On 5th November 2016, Rolando Espinosa, mayor of the central Philippines town of Albuera, was shot dead in his jail cell. A prisoner in an adjacent cell suffered the same fate. A police statement claimed both had died in a “shootout” with officers searching the jail.A few months earlier, Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte had read out Espinosa’s name on television, along with those of 158 other public officials and judges, accusing them all of involvement in the drugs trade. The 71-year-old Duterte took office last June vowing to wage a “war on drugs”; since then, at least 7,000 people have been killed. Most victims have been poor slum dwellers, unknown beyond their immediate circle. Espinosa’s was one of the few individual names to make the headlines.
Two of Espinosa’s bodyguards had been caught in a drug bust but he had denied any involvement, claiming instead that his son was a drug lord. In mid-March, a Philippines Senate investigation concluded that Espinosa had been killed in “a systematic clean up” operation by police officers to hide their own involvement in the drugs trade. It found that the prison guards had been disarmed and made to kneel against the wall while police officers carried out a “search” of the two cells.
Another elected politician is also sitting in a cell, accused of involvement in the drugs trade. But her case is very different. Senator Leila de Lima is a former Chair of the Philippines’ Commission on Human Rights and has spoken out relentlessly against Duterte’s war on drugs. In return, the president and his supporters have waged a campaign of vilification against her.
In February de Lima was charged with receiving bribes and turning a blind eye to the drug trade inside a Manila prison between 2010 and 2015, while she was Secretary of Justice. Her supporters regard the charges as farcical and her arrest as a threat to political freedom. In a letter de Lima wrote from within Camp Crame, the headquarters of the Philippine national police, she warned, “Each day I am here my life is at risk.”
De Lima’s arrest came soon after Duterte was forced to suspend his “war.” In mid-January it emerged that rogue officers based at Camp Crame had kidnapped a South Korean businessman and strangled him before extorting money from his family. Duterte was furious and overnight, the drugs killings stopped.
But the scandals and the enormous death toll have barely dented the president’s popularity. During the last quarter of 2016, his approval and trust ratings stood at 83 per cent. Manolo Quezon, a communications advisor to former president Benigno Aquino, tells me that the figures can be explained by Duterte’s clever strategy. “In assuming personal responsibility for his policies, he has absolved the public of responsibility for the ongoing problems of drugs and disorder in Philippines society,” Quezon says.
Another factor is the very success of the Aquino administration. Liberal Party politician Benigno Aquino (the son of former president Corazon Aquino), took office in 2010 and delivered rising prosperity, with annual economic growth averaging around 6 per cent. But his chosen successor was humbled at the polls last year. Even though Aquino left office with record approval ratings of over 50 per cent, the split in the centre-right vote allowed a single-issue candidate through the middle. Under the Philippines’ single-round, multi-candidate presidential electoral system, the candidate with the largest minority vote wins.
The Liberals misjudged the mood of the people: it was not enough merely to deliver improving standards of living. As people had become better off, they had acquired property and became more concerned about their children’s prospects. Fear of crime had been falling steadily under Aquino’s presidency, but during the campaign it suddenly spiked.
Rodrigo Duterte understood this and played on his reputation of being tough on crime. He’d been mayor or deputy mayor of Davao City almost continuously since 1988, transforming the once lawless city into one now seen by many Filipinos as a safe place to live. His methods were brutal and Senator de Lima has been investigating claims he oversaw a group of police and vigilantes known as the Davao Death Squad.
There is no sign of Duterte’s popularity waning significantly. Asked how to combat the president, Quezon is frank, “First of all, an opposition should form. You have individuals opposing particular aspects of administration policy and methods but no organised opposition coalition prepared to offer an alternative to any programme.” And since Duterte has largely continued the economic programmes of his predecessor, there is little there to criticise.
So long as the president avoids accusations of personal corruption and the electorate remains focused on disorder, it looks like he will have an easy ride in the run-up to midterm elections in 2019. For all the international outrage about the thousands of extra-judicial killings—in prison and on the streets—for now, Duterte looks untouchable.
