Somaliland's uncertain future

“Terrorists live in the seams between countries,” says Michael Chertoff, former head of Homeland Security under the Bush administration, explaining why the unguarded frontiers of the Sahel, stretching from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean, are increasingly being seen as the new front line in the war on terror. In the first two weeks of June a policeman was shot in Somaliland and 15 suspected members of the al Qaeda-linked network al Shabab, including six women, were arrested in possession of bomb-making equipment. They stand accused of planning to destabilise the country ahead of presidential elections due to be held this Saturday.

These are the latest in a number of terrorist incidents, the worst of which was a car bomb attack in October 2009 which left 25 dead and dozens injured in Somaliland's capital, Hargeisa. As well as Islamic militants, Somaliland has also had to deal with ongoing conflicts with rebels in the semi-autonomous regions of Puntland, Sool and Sanagwell. Together with bitter disputes over voter registration, security issues have delayed these elections by almost two years, and this in turn has had its own destabilising effect on a country that until recently had enjoyed relative peace and security.

The conduct and the result of this weeks elections are seen as crucial in determining the future direction of the country. “A successful, free and fair election will have a huge impact on setting Somaliland on the right path to democracy, prosperity, and international recognition” says political analyst Hussein Dualeh. An international team of 70 election observers are currently in Somaliland to monitor the elections. There were supposed to be more observers but some organizations, such as the Electoral Institute for the Sustainability of Democracy in Africa, decided that the security risk was too great. Briton Steve Kibble, the observers’ coordinator, believes that despite the security threat, the elections will be a success. “We are encouraged by the overwhelming desire of the people of Somaliland to see a peaceful election, recognised as such both nationally and internationally” he says. “At this stage, we expect that such an outcome can be achieved.”

Dualeh is not convinced. “The ruling Party has not lived up to its commitment to give equal share to the opposition in using the national media such as TV” he says. “It has also been reported that the ruling party is forcing government workers to work on their campaign, or else lose their jobs.”

Somaliland, an area the size of England and Wales, declared itself independent in 1991, following a brutal civil war that cost the lives of over 50,000 people, and has since struggled to gain international recognition. But despite having taken important steps towards creating a stable multi-party democracy—adopting a new constitution in 2001 and holding successful elections in 2003 and 2005—international support for recognition has been slow to build.

Ironically, the growing problem of terrorism in Somaliland might present an opportunity. Although the predominantly Sufi form of Islam practiced in Somaliland does not lend itself to extremism, Western powers are concerned at the presence of an increasing number of radical clerics in the country as well as the porous border with Somalia. With its strategically important position on the Gulf of Aden and a deep water port in Berbera, Somaliland is positioning itself as an important ally in the war on terror. Whilst conscious that too close a relationship with the Americans might not be popular with its population, the government also recognises the advantages that collaboration with the US could bring in terms of finance, long-term stability and ultimately international recognition.

As well as qualifying the country for aid and support from international financial institutions, recognition would also allow mining and oil companies access to the country's natural resources. Large-scale extraction of oil, coal, gemstones and minerals could transform this country of 3.5million, where over 40 per cent of the population live in extreme poverty. Hussein Dualeh is optimistic. “I firmly believe that Somaliland stands a good chance of being recognised as a sovereign state in the next five years if this election is conducted successfully and results in good governance thereafter” he says.

Beside the airport road in Hargeisa, a rusting Russian tank plastered with election posters is a reminder of Somaliland's war-ravaged past and a symbol of hope for its future. This week’s elections will offer a clue to what shape that future may take.