France’s mainstream parties may have narrowly avoided a Front National electoral triumph, but Spain’s establishment parties perhaps face an even greater threat to their 30-plus years of hegemony as they prepare for the country’s 20th December general election. Here, the biggest challenger to the traditional groups is not far-right populism, but rather “sensible change,” the slogan of the centrist, liberal, and staunchly pro-Europe Ciudadanos (or “Citizens”) party that has, in less than a year, rocketed from national obscurity to being touted as a major force in the next parliament and potential kingmaker to a minority government.
Polls predict the most competitive election in decades. The incumbent right-wing Popular Party (PP) will likely be the most voted party but require the support of another party to have the simple majority required to invest a new prime minister, though this would not necessarily necessitate a formal coalition. A formal or informal pact between the Socialist Party (PSOE) and anti-austerity Podemos would be politically feasible, but remain a long shot as polls stand, and could lack democratic legitimacy by freezing out the PP. A PSOE-PP pact is technically possible but would be deeply unpopular with both parties’ bases given their long rivalry and the negative tone of the campaign so far. The field is wide open for Ciudadanos, which, through a blend of centrist policies and tactful ambiguity, could potentially pair up with any combination of the other major parties.
Polling three per cent nationally only a year ago, Ciudadanos now finds itself on the verge of a unique but risky opportunity. The party may be able to extract promises on transparency from the PP, or demand the removal of incumbent Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy in exchange for its support, or alternatively support a PSOE government—though either option could lead to a loss of credibility and electoral annihilation a few years later. The example of the Lib Dems looms large. Whatever the result, Ciudadanos, and to a lesser extent Podemos, will be able to shake up Spanish politics in the coming term as polls predict a wide-open parliament that will be dependent on consensus building.
Similar predictions ahead of the UK 2010 general election were proved wrong, admittedly, but the debate has already shifted so dramatically in Spain that, even if the insurgent parties have no role in the next government, it will be increasingly difficult to overlook the new parties in passing legislation. Indeed, both Podemos and Ciudadanos may prefer to remain in opposition and exert pressure through, say, parliamentary commissions into corruption, rather than risk getting into bed with the either of the tainted main parties.
Formed in 2005 by a group of 15 intellectuals opposed to Catalan independence, Ciudadanos existed as a minor, single-issue party until in the last few years it began expanding rapidly, amid growing disaffection with the establishment parties.
Ciudadanos’ message of moderation is, at first glance, an unlikely vote winner, especially in a country more known for political polarisation than pragmatism. A year ago left-wing, anti-austerity Podemos briefly polled second, shocking the political establishment with calls to oust the corrupt political caste that ran Spain. But in the subsequent 12 months Ciudadanos has best exploited the drift toward the centre ground, filling a void in a country that has never had a strong centrist party. Unlike much of Europe, there is limited appetite here for leaving the EU—58.3 per cent viewed the EU positively and 20.6 per cent negatively in the run up to the 2014 European elections—and even less for anti-immigration policies. Only 4.1 per cent identified immigration as a major concern in a November 2015 poll. The sitting duck is the two-party system and its failure to tackle corruption.
Spain's main parties by Matt Broomfield
People’s Party (PP)Led by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, the incumbent People's Party is a conservative, christian democratic party founded in 1989. It claims responsibility for a gradual economic recovery following the financial crisis. Polling at: 26.2 per cent (GESOP)
Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE)The centre-left party in Spain’s traditional two-party system established in 1879. They held power until a crushing defeat in the 2011 general election, and are currently leaking votes to Podemos and Ciudadanos. Polling at: 21 per cent (GESOP)
PodemosAfter surging to mass support a wave of anti-establishment, anti-corruption sentiment after it first emerged in 2014, Podemos have spent 2015 dropping their more radical reform proposals in a bid to win the centre-left vote from PSOE. Polling at: 20.4 per cent (GESOP)
CiudadanosAn anti-independence party from Catalonia, formed in 2006, who have successfully crossed over in to national politics, outstripping Podemos in recent polls. They call for a “second transition” of more moderate, liberal reforms. Polling at: 15.9 per cent (GESOP)
Ciudadanos shares anti-austerity Podemos’ diagnosis of a corrupt, economically defunct Spain but presents it in a more palatable platform of moderate reform that can draw votes from across the centre. Bad governance is fair game, but Ciudadanos stops short of, for example, Podemos’ attacks on the banks for bailouts and widespread repossessions of mortgaged properties. The party’s core message of transparency and moderate free market reform—policies include the defence of public health and public education, lowering taxes and reducing bureaucracy—harnesses dissatisfaction with the complacent two-party system without appearing threatening.
Over the decades the PP, PSOE and other long-running parties have weathered corruption scandals, but during the last four years the trickle of allegations has become a tide. In December 2011, when Rajoy took office, corruption was considered one of the major problems facing the country by 11.6 per cent of respondents—today the figure is 40.1 per cent, while last year it reached 60 per cent during a wave of scandals.
But as it gets more power, can Ciudadanos continue to be all things to all voters? To date, the party has largely succeeded in remaining above Spain’s left-right schism. A study for national broadsheet El País in October suggested that Ciudadanos representatives in regional parliaments vote with PSOE 67 per cent of the time, Podemos 63 per cent of the time, and the PP 42 per cent of the time. With a role in government now a real possibility, maintaining the middle ground and outsider status is the greatest challenge facing the centrist party.
On economic policy, Ciudadanos is broadly compatible with the PP, while on social policy the party has more common ground with PSOE. According to Nick Greenwood, political risk analyst at Madrid-based financial consultancy AFI, the centrist party is in a bind: supporting either major party could damage its credibility in the long term, but if Ciudadanos are seen as responsible for an impasse, or even new elections, it could cease to be seen as a vehicle for safe change.
“Holding onto centre ground is going to be tricky, it would be easy to be pulled to the left or right” he told Prospect. “The best way for the party to do that is to stay outside the formal coalitions and take an ad-hoc policy approach, supporting policies on their merits rather than being sucked into an ideology.”
Ciudadanos’ response to the refugee crisis and illegal immigration has revealed the difficulties it may face in attempting to avoid taking fixed ideological positions. The party has called for Spain to take in refugees and supported a European fund to pay for rescue missions in the Mediterranean. But it also advocates restricting healthcare to undocumented migrants, going further than the PP and setting the limit at care for pregnant women, children and emergency treatment. However, this position is not developed in the party’s program and has only come out in response to journalists’ questions—where its heart lies on the issue is unclear.
Iñaki Ellakuria, co-author of “Alternative Naranja,” a book on the party’s rise to prominence, said Ciudadanos is a hybrid of the ideological two strands: Chicago-school economic liberals—most prominent among which is LSE professor Luis Garicano—and PSOE defectors who number among its founding members. These “two souls” of the party are usually reconcilable, according to Ellakuria, but some issues, such as taxation, have provoked an “intense debate within the party.”
The real test for Ciudadanos will be which party, if any, it joins with after the election.
“A coalition with Rajoy now would kill the party,” he told . “[Ciudadanos leader Albert] Rivera is 36, and this is the first time he has run for [national] congress. The important election will be in four years when he has more experience.”
In October, shortly after Ciudadanos became the second force in the Catalan parliament, the Alliance for Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) came to Madrid to throw its weight behind the party, claiming it represented a “third way” for Spanish politics. ALDE chair Guy Verhofstadt, no doubt hoping his group could draw lessons from Spain, said the “Ciudadanos effect” could spread and renew liberal influence, a tall order following high profile liberal defeats in Germany and the United Kingdom and waning representation in the European Parliament.
That, for the time being, seems unlikely. With insurgent parties across Europe largely hailing from the far-right or far-left, Ciudadanos’ centrist position is an anomaly on the continent, a peculiarity of a wider Spanish politics rather than part of a liberal tide.
The power of the established parties is already waning, as proven by Ciudadanos becoming the main opposition in Catalonia in September and Podemos-affiliated mayores winning in Madrid, Barcelona and Zaragoza. Despite 60-year-old Rajoy’s attempts to dodge his principal challengers—all in their 30s and 40s—by ducking four-way debate, Spain’s two party era is surely over.
The challenge facing Ciudadanos and Podemos is how best to translate their predicted sweep of seats into influence, and to do so without being tarnished by the complacent political establishment they have made their name attacking.
