Big question: What is Putin’s aim in Aleppo?

Earlier this week, news of a planned “full scale” assault on Aleppo, Syria’s second city, surfaced. An intelligence source told The Times that they expect a “crescendo of air attacks on Aleppo as part of Russia’s strategy to declare victory there.”

The planned assault by Vladimir Putin, an ally of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, will coincide with the US presidential election. It is thought this timing is deliberate: that Russia wants to exploit the fact the US will be distracted.

The news comes after weeks of heavy bombardment that has left 250,000 people trapped in the rebel-held east of the city without food, fuel or medical supplies. During this time, Russia has come under heavy criticism for killing civilians.

Mid-week, a “humanitarian pause” was announced ahead of the intensified attack: Putin has ordered a truce on 4^th November, allowing temporary safe passage for civilians and rebel forces. The rebels have declined the offer.

But what, ultimately, does Putin hope to achieve in the city? A panel of experts answer.

 

It's impulse—nothing more

Matt Qvortrup is Professor of Political Science and author of Angela Merkel: Europe’s Most Influential Leader (Duckworth 2016)

Vladimir Putin’s decision to introduce a “humanitarian pause” on the bombing in Aleppo was met with puzzlement. Most were thinking along the lines of the 19^th Century Austrian Diplomat von Metternich who asked, “What did he mean by that?” when he heard that the French foreign minister Talleyrand had died. For some reason we are always assuming sinister motives based on the reasoning of a calculating chess-master when dealing with Putin. But he is not renowned for careful deliberation. From the youthful stories of how ‘little Voldoya” (his nickname) thumped a fellow citizen on the Moscow metro to his forays into eastern Ukraine, Putin’s style of government—and his approach to life—is based on impulsive action, not on rational calculation. He knows that the bombing is giving Russia a bad press she can ill afford. A humanitarian gesture might give him some much-needed goodwill. Putin acts, he doesn’t plan.

Strategic vision

Robert Fry, Deputy Commanding General of coalition forces in Iraq for most of 2006, is now a businessman and academic

Putin’s aim in the rumoured Syrian regime offensive against eastern Aleppo is simple: to win. The casual observer may think winning is an illusory condition in a situation as complex and fractured as Syria, and, for the luckless Syrian civilian, that may be true. But that is of no concern to the Russian leader, who will see a bad hand played well. His country may be a pariah state but he has shown the clarity of strategic vision to pick an ally, the odious Assad, and stick with him. By applying just enough Russian military muscle to put the regime in a position to win the culminating battle of the civil war, Putin will gain the strategic gratitude of Assad and his Iranian backers. With that will come an enduring role in the region but with no enduring liability.

Compare that with how the US played Iraq: no contest.

Whatever the answer, we can’t stand by

Alison McGovern is MP for Wirral South and co-chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group “Friends of Syria”

As a founding member of the UN, and as one of the 193 nation states that signed up to the Responsibility to Protect Doctrine, Britain has a long history of internationalist values. With these values comes the responsibility to endeavour to uphold human rights across the globe.

With this in mind, we must turn our eyes to Putin and the atrocities he is committing in Syria. How can we as a nation, committed to the protection of innocent people, stand by? The answer is we can’t. We must and can do more, the global community must come together, as we have done in the past, and uphold international order and security. We need a comprehensive strategy to protect civilians in Syria.

So when it comes to the question, “What is Putin’s aim in Syria?” It could be a long strategy to see how far he can go without global action to prevent him, or it could be to gain further influence in the Middle East? But no matter his aims, they are irrelevant to what truly matters—the current global inaction to prevent and deter the killing of innocent people, and the importance now of protection of those who desperately need our help.

Great power status Jasmine Gani is a lecturer in the school of international relations at the University of St Andrews 

Russia’s aims in Syria are multi-faceted, and moreover, liable to evolve as the conflict goes on. Putin has pursued his Syria strategy so consistently and enthusiastically precisely because it ticks off several boxes in Russian foreign and domestic policy with (currently) very few costs.  Firstly, one key aim has already been fulfilled: that is, to restore its great power status and to be perceived, both abroad and at home, as a credible rival to the United States in world affairs. US retreat from the Middle East has enabled Russia to fill some of the vacuum, such that it is now viewed by the US as an indispensable power-broker in the Syrian conflict. Secondly, while Putin appears to be cultivating a long-term military presence in Syria, matters closer to home are of greater importance to him, chiefly the Ukrainian conflict and EU sanctions. Putin seeks to use Russia's enhanced global standing, accomplished via the Syria conflict, to give it more leverage over its regional politics. Thirdly, there is a good deal of opportunism in Russia's policy—thus exacerbation of the refugee crisis for Europe, and a long-term stake in Middle Eastern politics, are not Putin's priorities, but nevertheless they are welcome developments for him.

A psychological battle

Sarah Lain is a Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute

Psychologically, Aleppo has become an important battle between Russia’s alliance and rebel groups, with the city divided between the two. The taking of Aleppo will strengthen Russia and its allies’ hand in future bargaining over any political settlement in Syria and also provide impetus to pursue further territorial gains around the city. A failed rebel offensive on western Aleppo has given Russia and the Syrian government confidence, with Russia’s military directly appealing to rebels to leave the city by Friday. The aim of Russia’s “humanitarian pause” is likely to be in preparation of an offensive, but it also seeks to soften some of the reputational damage done by its recent bombing campaign on Aleppo, including on civilian targets.