How Brexiteers' negligence on Northern Ireland could cost them a US trade deal

The prospect of greater freedom for the UK to complete more trade agreements with more countries has been lauded by many Brexit backers as one of the chief benefits of EU withdrawal. Among these, the most hyped has been the possibility of a US-UK trade agreement.

In 2017, then International Trade Secretary Liam Fox pledged that the UK would be able to replace the 40 free trade deals the EU block has, by signing them with 40 other non-EU countries. He boldly promised to do so “the second after midnight” on the initial scheduled Brexit date of March 2019. He insisted that the new trade agreements would at the very least ensure trade was not damaged after Brexit, and could even see it improve.

Like many of the Leavers’ pledges, these ambitions appear to have been mere hyperbole. Months after the initial March Brexit date and just two months until the fresh date of 31st October, the UK has signed free trade agreements with just 12 countries and regions. The bulk of these amount to continuity agreements.

Most conspicuously, the much-lauded US-UK trade deal has yet to materialise. Last week, President Donald Trump spoke positively of its prospects in his characteristically bombastic style: “I think we’ll make a fantastic and big trade deal with the UK. That’s moving along rapidly.”

Despite his warm words, however, in congress doubts are growing, particularly about the potential impact of Brexit on the peace process in Northern Ireland. An increasing number of US politicians have warned that if the UK’s withdrawal from the EU in any way undermines the Good Friday Agreement, then they will refuse to give assent to a US-UK trade agreement.

Democrats Richard Neal and Brendan Boyle—who is also co-chair of the Friends of Ireland caucus—warned at the beginning of this year, for instance, that their support of any trade deal would be dependent on whether it breached the peace accord.

Republican Pete King said he and his colleagues would also have no hesitation in going against Trump and rejecting any trade agreement if they felt the UK was breaching the Good Friday Agreement: “I would think anyone who has a strong belief in Northern Ireland and the Good Friday Agreement open border would certainly be willing to go against the president.”

Support for the issue has been gathering pace and received its highest backing yet when Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said last week that a US-UK trade agreement had “no chance” of being approved by Congress if the UK’s EU withdrawal jeopardised the Good Friday Agreement.

She explained starkly: “Whatever form it takes, Brexit cannot be allowed to imperil the Good Friday Agreement, including the seamless border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland, especially now, as the first generation born into the hope of Good Friday 21 years ago comes into adulthood.”

The US has a long history of being closely involved in Northern Ireland’s peace process. Many US politicians hold Irish American identities due to their heritage; the Irish American lobby within Washington remains strong. The US has often played a crucial role in overseeing negotiations, as it is viewed by both nationalist and unionist politicians as being more of a neutral partner than the UK or the Republic of Ireland.

In the lead up to the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, the US Senator George Mitchell played a crucial role in overseeing talks and winning the trust of Northern Ireland’s fractured political parties. Then US President Bill Clinton maintained a keen interest in the peace process throughout his time in the White House, and helped secure public support for the accord by a series of personal and heartfelt pleas to the people of Northern Ireland on visits to the region at crucial times in 1998.

While it appears that many Brexit supporters have a blasé attitude towards the Good Friday Agreement, then, they would be wrong to underestimate the strength of support it has among their counterparts in Washington.

This will become increasingly important as Prime Minister Boris Johnson continues to threaten the EU with the prospect of a no-deal Brexit. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, Britain would seek to sign a US-UK trade agreement as soon as possible to cushion the blow of falling of an economic cliff edge. Yet, it would likely find that in such a circumstance, Washington would refuse on the basis of what would then be a crisis unfolding in Northern Ireland.

That many who support Brexit care little, if at all, about Northern Ireland’s peace process has been rendered all too apparent in the years since the 2016 referendum. However, they may find to their surprise that if they encouraged to respect the Good Friday Agreement because it is the right thing to do to protect Northern Ireland's peace process, they will be forced to because it is necessary to trade with the US.

If not, the US-UK trade deal risks being consigned to the increasing pile of broken promises from Leave backers and will have dire long-term consequences for Britain’s already bruised economy.