Washington Watch: the midterms have finally arrived

Today America goes to the polls in the long-awaited midterm elections. With the Republicans bent on wresting control of both houses of congress from the Democrats, the two parties have been spending money like never before. The midterms are on course to cost $5bn (£3bn)—making them the most expensive US elections in history, dwarfing the $1bn spent on the 2008 presidential election.

There are grim omens for the Dems. Barack Obama has crossed an ominous frontier: a Gallup poll in early October showed his job disapproval ratings (48 per cent) have nosed ahead of his approvals (46 per cent). More than 40m Americans—a record number—are now on food stamps, which bodes badly for turnout. Women voters, who are more likely to be Democrats than men by around ten percentage points, have deserted the party. An October ABC poll shows this gap has narrowed to three percentage points. And, looking at the financial markets, the rise in certain stocks—energy and the for-profit school sector—show that some investors have made big bets on the Republicans winning at least one of the houses.

But the Dems are fighting back with a storm of attack ads in marginal seats, while pouring cash into securing decent turnouts from African-Americans and students. Michelle Obama has embarked on a six-state tour to appeal to women voters.

In the senate, the Republicans look like holding all their vulnerable seats and winning six more. Another six are toss-ups which will probably be decided by turnout; the Dems insist they have the cash and the get-out-the-vote operation to hold them.

Perhaps, but the question gripping Washington is what happens if the Republicans win three of them, leaving the senate tied with each party on 50 seats. Vice-president Joe Biden would then hold the casting vote, as Dick Cheney did briefly in George W Bush’s first term. But back then one Republican senator (Jim Jeffords of Vermont) became an independent and the Democrats had their majority—which carried with it the crucial right to pick the chairmen of the senate committees.

Could it happen again? Step forward, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. Though once Al Gore’s running mate, Lieberman is no longer a Democrat after losing his party primary. He won re-election as an independent but still caucuses with the Democrats. His close friend John McCain will exercise all his powers to persuade Lieberman to switch and give the Republicans the majority—probably arguing that only Joe can prevent a humiliating scuttle from the Afghan war, and stop Obama’s creeping disengagement from US ally Israel.