Boris Johnson and his top aide Dominic Cummings seem to think the Tories could win a snap general election. The prime minister clearly hopes that by stealing Nigel Farage’s plan to crash out of the EU without a deal, he would squeeze the Brexit Party’s vote. Meanwhile, the pro-European vote would be split so badly between Labour, the Lib Dems, the Greens and others that the Conservatives would come through the middle even if they only got around a third of the vote.
This is a frightening scenario. But it doesn’t have to be that way. Johnson can be defeated provided pro-Europeans join forces rather than fight one another in an election. They also need to foil Cummings’s plot to get us out of the EU before any election is held.
Last week’s Brecon and Radnorshire by-election shows that fielding a single “Remain Alliance” can pay dividends. Plaid Cymru and the Greens didn’t put up a candidate in order to give the Lib Dems a clean shot at the Tory-held seat—and the Lib Dems won.
Talks are underway to repeat this success elsewhere in England and Wales. It doesn’t make sense to organise a Remain Alliance in Scotland and Northern Ireland because their politics is even more complicated than in the rest of the UK.
Those who want pro-Europeans to come together in an election have to face one awkward fact: Labour is not yet a Remain party and, even if it becomes one, it is so tribal that there’s no chance of it formally joining a pact with other parties. That said, the other parties—the Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid Cymru and various independents—can and should work together.
The first principle of a Remain Alliance should be “do no harm.” That means don’t put up an alliance candidate against any Labour MP who publicly commits to fighting to stay in the EU—while fielding candidates against those who back Brexit or sit on the fence.
Because the Labour Party won’t give Remain Alliance candidates a free run anywhere, the Lib Dems and Greens will in many cases still stand against pro-European Labour candidates. But they shouldn’t do so under a common Remain Alliance banner. Nor should they put much effort into fighting these seats. Similarly, Labour shouldn’t focus its energy on Remain Alliance seats.
To maximise the chances of success, there will also need to be vigorous tactical voting campaigns—telling voters to back Remain Alliance candidates where they are standing and Labour elsewhere.
The second principle of a Remain Alliance should be “think big.” It should cover every seat which it’s possible to win from the Tories or from Labour MPs who don’t back Remain. The bolder the alliance, the more it will capture the public imagination.
This will lead to a virtuous circle. People will believe the alliance could hold the balance of power after an election and team up with Labour and the SNP to stop Brexit. Journalists will cover the initiative, giving it the oxygen of publicity. Activists will put in effort. Donors will give money. Voters won’t think they are wasting their votes. All that will further enhance the alliance’s chances of success.
There may be around 100 seats where cooperation across party lines could work. But this will only happen if the parties put the national interest ahead of their narrow factional interests. The Lib Dems have a particular responsibility to be generous to the other parties. If it’s a one-way street, where the Greens and Plaid Cymru always back down for the Lib Dems, the whole initiative will turn sour.
Heidi Allen, the independent MP, is trying to encourage exactly such cooperation under the “Unite to Remain” banner. The more momentum and funding this movement generates,the more likely it is that parties will abandon their tribal instincts.
The third principle of a Remain Alliance should be to offer a “safe harbour” for independent candidates, especially Tories. It’s hard to see any MPs who back Remain standing as official Conservative candidates in an election which Johnson will hope will produce a majority for a crash-out Brexit. They’ll either stand as independent Conservatives or not stand at all.
The Remain Alliance should encourage such Tories to keep fighting Johnson by supporting them. The quid pro quo would be that these independent Tories would then call for voters to back other Remain Alliance candidates elsewhere. There are a few million people who normally vote Conservative but dislike Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn in equal measures. Many would respond to a clarion call by the likes of Philip Hammond and Dominic Grieve to back a viable third option.
An alliance built on these principles could have a seismic effect on British politics. It could stop Johnson dead in his tracks. With luck, it will make him run scared of an election in the first place. Provided the Cummings plot to crash out before an election is stopped, the prime minister may decide his least bad option is to ask the people what they want in a referendum.
This is a frightening scenario. But it doesn’t have to be that way. Johnson can be defeated provided pro-Europeans join forces rather than fight one another in an election. They also need to foil Cummings’s plot to get us out of the EU before any election is held.
Last week’s Brecon and Radnorshire by-election shows that fielding a single “Remain Alliance” can pay dividends. Plaid Cymru and the Greens didn’t put up a candidate in order to give the Lib Dems a clean shot at the Tory-held seat—and the Lib Dems won.
Talks are underway to repeat this success elsewhere in England and Wales. It doesn’t make sense to organise a Remain Alliance in Scotland and Northern Ireland because their politics is even more complicated than in the rest of the UK.
Those who want pro-Europeans to come together in an election have to face one awkward fact: Labour is not yet a Remain party and, even if it becomes one, it is so tribal that there’s no chance of it formally joining a pact with other parties. That said, the other parties—the Lib Dems, Greens, Plaid Cymru and various independents—can and should work together.
The first principle of a Remain Alliance should be “do no harm.” That means don’t put up an alliance candidate against any Labour MP who publicly commits to fighting to stay in the EU—while fielding candidates against those who back Brexit or sit on the fence.
Because the Labour Party won’t give Remain Alliance candidates a free run anywhere, the Lib Dems and Greens will in many cases still stand against pro-European Labour candidates. But they shouldn’t do so under a common Remain Alliance banner. Nor should they put much effort into fighting these seats. Similarly, Labour shouldn’t focus its energy on Remain Alliance seats.
To maximise the chances of success, there will also need to be vigorous tactical voting campaigns—telling voters to back Remain Alliance candidates where they are standing and Labour elsewhere.
The second principle of a Remain Alliance should be “think big.” It should cover every seat which it’s possible to win from the Tories or from Labour MPs who don’t back Remain. The bolder the alliance, the more it will capture the public imagination.
This will lead to a virtuous circle. People will believe the alliance could hold the balance of power after an election and team up with Labour and the SNP to stop Brexit. Journalists will cover the initiative, giving it the oxygen of publicity. Activists will put in effort. Donors will give money. Voters won’t think they are wasting their votes. All that will further enhance the alliance’s chances of success.
There may be around 100 seats where cooperation across party lines could work. But this will only happen if the parties put the national interest ahead of their narrow factional interests. The Lib Dems have a particular responsibility to be generous to the other parties. If it’s a one-way street, where the Greens and Plaid Cymru always back down for the Lib Dems, the whole initiative will turn sour.
Heidi Allen, the independent MP, is trying to encourage exactly such cooperation under the “Unite to Remain” banner. The more momentum and funding this movement generates,the more likely it is that parties will abandon their tribal instincts.
The third principle of a Remain Alliance should be to offer a “safe harbour” for independent candidates, especially Tories. It’s hard to see any MPs who back Remain standing as official Conservative candidates in an election which Johnson will hope will produce a majority for a crash-out Brexit. They’ll either stand as independent Conservatives or not stand at all.
The Remain Alliance should encourage such Tories to keep fighting Johnson by supporting them. The quid pro quo would be that these independent Tories would then call for voters to back other Remain Alliance candidates elsewhere. There are a few million people who normally vote Conservative but dislike Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn in equal measures. Many would respond to a clarion call by the likes of Philip Hammond and Dominic Grieve to back a viable third option.
An alliance built on these principles could have a seismic effect on British politics. It could stop Johnson dead in his tracks. With luck, it will make him run scared of an election in the first place. Provided the Cummings plot to crash out before an election is stopped, the prime minister may decide his least bad option is to ask the people what they want in a referendum.
