Under Angela Merkel, the Christian Democrat Party has been in power in Germany for 16 years. It was also in power under Helmut Kohl for 16 years and under Konrad Adenauer for 14 years. Of the 72 years of the Federal Republic’s existence, 52 have been under a CDU-led government.
Until recently it looked as though this would continue after the federal election due in September this year. The party has consistently been polling around the 32-33 per cent mark: not as high as at the beginning of Merkel’s chancellorship but over 10 per cent ahead of its nearest rival. It seemed set not only to be the biggest party by far in the Bundestag but also to be the only one capable of leading a majority government. The only question was with whom it would form a coalition.
But the results of two Land (province) elections held yesterday suggest that it may now not be plain sailing for the CDU. Voters in Baden-Württemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz have bucked recent trends and delivered votes of confidence in the existing regional governments, neither of which is CDU-led.
In Baden-Württemberg the big winners were the Greens. They have always performed well there. Stuttgart, the state capital, is the first major city in Germany to elect a Green Mayor and Winfried Kretschmann, who is on the economically liberal and centrist wing of the party, is the first—and so far only—Green Minister President (head of the provincial government). He was elected in 2011 and re-elected in 2016. In 2011 he formed a coalition with the Social Democrats as his junior partner; in 2016 with the CDU.
The CDU had hoped that by this time the shine would have worn off him and that they, the Christian Democrats, would have reverted to the position they held for many years before 2011, of being the biggest party in the Land. But they were disappointed. The Greens managed on Monday to increase their share of the vote slightly, from 30.3 per cent to 30.7 per cent. The CDU by contrast suffered a significant reverse. Their vote share fell from 27 per cent to 23 per cent.
In Rheinand-Pfalz the CDU was in opposition. The SPD emerged as the largest party after the election in 2016 and formed a coalition with the Free Democrats and the Greens. But the Christian Democrats had hoped to displace them this time as the largest party and to be in a position to lead a government themselves. Again they were disappointed. The SPD’s vote share held fairly steady. The CDU lost nearly 6 per cent.
The arithmetic of the results suggests that in Rheinland-Pfalz the existing coalition will continue in office. But in Baden-Württemberg the Green Minister President has a wider range of options than last time. He could continue to govern with the CDU. He could also form a three-party coalition with the SPD and the Free Democrats.
But it is the repercussions at the national level which are attracting most speculation. These were the first Land elections since the CDU chose Armin Laschet, the genial but uncharismatic Minister President of North-Rhine Westphalia, to be its new leader. They were widely regarded as a test of his popular appeal: had the party done well he would almost certainly have been selected as its candidate for the chancellorship in September’s federal election. But the reverse happened. In both Länder the CDU’s performance was its worst ever.
This does not mean that Laschet’s chances have disappeared. There were reasons other than the personality of its Chairman that may have contributed to the party’s poor showing: three Bundestag members have had to resign in recent days amid allegations they were taking bribes, for example in relation to face mask procurement. There is also the fact that in both Baden-Württemberg and Rheinland-Pfalz the incumbent minister presidents are popular figures. But he is certainly no longer a shoo-in for the candidacy; and others may be encouraged to throw their hats into the ring.
The one with the greatest chance of success is Markus Söder, the Minister President of Bavaria and leader of the CSU, the CDU’s sister party there. The two parties always present a common candidate for the chancellorship and on two previous occasions it has been a CSU politician. Söder is more popular overall in Germany than Laschet and a more skilful public performer. If CDU parliamentarians come to the view that Laschet is more of a liability than an asset, they may seek to draft Söder instead. It is unclear though whether he would be available: he has so far said that his place is in Bavaria, not Berlin. At a time when the CDU is struggling in the polls he might see the candidacy for chancellor as something of a poisoned chalice.
Not least because the identity of the party’s candidate for chancellor is not the only question thrown open by Monday’s election results. As Norbert Röttgen, a widely respected CDU politician who was one of the losing candidates to Laschet in the election for party leader, put it in a television interview immediately after the results were announced: there is now the possibility that a federal government could be formed in Germany without the CDU.
Unless it suffers a catastrophic decline in popularity in the coming six months the CDU is likely to be the largest party in the Bundestag. But this does not guarantee that it will supply the chancellor. So long as its percentage of the votes is in the high 30s, as it has often been in the past, the only arithmetically possible alternative to a CDU-led government would be a coalition including either the far-left Die Linke party or the far-right Alternative für Deutschland. Neither the SPD nor the Greens have been willing to go into government at the federal level with either.
But if the CDU vote share falls to 30 per cent or just above, then the option of an SPD-Green-Free Democrat coalition would be viable. It would not be easy to negotiate a government programme: the Free Democrats would make demands in economic policy which the other two parties would find difficult. But the fact that such a coalition has governed successfully in Rheinland-Pfalz and looks as if it will be returned to office suggests that it is not impossible.
So which of the three parties would provide the chancellor in such a coalition? According to tradition the one with the largest number of seats in the Bundestag; and on the basis of current polls this would be the Greens. They have a credible candidate available. Their leader Robert Habeck is one of the most popular and respected politicians in the country.
The Greens emerged as a political party in 1980. Part of their original political inspiration came from the revolutionary protest movements of the 1970s which had often led to violence on Germany’s streets. Over the decades they have moderated their policies and become part of the political mainstream. A Green chancellor would be the final culmination of the long march through the institutions to which they committed themselves all those decades ago.
