economic outlook; the Labour party under Barak wavers all over the place on both these issues. But Meretz is too small to carry a coalition without Labour joining in too.) But Livni is even expressing interest in a "national unity government" that would bring the Likud into the coalition, though what that government would stand for is not yet apparent.
Livni, a lawyer and former right-winger whose platform now veers towards the centre-left, is a relative newcomer to Israeli politics, having risen quickly in the Likud party and then in Kadima under her mentor, former prime minister Ariel Sharon. She's an anomaly in today's Israel not only because she is a woman heading a major party, but also because she is acknowledged to be squeaky clean in a country where this is a rarity—as highlighted by the downfall of her predecessor, Ehud Olmert. Israel is also a country that has historically depended on leaders from its army, and while much is being made of Livni's measly experience in Mossad, her military background is nominal at best.
Additionally, in an era where gender differentials are being closely watched in other elections, Livni has never made use of her gender; in fact, she does the opposite. Israeli commentators like to quote a campaign story about how when she spoke in a Druze village, she snapped at the children of the family that was hosting her when they brought out some refreshments and interrupted her speech. She is not warm and fuzzy and she doesn't play on being female—which all is just as well. If she is able to form a government, Livni will face tough terrain at home, let alone abroad. The health of the Israeli economy, which is very closely linked to that of the US one, is something that is as likely to preoccupy her as much as the external threat posed by countries like Iran.
The sad thing is, Israel could be on the cusp of a resolution with both the Palestinians and even the Syrians—if only it could get past its dysfunctional internal politics and form a stable coalition. Progress was being made in negotiations with the Palestinians under former prime minister Olmert, in which Livni played a key role. Unlike Netanyahu, who maintains an irreconcilably hard line on Palestine, Livni has a roadmap for peace and she appears willing to pursue a negotiated settlement with both the Palestinians and Syrians—broadly along the lines of the roadmap put forward by the US, the EU and Russia. It's a very tall order for even the most experienced of politicians, but right now, she is Israel's best hope. All those who seek peace in the middle east should wish her well.
Click here to discuss this piece at First Drafts, Prospect's blog
