Keir Starmer memorably described the mass resignations from Boris Johnson’s Cabinet as “the first recorded case of the sinking ships fleeing the rat.” One of those who quit is, of course, now in Number 10.
Five months after his resignation from the government, Rishi Sunak is facing his own exodus of MPs. Sajid Javid, the former chancellor and health secretary, was the latest to announce last week that he was standing down at the next election. He was the 13th Conservative MP to say he was leaving parliament, having served in the Cabinets of three prime ministers. In his early fifties, he could have had a long political career ahead of him. But he decided to give up—even though his allies say he is still buzzing with ideas for projects.
Some of those quitting are even younger. Dehenna Davison, the MP for the “red wall” constituency of Bishop Auckland, was a star of the 2019 intake, a Tory who is as at home on TikTok as in the House of Commons. At 29, she is leaving politics to spend more time with her family. “I haven’t had anything like a normal life for a 20-something,” she explained.
Chair of the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee William Wragg, who turns 34 next week, is also stepping down. Earlier this year he raised concerns about the “blackmail” and “intimidation” of Tory MPs by the party whips. His announcement came on the same day as his Conservative colleague Chloe Smith, the MP for Norwich North, said she too was leaving. Both were on the way up rather than on the way down the Westminster ladder, yet each has decided for their own reasons that they have had enough.
The process of attrition has been accelerated by the Tories’ decision to ask MPs to declare on Monday which seat they want to fight under the new boundaries. Downing Street is braced for yet more resignations between now and polling day amid growing pessimism on the Tory benches about the party’s electoral fortunes.
Most Conservative MPs now believe that they will lose the next general election. Although Keir Starmer says he feels as if he is carrying a precious Ming vase across a slippery floor as he heads towards polling day, the Tories are increasingly convinced that their time in government is coming to an inevitable end.
The Chester byelection only confirmed the trajectory of the opinion polls. Just as Labour is preparing for government, with lessons for shadow Cabinet ministers about how to run a Whitehall department, so the Tories are bracing for opposition. As one minister puts it: “Politics is a bit like cricket and I’m afraid the British are concluding that it’s time to give the other side a go.”
Some MPs are concluding that they are unlikely to retain their seat at the next election and so are jumping before they are pushed. Others who think they will win do not want to spend the next five years in opposition, as backbenchers with no prospect of a ministerial job.
One senior Tory points out that the earlier you announce you are going the more likely you are to find a good job outside politics. “After the next election everyone is going to be traipsing around the City looking for work,” he explains. “Being a former Tory MP is not exactly a brilliant thing to have on your CV these days.”
There is another less partisan factor, however. Politics is an increasingly brutal business. MPs are abused on Twitter, harangued in the supermarket and bullied by the whips. Some are concluding it’s just not worth it. They are exhausted by life on the political front line and have decided to get out.
The recent divisive era has left others without a political home. Moderate Tories including Rory Stewart, David Gauke and Amber Rudd have already been drummed out of the Conservative Party by Boris Johnson. Labour has lost talented figures such as Tristram Hunt, James Purnell and Luciana Berger. The narrowing of the political tribes means that some of the brightest and the best are deciding that they can have a better career outside politics.
This is not just about the Tory party. At the last general election, almost 20 female MPs quit, most of them nowhere near retirement age. Several told me they had had enough of the constant death threats, rape threats and misogyny. They had tired of living with panic alarms all over their homes and wearing flat shoes to run away from potential attackers. Heidi Allen, the former MP for South Cambridgeshire described the devastating impact on her physical and mental health, as well as her family life. “Without doubt politics has become more toxic,” she said. We are objects. People think it’s OK to treat us as things.”
The Conservatives have a particular issue with departing MPs at the moment. But there is a wider problem for democracy if those with much still to offer in politics no longer want to stay.
