In the four years of Donald Trump’s presidency, shocking scenes have become the norm. But the storming of the US Capitol on Wednesday by rioters seeking to overturn the results of a free and fair election—encouraged by the outgoing President—was of a whole different scale, even as it was also the logical conclusion of the Trump Presidency.
It is difficult to convey the magnitude of what happened without sounding overwrought. But the fact is that events on Wednesday—which can justifiably be viewed as an attempted insurrection—led to five deaths and dozens more injuries. Elected representatives were told to take cover or were evacuated. Explosive devices were reportedly found on the Capitol grounds and at other locations in Washington. Journalists were harassed live on air. Amid all of this, the President expressed his “love” for the rioters, while continuing to make baseless accusations about the election. A small number of Republican senators—and more House members—voted to reject the certification of results from states even after the Joint Session of Congress resumed.
All this poses two sets of questions for the United States. The first concerns the immediate future: what happens between now and 20th January, when President-elect Biden will take office? This will largely be resolved by politicians—by members of Trump’s administration, and by members of Congress. Already the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, has called on the Vice President and Cabinet to invoke the 25th amendment to remove Trump from office. If they do not do so, she has said, then Congress may take matters into its own hands and seek to impeach President Trump for a second time. Other Democrats—and some Republicans—have also called for Trump’s removal.
No president in American history has ever been removed from office by being impeached and then convicted; nor by use of the 25th amendment. This is because the thresholds that have to be met for either mechanism to work are high: if a majority of the House of Representatives votes to impeach a president, then two-thirds of senators have to vote to convict. To invoke section four of the 25th amendment, a majority of the Cabinet has to agree that the president is no longer fit to hold office—and if the president challenged this, then a two-thirds majority in Congress would again be required to remove them. It looks unlikely that either of these things will happen within the next fortnight: more Republicans may now want to finally distance themselves from President Trump, but it is unlikely enough of them will go so far as to bring about his removal. Trump’s statement on Thursday, finally conceding the election and condemning the protestors that he had been encouraging just 24 hours before, was an attempt to signal to members of his own party that he is dialling down his rhetoric and should be allowed to remain in office.
But arguments over the immediate future are in many ways less important than the other questions facing the United States—about its broken political and democratic culture. What will politics look like after Donald Trump? How do you govern after President Trump? Is it possible to reconcile the different realities that some citizens—and politicians—seemingly inhabit? These are altogether harder questions, and ones that should be considered not just by politicians but also by the media, major technology companies, individual citizens, academics, and civil society groups—in short, by everybody.
On the one hand, there is some small cause for hope. Despite attacks both before and after the election, the US electoral process has worked. Votes were cast and counted, legal challenges were heard and dealt with appropriately, results were certified by the states, and have been verified by the US Congress. Increasingly outlandish and disturbing conspiracy theories, peddled by the President and some of those around him, have not succeeded in overturning facts and reality. But on the other hand, if we find cause for optimism in the fact that a president has been unable to overturn the legitimate results of an election, then how low have our standards for American democracy fallen? If we are relieved that the outgoing President has, finally, committed himself to an “orderly transition” of power, how fragile have things become?
Focusing on the fact that democratic processes have worked risks blinding us to much deeper problems with American political culture. Increasingly, the US is divided into different world-views: fact versus fiction, reality versus conspiracy theory, and faith in institutions versus mistrust of the US democratic system. It isn’t just a deeply divided polity—it’s a country where people cannot even agree on basic facts and democratic values. The signs of this disunion have been there for years, and Wednesday’s storming of the Capitol was the most recent—and most worrying—example.
It is wishful thinking to suggest that this will be fixed by the presidency changing hands. A political and democratic culture based on a shared reality, where debate and disagreement stem from agreed-upon facts, where language and character matter, does not automatically flow from a new government. Certainly, as his remarks on Wednesday evening made clear, Joe Biden will take a very different approach to the presidency. He is more invested in truth and responsible rhetoric than his predecessor. As we have seen over the last four years, this is important. But it alone will not be enough to overcome the damage that has been done—at least, not soon.
There are no easy answers to the crisis facing the United States. The incoming President faces a huge challenge not just from the issues confronting him, but also from the fragmented democratic system that he will inherit. The traditional motto of the US, “E pluribus unum” (out of many, one) is written in gold above the dais of the Senate chamber, where a rioter sat on Wednesday. At the moment, the US is fractured—and trying to piece it back together into one is the biggest task facing all those who care about American democracy.
