Pakistan university attack: after fragile gains terror returns

The terrorist attack today at a leading university in northwestern Pakistan, Bacha Khan, which killed at least 20 people, casts doubt on the fragile gains of the Pakistan army over the last year. It also serves as a stark reminder of the continuing threat of terrorism to the country’s internal security and to the wider region.

The first senior official to arrive at the scene was Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Sharif. The powerful Army Chief has taken the fight to Pakistan’s militants, particularly the Taliban, something that his two predecessors, Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Pervez Musharraf, had shied away from. The Bacha Khan shooting—which follows an attack yesterday in Khyber at a security checkpoint, and a bomb blast last week in Quetta in the province of Balochistan in the south west—is likely to have a demoralising impact on a country that had hoped it had moved on from the dark days following the 2014 Peshawar School massacre, which killed 141 people, mainly children.

Operation Zarb-e-Azb—launched by the Pakistani military in the summer of 2014 following a spate of insurgent attacks carried out by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)—started to see traction early last year. As a result of the operation, the TTP and other militant groups were largely destroyed in the north west of the country, with almost all of its leaders and hardcore elements fleeing into Afghanistan, finding safe haven on the other side of the Durand line.

Militancy subsequently dropped by 80 per cent in the country, ushering in a relatively peaceful 2015. However, today’s attack was claimed by a faction of the TTP, demonstrating the prevailing strength of militant groups in the region. In a statement, the faction linked the Peshawar School massacre and the one today, claiming: “The army public school attack was a warning, which they didn’t heed. We will continue our attacks… These colleges, universities and schools facilitate the government.” Within a few hours, a statement from the main Taliban group, which is led by Mullah Fazlullah, expressed its “disgust” at the attack.

The statement from Fazlullah suggests that at least some militants have taken note of the widespread opposition to attacks on children. But it also signals a worrying rivalry between the TTP factions. The recent attacks raise serious concerns regarding the threat militant groups continue to pose to Pakistan’s internal security, despite their claims to have defeated the TTP. It also refocuses attention on the dangerous safe havens and breeding grounds for terrorism provided by the border regions between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In recent years, the presence of the TTP in Afghanistan—including Fazlullah, who is believed to be in eastern Afghanistan—has been a point of contention between the two neighbouring countries. One of the first things Pakistan Prime Minister Sharif demanded of Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on his inaugural visit to Pakistan in November 2014 was that Afghan Security Forces should eliminate the TTP in Afghanistan. There is a belief in some Pakistani quarters that Afghanistan’s Intelligence Services—the NDS—has demonstrated a lack of interest (likely driven by a lack of incentive) in going after TTP militants.

This was reported to be a determining factor in whether Pakistan would throw its weight behind the long-awaited Afghan peace process. Ironically, this mirrored long-standing Afghan demands for Pakistan to stop harbouring the Afghan Taliban.

Coming after a second round of peace talks in the Afghan capital on Monday between Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the US, today’s attack on Pakistani territory should serve as a reminder to Pakistan of the dangers of fostering militant groups in the region while underlining the urgent need to fully address the issue of militancy in the region.

This will require the full cooperation of Afghanistan and Pakistan. While publicly there are scenes of the leaders of each country hugging each other matched by positive pronouncements, security in the region rests on both countries agreeing to a comprehensive process to end safe havens in their respective countries and to work together in the interests of regional security.

Pakistan, in particular its security and intelligence services, needs to realise that as instability continues in Afghanistan, the country can never fully claim to have won their own war. General Raheel Sharif vowed on New Year’s Day that 2016 would be the year Pakistan would rid itself of terrorism. If the last week is anything to judge by, the General might come to regret his words.