Is this the end of the Mugabe regime?

On Wednesday morning, Zimbabweans woke up to find tanks in the streets and military leaders addressing the nation on TV. To outsiders, it might have seemed like just another day in Africa. To Zimbabweans, the last few days have been something new entirely.

Robert Mugabe assumed power at independence from white rule in 1980. Still at the helm 37 years later, the 93-year-old seemed bent on eternal physical and political life. And yet, as I write this, Mugabe is under military-imposed house arrest in the leafy northern suburbs of the capital, Harare. As far as we know, members of his family are with him. Most importantly, his wife, Grace Mugabe, is purportedly similarly encaged. There is much to suggest that these dramatic events are the result of her miscalculation.

Grace Mugabe’s life story reads like combination of Cinderella and Macbeth. Employed as a typist at Government House in the 1990s, she and the four-decades older president began an affair and then married after the death of Mugabe’s first wife. For almost 20 years, Grace Mugabe stayed in the political background.

Then, at the congress of the ruling Zanu-PF party in 2014, there was a change. A year earlier, Zanu-PF had outmanoeuvred the only serious opposition party after five years of coalition government. Once again, power over Zimbabwe rested with Zanu-PF; power over Zanu-PF, in turn, rested in the hands of a 91-year-old. A bitter battle to become the heir-apparent began.

Grace Mugabe entered the fray in full force. Often dismissed as lacking the necessary grassroots and military backing, she skilfully outwitted several pretenders to her husband’s office over the next three years. Each time she emerged stronger herself.

Two weeks ago, her ultimate victory seemed at hand. On the 6^th of November, Robert Mugabe dismissed his long-time ally, Emmerson Mnangagwa, from the position of vice president. Mnangagwa had fought alongside Mugabe in the war against the Rhodesian minority regime in the 1970s and has held numerous senior positions in the Zimbabwean government. As with so many other defenestrations in the past few years, his dismissal was preceded by public accusations of sedition by the first lady.

But this time it was different. Mnangagwa was the last serious ally of the military in the upper echelons of politics. His removal significantly increased the likelihood of a future Grace Mugabe presidency. This, in turn, exposed top generals to future purges as the first lady would seek to install her own supporters in positions of power. With Mnangagwa in South African exile since last week, the military feared being outflanked. They went on the offensive and rolled out the tanks.

The current situation is extremely fluid. Southern African mediators representing the 16-country, regional SADC organisation are seeking to broker a resolution between Mugabe and the military. With one minor exception, there have been no prior military coups in Southern Africa. Failure to reach a constitutional resolution will set a dangerous precedent in the relatively peaceful region. In Africa, military coups are typically followed by further military coups.

Such a constitutional resolution could involve allowing Robert Mugabe to stay as nominal president until the party congress scheduled for next month. At the congress, Mnangagwa could be reappointed vice president after which Mugabe could resign. However, there are also less palatable scenarios in which, for instance, the police which seems to remain loyal to Mugabe challenges the military.

In all of this, it needs to be remembered that this week’s events are disappointingly devoid of true representatives of the Zimbabwean citizen. If we are seeing the ousting of the Mugabe regime, it is not because the military and Mnangagwa are fighting the good fight. On the contrast, most leading members of the anti-Mugabe faction have benefitted greatly from being his most fervent henchmen. Unlike last year’s #ThisFlag protests which brought thousands of ordinary Zimbabweans onto the streets to voice their discontent with the national leadership, this week has seen a palace coup instigated by one group of courtiers against another group of courtiers. Privilege is fighting privilege.

This notwithstanding, any new leadership will be keen to establish legitimacy among the wider population. One way of doing this would be to win support by improving living standards on the back of better and fairer policies.

So far, the coup has been un-bloody. Despite report of gunfire, there have been no reports of deaths. Zimbabweans have managed to maintain a surprisingly cohesive and well-functioning society in the face of tyranny, famine and hyperinflation. It might be too early to celebrate but life goes on around the tanks in the streets. Somewhere in the northern suburbs of Harare, however, life as the Mugabes had come to envisage it is probably over.