The Insider

Can Friedrich Merz stand up to Trump?

The likely next German chancellor will need to exert all the forces of statecraft to avoid an escalating transatlantic trade war

January 15, 2025
Polls indicate Merz will be elected chancellor in February. Image: dpa picture alliance / Alamy Stock Photo
Polls indicate Merz will be elected chancellor in February. Image: dpa picture alliance / Alamy Stock Photo

For Britain and Europe, the German election on 23rd February may be as important as the US election that returned Donald Trump to the White House. It is likely to see Friedrich Merz, a longstanding Thatcherite/Reaganite opponent of Angela Merkel within the federal republic’s centre-right CDU party, installed as chancellor. Merz’s strength of purpose may make him an effective sparring partner for the new US president.

It is not yet a done deal that Merz will win with a strong mandate. He is well ahead in the polls and there seems little hope for the outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and his centre-left SPD. But the far right AfD, anointed by Elon Musk in recent weeks, appears to be advancing to a strong second place, at around 20 per cent support to the CDU’s 30 percent. If the gap were to narrow appreciably, the story of the election might be more about Musk than about Merz and leave the new chancellor weakened from the outset.

There is also the challenge of securing an effective coalition. A grand coalition with the SPD is probably the strongest option available to Merz. But if that were not available, he might be forced into a coalition with the Greens which would put a big question mark over his “Agenda 30” growth manifesto. Merz could risk losing support from the Greens if he moves to reverse the misguided closure of Germany’s nuclear power stations, which have been more needed than ever since the country’s reliance on cheap Russian gas was overwhelmed by the Ukraine war.

However, assuming he becomes chancellor with a strong mandate and a viable coalition, Merz will immediately become the effective leader of Europe in its dealings with Trump. It will be a few months into the Trump administration, so he will inherit whatever early Trump moves have been made on Ukraine and tariffs. Maybe these will be decisive, and there may already be a Ukraine ceasefire deal. But I suspect that the situation will still be highly fluid, and strong Germany leadership will be critical to a successful outcome for Europe. 

Strength in dealings with Trump probably means three things above all. First, a willingness to spend more on European defence, and to lead Europe accordingly.

This may include stationing German troops in Ukraine if that’s part of the price of keeping the unoccupied west of the country free from another Russian invasion.

Second, Merz needs to exert all the forces of statecraft to avoid serious Trump tariffs against the EU and an escalating transatlantic trade war, while also avoiding an escalating trade war with China. The credibility of retaliation to US tariffs by a largely united Europe, with a strong Franco-German lead, is probably key to this. Also an ability to act proportionately on tariffs in respect of China, without being stampeded by Trump into acts of chronic self-harm. 

Thirdly, he needs a credible narrative—and early success—in reviving the German economy. This in turn will strengthen his dealings with Trump and his leadership of Europe. Partly this will depend on his success in avoiding a trade war. But a strong imperative for economic and tax reform, a credible energy policy and a migration policy which stalls the AfD far right while maintaining economic dynamism are all needed from the outset. Make Germany Great Again needs to be the Merz refrain. And a boldness not seen by a German chancellor since Helmut Kohl reunited the country 35 years ago.