We have been here before. In April 1977, Labour, then in power, lost one of its safest seats, but on the same night held on to one that was much more marginal. In Ashfield, the Conservatives overturned a Labour majority of almost 23,000, while in Great Grimsby, a Labour majority of almost 7,000 was reduced to 520, but not wiped out.
The results from Selby & Ainsty and Uxbridge & South Ruislip are an almost exact mirror image of those figures—with the Tories losing one of their safest seats and holding on to one that looked much more vulnerable.
The parallels do not end there. They help to explain what happened last night. Selby’s byelection was triggered by Nigel Adams’s resignation as an MP after failing to receive the peerage he expected from Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list. Ashfield’s byelection followed the decision of its MP, David Marquand, to move to Brussels to work for Roy Jenkins, the former Labour cabinet minister who had been appointed president of the European Commission. In both Ashfield and Selby, voters punished the party for the decisions of the outgoing MP.
In Grimsby and Uxbridge, there were particular reasons for voters to stay loyal to the party of government. In Grimsby, Anthony Crosland, a popular local MP and foreign secretary, died suddenly. His Labour successor, Austin Mitchell, was a well-known regional television presenter and formidable campaigner. In Uxbridge, the Tories were plainly helped by the disputes over the Ulez policy of Sadiq Khan, London’s Labour mayor, who seeks to reduce air pollution by charging owners of older cars to drive in London. This may not be the only factor: the Conservatives did better in this part of London than the rest of the capital in last year’s local elections. This seems to be linked to Labour’s supporting slipping among voters with Indian heritage. One way and another, the Conservative vote fell by less than in any other seat defended by the Conservatives in the current parliament. If Ulez wasn’t the only reason, it was certainly the main one.
This points to the wider significance of the Uxbridge result. Although Ulez is about air quality rather than climate change, the reactions of voters bear out the consistent message from opinion polls. Concern about our planet’s future is widespread and growing. But when it comes to policies to limit climate change, voters are generally reluctant to bear much of the cost. This is why the debate had moved away from hairshirt measures, such as raising the price of air fares for holidaymakers, and towards the benefits of green jobs and cheaper electricity. The environmental case for Ulez may be overwhelming; but its implementation has been an object lesson in how to lose friends and alienate people.
As for Selby & Ainsty, Labour’s victory belongs to the record books. Keir Starmer could scarcely hope for better news. The 24 per cent swing to Labour was not its highest—in Dudley West back in 1994 it was 29 per cent—but Selby was by far the safest Conservative citadel it has captured since February 1935 (when Labour overturned a 24,000 majority in Liverpool Wavertree, since you ask).
That said, it looks as if the Selby result, like Ashfield 46 years ago, exaggerates the underlying anti-government mood, just as Uxbridge (like Grimsby) understates it. Take the midway point between Selby’s 24 per cent and Uxbridge’s 7 per cent: a swing to Labour of 15-16 per cent. This is not a predication of the likely swing to Labour in an early general election. Rather, that crude average should be taken as rough guide to the swing we might expect in another Conservative-Labour byelection fought in the absence of special factors.
As for Somerton & Frome, the Liberal Democrat victory was simultaneously spectacular and par for the course. It is the fourth seat the party has gained from the Conservatives in the past two years. The 29 per cent swing compares with swings in the other three seats of 25, 30 and 34 per cent. For the Conservatives, the fact that their loss to the Lib Dems was routine should make it no less terrifying.
One element of that terror is the mounting evidence of tactical voting. The Lib Dem candidates’ vote shares collapsed in Uxbridge and Selby, as did Labour’s in Somerton. As in 1997, but unlike 2019, it looks increasingly as if many Labour and Lib Dem supporters will back whichever candidate has the best chance locally of defeating the Tories.
However, this does not extend to the Greens, each of whose candidates increased their share of the vote last night. Their 10 per cent in Somerton was their highest by-election vote yet. Nationally, their appeal is not large, but it is growing—and they seem to attract voters who are immune to appeals to make defeat of the Conservatives their primary objective. In a close general election, a determined Green minority could sway the result in some of the most marginal constituencies.
