When the Scottish parliament held its first elections in 1999, the Scottish Green Party consisted of just a few hundred active members, holding its annual conferences in community halls and its branch meetings in members’ living rooms.
Until 2014, many did not even know the party was in favour of independence. The Greens were looked down on by the established parties as little more than an environmental pressure group with no business in constitutional politics. When the two sitting Green MSPs took part in the launch of the official Yes campaign for independence in 2012, they were summoned at the last minute by an SNP member desperate to make it seem like more than a one-party project. The Greens' veteran co-leader, Patrick Harvie, was pushed on stage alongside Alex Salmond and figures from civic Scotland, as well as the actors Brian Cox and Alan Cumming—but behind the scenes it was an SNP operation in which the Greens had little say.
In inviting the Greens to campaign alongside him, Salmond and the SNP got more than they bargained for. Following the Yes defeat in the 2014 referendum, the Greens hoovered up people energised by the Yes movement looking for a more consistently left-wing alternative to the broad church of the SNP. Suddenly the little party was transformed into a professionalised operation with money to spend and activists on the ground. As the Scottish parliament moves into its sixth session, there is a clear solidification of pro- and anti-independence blocs, with the Greens as influential outriders to the SNP’s centrist, big-tent government.
False starts
In the past, the Scottish Greens have often been their own worst enemy despite increasing public awareness of their core interests in combatting climate change and inequality. The party has made disastrous internal appointments and struggled with a highly democratic structure not designed for the cut and thrust of campaigning. Stories have emerged of campaign material taking months to be decided by elected committees, infighting between different factions and lacklustre campaign management in multiple elections.
But this time around, things seem to be different. A professional media strategy and a developed digital campaign have cemented the Greens' identity in the electoral landscape. In the most recent session of parliament before the election, they gained a higher profile due to helping the SNP minority government pass budgets in exchange for concessions on extra support for low-income families, investments in green infrastructure and pay rises for teachers and other public sector employees. The party also claim to be picking up support from disaffected young Labour voters, who are less wedded to the UK than previous generations. They have even brought a former Jeremy Corbyn staffer onboard to cultivate their core 18-40 demographic.
Six months away from Glasgow’s hosting of the UN climate summit, polling has consistently put the party on eight to ten per cent of the vote, which in the Scottish parliament’s semi-proportional mixed member system means they could score as many as 11 MSPs on Thursday—polls released today have even suggested that the Greens may gain 13 seats, its best-ever result. Meanwhile, polls also show the SNP fluctuating between a full majority and falling a few seats short. If the SNP should fail to reach the magic 65 seats, the Greens will almost certainly keep them in government and deliver a parliamentary majority for independence.
What’s next?
The big question, then, is whether the UK government will recognise this yellow and green independence bloc as a mandate for a second referendum. For Downing Street, it is convenient to ignore the Greens and focus on the SNP alone. Selective presentation of constituency polling has been used to suggest Green voters do not back independence, but those likely to choose the party on the list vote (where the Greens will more than likely return all their MSPs) are in favour. Focus groups run by the party also show their new voters share their views, but until now did not see the party as a viable electoral vehicle.
Whether the Greens can continue their momentum beyond the election and start to exert a real influence on the Scottish political landscape remains to be seen. Rumours about a “Yes coalition” with the SNP seem to be just that, with the implosion of the Irish Greens after a misguided coalition deal with Fianna Fáil still fresh in the memory. The more likely outcome in Scotland is a combined front with the SNP on a referendum bill in the second half of the new parliament, co-operation on passing budgets and joint overtures to Westminster on the legitimacy of a new vote.
Independence aside, another thumping SNP victory may merely serve to paper over the cracks in a government that will have held power for almost two decades by the end of the next parliament. Voters frustrated with the lack of social change under the nationalists could find a home in the Greens rather than Labour, but that depends on the Greens coming through their adolescence intact and positioning themselves as a legitimate generational voice on its key issues of inequality and climate change. Ultimately it is not whether the demand is there, but whether the party can provide answers to Scotland’s most pressing problems with the hand it is given.
