Read more: Why Brexit could be Britain's biggest diplomatic disaster
Read more: Twelve things you need to know about Brexit
“If you can meet with triumph and disaster and treat those two impostors just the same.”
Kipling’s words have come to mind over the last fortnight. The Prime Minister has been battling with his European colleagues to secure reforms of the European Union that will enable him to recommend to the British public that we vote to remain in the EU.
To his friends and allies he is securing victory as one concession after another is secured from his unwilling fellow heads of government. For them he is triumphing. To his critics and foes these victories are hollow and the concessions worthless. They fear disaster if the UK misses this once in a lifetime opportunity to get bag and baggage out of a European Union they believe we never should have joined.
As so often in the political world the truth lies firmly in between these two impostors.
Cameron’s achievements are significant. Of that there can be no serious doubt. For months we were told that any restrictions on welfare benefits for EU workers in Britain would be against EU law and undeliverable. Now the negotiation the Prime Minister is having is not about whether but about how the benefits could be removed for the stipulated four years.
Likewise, it is now accepted that Eurozone countries, 19 of the 28 member states, caucusing by themselves, will not be able to alter the Single Market and, in particular, disadvantage the City of London. Any proposals relevant to the Single Market will need to be determined by the full EU membership.
For me the crucial achievement for the long term is not that on welfare benefits, politically important though it is. Historic is the clear acceptance that the United Kingdom will be under no obligation to accept that “ever closer union” means further integration into the EU. That is, unless we are ourselves satisfied that it would be in the British national interest to do so, as we have done with the single market.
I, and others, have been arguing for years that European Union members must be able to decide for themselves what further integration they can accept. If some, like France or Germany, wish to go further we should not be able to veto them. But others, like the Swedes, Danes and Poles, as well as the UK, who are less enamoured with “more Europe” must have a comparable right to determine their own destiny. This has now been conceded.
Of course, everyone knows that the outcome of the referendum will not be determined by the Prime Minister’s negotiating achievements alone.
There are millions of British voters who have been waiting, for years, for the opportunity to get Britain out of an EU they detest. They are not all readers of the Daily Express but, nowadays, include a significant number of businessmen, professional people and others who would not touch UKIP with a bargepole but share its raison d’etre.
On the other hand there are millions who share the European ideal of a Europe able to speak with one voice in an increasingly global world. Many others are less visionary but will vote against Brexit, knowing that our jobs, prosperity and trade will be more secure and successful by being round the table when crucial decisions are being reached by European leaders.
But enough of the population as a whole, what about the Conservative Party and its MPs?
It is still early days but I have been surprised that only about 70 of 330 MPs have so far declared their determination to vote to “leave.” Of course there will be three or four Cabinet Ministers and a batch of junior Ministers who will join them when the campaign begins in earnest but it is unlikely that the total will be many more than 100-110, or only one third of the total.
They are, so far, bereft of real inspiring leadership but that could change. Unless and until Boris declares himself to be with the Prime Minister, I would advise those in the pro-EU camp not to sleep too soundly.
Of course, even if Boris Johnson was to become the champion of Brexit that would not determine the outcome, nor would it guarantee that most Conservative MPs would vote "leave."
Tories, it will surprise the reader to know, are conservative. They are suspicious of change. If we were not in the EU they would probably vote against us joining because that would mean change and be a leap into the unknown.
As we are in the EU the same principle now applies. Leaving the EU would mean change. It would be a leap into the unknown without any certainty as to the short or long term outcome. As conservatives many Tories will not be attracted to that and will vote accordingly. I will be one of them.
Read more: Twelve things you need to know about Brexit
“If you can meet with triumph and disaster and treat those two impostors just the same.”
Kipling’s words have come to mind over the last fortnight. The Prime Minister has been battling with his European colleagues to secure reforms of the European Union that will enable him to recommend to the British public that we vote to remain in the EU.
To his friends and allies he is securing victory as one concession after another is secured from his unwilling fellow heads of government. For them he is triumphing. To his critics and foes these victories are hollow and the concessions worthless. They fear disaster if the UK misses this once in a lifetime opportunity to get bag and baggage out of a European Union they believe we never should have joined.
As so often in the political world the truth lies firmly in between these two impostors.
Cameron’s achievements are significant. Of that there can be no serious doubt. For months we were told that any restrictions on welfare benefits for EU workers in Britain would be against EU law and undeliverable. Now the negotiation the Prime Minister is having is not about whether but about how the benefits could be removed for the stipulated four years.
Likewise, it is now accepted that Eurozone countries, 19 of the 28 member states, caucusing by themselves, will not be able to alter the Single Market and, in particular, disadvantage the City of London. Any proposals relevant to the Single Market will need to be determined by the full EU membership.
For me the crucial achievement for the long term is not that on welfare benefits, politically important though it is. Historic is the clear acceptance that the United Kingdom will be under no obligation to accept that “ever closer union” means further integration into the EU. That is, unless we are ourselves satisfied that it would be in the British national interest to do so, as we have done with the single market.
I, and others, have been arguing for years that European Union members must be able to decide for themselves what further integration they can accept. If some, like France or Germany, wish to go further we should not be able to veto them. But others, like the Swedes, Danes and Poles, as well as the UK, who are less enamoured with “more Europe” must have a comparable right to determine their own destiny. This has now been conceded.
Of course, everyone knows that the outcome of the referendum will not be determined by the Prime Minister’s negotiating achievements alone.
There are millions of British voters who have been waiting, for years, for the opportunity to get Britain out of an EU they detest. They are not all readers of the Daily Express but, nowadays, include a significant number of businessmen, professional people and others who would not touch UKIP with a bargepole but share its raison d’etre.
On the other hand there are millions who share the European ideal of a Europe able to speak with one voice in an increasingly global world. Many others are less visionary but will vote against Brexit, knowing that our jobs, prosperity and trade will be more secure and successful by being round the table when crucial decisions are being reached by European leaders.
But enough of the population as a whole, what about the Conservative Party and its MPs?
It is still early days but I have been surprised that only about 70 of 330 MPs have so far declared their determination to vote to “leave.” Of course there will be three or four Cabinet Ministers and a batch of junior Ministers who will join them when the campaign begins in earnest but it is unlikely that the total will be many more than 100-110, or only one third of the total.
They are, so far, bereft of real inspiring leadership but that could change. Unless and until Boris declares himself to be with the Prime Minister, I would advise those in the pro-EU camp not to sleep too soundly.
Of course, even if Boris Johnson was to become the champion of Brexit that would not determine the outcome, nor would it guarantee that most Conservative MPs would vote "leave."
Tories, it will surprise the reader to know, are conservative. They are suspicious of change. If we were not in the EU they would probably vote against us joining because that would mean change and be a leap into the unknown.
As we are in the EU the same principle now applies. Leaving the EU would mean change. It would be a leap into the unknown without any certainty as to the short or long term outcome. As conservatives many Tories will not be attracted to that and will vote accordingly. I will be one of them.
