Nigel Farage became spiritual leader of the Tory party in 2016, when the Brexit referendum backed the populist revolt of its members against its leaders over Europe. This year’s Tory conference shows that Farage is still patron saint, and Tory populism will not wane until the party finally loses an election.
Farage was fêted wherever he went on behalf of GB News in Manchester. His appearance at Liz Truss’s packed tax-cuts rally was especially symbolic. It was as if last autumn, with Truss’s 49-day government and catastrophic “mini-budget”, with its unfunded tax cuts, had never happened.
Brexit was a taboo at the conference. It was as if Johnson’s disastrous Brexit deal and its impact on trade and investment had never happened.
The state of public services was barely debated at Manchester. And when record NHS waiting lists came up, they were simply blamed on striking doctors—including by Rishi Sunak. There was no discussion as to why doctors were on strike.
Then there were the rabble-rousing attacks—many from ministers—on net zero, immigration and anything that could be dubbed woke, pro-human rights or anti-car. And conspiracy theories on everything from meat taxes to “15-minute cities”, both of which are apparently Starmerite plots. No wonder Sunak suggested in a key interview that Farage would be welcome to join the Conservative party and its “broad church”.
It was the same interview where Sunak floundered on his own lack of a mandate, having won neither a general election nor a Tory party members’ election. His weakness was a constant theme. As a Brexiter he conspired in not discussing that catastrophe, and he has approached the conference by splitting the difference on almost everything else of concern to the populist right.
Hence Sunak’s net zero reverse, claiming to support the goal while making a huge deal out of weakening its components. And the licence given to Suella Braverman to attack multiculturalism, while himself saying he believed it was working. And refusing to slap Braverman down over her threats to withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights.
The extraordinary debate on high-speed rail, likely to lead to the cancellation of the second leg of HS2 from Birmingham to Manchester, needs to be seen in this light. It is obviously absurd and deeply damaging to build a railway two-thirds of the way from central London to Manchester, whatever one’s views on the merits of HS2 before construction started. But Sunak is desperate to create an opening for tax cuts before the election, despite his critique of the irresponsible Truss last year, and HS2 is the largest and easiest spending cut that might make this possible without re-spooking the markets.
It looks as if the result of all this will be not just a Tory election defeat but a further shift to the populist right after next year’s election.
There’s just one problem. It is no longer evident that Faragist populism is particularly popular anywhere much beyond the Tory party. A drubbing at the election may not immediately make that clear to party members, who will blame the stars, the moon—and Sunak’s temporising. But the longer the Tories are in the wilderness, the more they will have to address whether being popular involves being responsible or being in denial.
Of course, there is a minuscule chance that they could win next year. In which case, Tory members may have little time for Sunak splitting the difference. Maybe then Farage does join the party—and becomes its leader.
