We are in the final stretch of the 2024 general election. Is Labour headed for a landslide? Are the Tories headed for disaster? Eleven political experts have accompanied Prospect throughout the campaign in a special election group chat. Imagine a WhatsApp group of your most politically informed friends from across the ideological spectrum on-hand to discuss the biggest and smallest issues as the parties vie for our votes. Yesterday, we asked them how a Sunak or Starmer government would handle a Trump presidency. Today, we ask a question suggested by Jane, a Prospect reader in Kent.
Alona Ferber: How fast—and how far—would Keir Starmer pursue rapprochement with the EU if he becomes Britain's next prime minister?
Peter Kellner: I expect Labour to stick to its manifesto—seeking to reduce barriers to trade, negotiating a veterinary agreement to reduce border checks on food, and working for a UK-EU security pact—but not rejoining the EU’s customs union or single market or reviving freedom of movement. Even such limited changes will not be easy to negotiate, and will take time to achieve.
Towards the end of the parliament, attention will turn to Labour’s plans for a second term. A more ambitious manifesto plan for UK-EU relations is one possibility. But this would need two conditions to be met: first, Starmer and Rachel Reeves conclude that, if they are to achieve their targets for economic growth, we need to return to completely frictionless trade with the EU; second, that the Conservatives have seen off Nigel Farage and Reform, and agree the goal of closer trading arrangements. The EU won’t agree to such a deal unless it is sure that it will not be overturned by an incoming Tory government.
Frances Ryan: Brexit (if we’re still calling it that) all seems a bit “emperor’s new clothes” at this point. Starmer knows—as he always knew it would—that leaving the EU has been a disaster. The public increasingly recognise that it has been a terrible mistake. But Starmer, locked in to respecting the so-called will of the people despite the fact that this will has probably changed, can’t say that out loud. Or at least (understandably) feels he can’t. Instead, he must pretend the emperor’s robes are pretty fine—and just need a bit of a tweak.
So, I can’t say for sure what Starmer plans to do next with the EU beyond his manifesto commitments. But I can’t help but think significant improvements are going to be hard to achieve while keeping up with the pretence that we’re all better off out of it.
Tim Bale: The obvious answer is not fast enough if he’s serious about faster growth! He and his colleagues are petrified that any Leave voters they’ve managed to claw back from the Tories will desert them if they're seen to ‘cosy up to Brussels’—which is what they will be accused of even if that cosying is limited to trying to tweak the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement, which is up for renegotiation next year. So, if we’re talking about a first-term Labour government maybe mooting a move back into the single market and/or the customs union, forget it! If Labour were to win a second term, and significant economic growth remains conspicuous by its absence, then don’t rule it out that point—not least because so many of those who voted Leave and still cling to the idea that Brexit was a good idea will have shuffled off this mortal coil to be replaced in the electorate with people who are, at the very least, open to persuasion on the issue.
Peter Hitchens: If Starmer gets the big majority everyone says he will get, then he will feel free to pursue this openly. If not, he will do so by stealth. The repeatedly-postponed introduction of much more wearisome border controls for travellers to the EU will, when it comes, provide a good opportunity to suggest a rethink.
Marie Le Conte: I think it’ll actually be interesting to see what the Labour benches end up doing and saying on the topic. I'm not convinced that Starmer will move quickly on EU stuff, for reasons outlined by others, but there are a lot of aggressively pro-EU Labour MPs and candidates out there, and I wonder if they’ll end up trying to make No. 10 shift its position, or move quicker.
Marie Le Conte: Any threatened rebellions would probably not achieve much, assuming Labour does win a gargantuan majority, but it could at the very least lead to a narrative shift.
Marie Le Conte: TL;DR: change on this will, I suspect, come from the backbenches first.
Matthew Lesh: I expect Labour will stealthily pursue a closer relationship with the EU, surrendering many potential opportunities from Brexit in the process. For example, the EU has also been clear that a veterinary agreement will require ‘dynamic alignment’ with EU food regulations. That means less ability to improve the regulations for the likes of cultivated (lab grown) meat, gene editing or GMOs. It’s mostly technical stuff, so few will complain, but does leave Britain in the worst of both worlds of following EU rules without much say in their creation and future development. Ironically some of Labour’s plans, like putting VAT on private schools, would not be possible as a member of the EU.
This conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.
Tomorrow, our panel will be back to answer yet more burning questions about the general election. Got something to ask our experts? Submit your questions!
