For the first half-century of Northern Ireland’s existence its ruling unionist community knew where it stood with Westminster: the Conservatives were aligned with the Protestants, while British Labour favoured a united Ireland. It was all fairly straightforward.
But those ancient simplicities were dispelled when the troubles erupted in the late 1960s, the waves of violence breaking the old bonds. After that the realities of bombs and bullets dictated to both Tories and Labour that the primary priority was combating the IRA.
Today, with the peace process holding sway, the unionist leaders of the Democratic Unionist party really mean it when they declare themselves open to striking a deal with either Cameron or Miliband. The DUP look set to win eight or nine Commons seats.
Their experiences with successive British governments have taught them to understand that Palmerston meant it when he declared Britain had no eternal allies and no perpetual enemies.
To take but one example: in the 1979 the IRA assassinated the Queen’s relative Lord Mountbatten yet in recent years she has entertained and publicly shaken hands with Martin McGuinness, once one of the IRA’s most implacable leaders. Many unionists frown on such signs of a new rapport between royalty and republicanism.
They disapproved even more strongly of the actions of a number of Her Majesty’s ministers over the decades. In the seventies they were affronted when a Conservative government abolished Belfast’s unionist-dominated Stormont parliament.
Decades later they were outraged when Margaret Thatcher signed a solemn pact with the Irish Republic giving Dublin an important say in Northern Ireland affairs, and stuck to the accord despite many months of unionist street protests. A later Thatcher government, with her personal approval and despite repeated official denials, went much further by entering into extensive secret contacts with republicans while the IRA was still bombing.
The final days of the election in pictures:
[gallery ids="33193,33194,33195,33197,33198,33199,33200,33201"]
When Labour took office Tony Blair spent many hours closeted with McGuinness and Gerry Adams at Chequers, confiding later in his memoirs: “I came to like both greatly, probably more than I should have, if truth be told.” McGuinness recalled: “Chequers is a fairly amazing place. The scenery around it is absolutely beautiful, it just stretches for miles and miles, and so it was a very relaxed atmosphere.”
The thought of a prime minister and republican leaders relaxing so comfortably together was altogether too close for comfort for unionist politicians, who would have much preferred to see McGuinness and Adams in prison rather than lounging in the Chequers rose garden.
The efforts of both Thatcher and Blair were aimed not at betraying unionism but at bringing an end to the IRA’s campaign of terror, which eventually came about. But since then both unionists and republicans have been miffed that both Cameron and Miliband have shown minimal interest in Belfast.
This has produced a perhaps slightly pathetic sense of neglect among politicians who, after all the years of international attention, have felt distinctly unloved. The peace process is recognised as a worthwhile achievement – the violent deaths have now virtually ceased—but most unionists and Protestants feel republicans have gained far too much from it.
Sinn Fein have proved unexpectedly cunning political operators, gaining so many new votes that they are now among the biggest parties in both parts of Ireland. McGuinness is today Northern Ireland’s Deputy First Minister, with his party permanently in government in Belfast.
Meanwhile other nationalists, mostly from an expanding Catholic middle-class, have risen to high office in areas such as the once Protestant-dominated civil service and legal world. And the overall Catholic population is steadily going up, to the point that it is not far off the Protestant total.
The IRA has gone but there is a strong sense that republicanism and nationalism are economically, politically and demographically on the march. A familiar refrain among unionists is—“The other side get everything, we get nothing.” All this has produced an underlying dejection among many unionists, as a visit to almost any Protestant pub will show.
But now the sudden new ray of hope for unionists is that a group of eight of nine Democratic Unionist MPs in the next parliament will give a hamstrung Cameron or Miliband a new appreciation of the benefits of Ulster unionism.
Already the DUP have circulated a shopping list of almost a hundred points, including a request for billions more in cash from London, financial sanctions against Sinn Fein and, implausibly, a tunnel to Scotland.
If the arithmetic falls kindly for the Democratic Unionists either the Tories or Labour would be acceptable to them as allies. Whoever treats them most favourably can expect their support: it’s like sending wish lists to two separate Santa Clauses. And if their dreams come true they hope to find out, in the company of either Cameron or Miliband, whether the Chequers rose garden is as beautiful as Martin McGuinness says it is.
