US Elections: Joe Biden would electrify the Democratic race

Joe Biden, America's Vice President, will make a speech in the key swing state of Pennsylvania on Labor Day (next Monday), adding to recent speculation that he is contemplating entering the 2016 White House race.  His potential jump into the contest, given the fall-off in polling numbers of Hillary Clinton, has the potential to energise the Democratic competition in a way no other candidate, except perhaps Senator Elizabeth Warren, could do.

The signals that Biden may run include: his meeting last Thursday with prominent union leader Richard Trumka; his recent comments to Democratic National Committee members that he is deciding whether he has the “emotional fuel” for a White House run; and his two hour meeting earlier this month with Senator Elizabeth Warren, a darling of the liberal wing of the party.

If the Vice President is to enter into the race, he will probably need to make a decision in September or early October.  This is because October 13 is the date of the first television debate for Democratic candidates in Las Vegas.

Biden has the experience and appeal to make a very strong candidate, after standing previously in 1988 and 2008.  In part, this is because of the respect he has garnered as Vice President.  As with some recent holders of that office, notably Al Gore and Dick Cheney, Biden has assumed a significant vice presidential role, on both domestic and foreign policy.

This reflects both Biden’s high standing with President Barack Obama, and also the fact that the office of the Vice President has assumed more power in US administrations in recent years with larger staff budgets, greater proximity to the centre of power through a West Wing office in the White House, weekly one-on-one meetings with the president, and authority to attend all presidential meetings.

Though Hillary Clinton remains the hot favourite, Biden should not be dismissed as a contender for the Democratic presidential crown. For instance, he currently performs better than Clinton in election head-to-heads against top Republican candidates, according to polling releasedon Thursday from a Quinnipiac University national survey.  The Vice President also has a greater favourability rating than the top candidates from either major party, according to the survey.

Part of the speculation surrounding Biden’s candidacy is the possibility, mooted in the media, of a Biden-Warren presidential ticket.  That would potentially electrify the Democratic base given the Warren's appeal to the Democratic base. The left-wing senator says she has ruled out a White House run in 2016 herself.

Biden also has the weight of history behind him if he makes a third White House run.  That is, the vice presidency has become perhaps the single most common pathway to trying to assume office of the presidency in the post-war era.

Since 1960, four US vice presidents—Richard Nixon in 1960, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, Walter Mondale in 1984, and Al Gore in 2000—won their respective party's presidential nomination but then lost the general election, while two vice presidents (Nixon in 1968 and George HW Bush in 1988) were elected president.  Vice presidents Lyndon Johnson and Gerald Ford became president after an assassination and a resignation, respectively.

One reason vice presidents enjoy such success relates to the 22nd Amendment of the US Constitution, which restricts presidents from serving more than two four-year terms. Importantly for vice presidents, this allows for the possibility of organising a presidential campaign in the sitting president’s second term without charges—from inside or outside the party—of disloyalty.

Despite his significant strengths as a candidate, Biden would face major obstacles in seeking to derail Clinton’s campaign which still leads the Democratic race, according to Thursday’s Quinnipiac poll. According to the survey, she has 45 per cent support from registered Democrats, with Vermont Senator Bernie Saunders on 22 per cent and the still undeclared Biden on 18 per cent.

The other hurdle is that Biden and Clinton occupy the same centrist position on the political spectrum, and both have enjoyed long Washington political careers at a time when there is a significant "anti-politics" culture.  Both are also broadly of the same generation, but while Clinton is 67, the slightly older Biden would, by inauguration day in 2016, be the oldest president ever at 74.

Clinton has a formidable national campaign apparatus in place already, and a significant financial donor base—she raised a record $47m during the first quarter of 2015.

Nonetheless, as Obama showed in 2008, Clinton is not unbeatable, and concerns remain in particular about her handling of the recent controversies over her personal email use when she was US Secretary of State between 2009 and 2013.

Taken overall, Biden’s candidacy could transform the Democratic race, even if Clinton ultimately prevails.  The Vice President would prove a formidable candidate and has the outside potential to beat the former Secretary of State, especially if her poll numbers continue to soften in the second half of 2015.