Former MI6 head: Putin could get more dangerous

Richard Dearlove, the former head of the Secret Intelligence Service MI6, has said that the West is failing to put sufficient pressure on Vladimir Putin over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In comments made exclusively to Prospect, Dearlove said: “I think the sanctions are a strong way to send a message to Putin and the Russian leadership group. But whether they provide a solution to the problem, I have significant doubts about that. So my attitude towards sanctions is definitely equivocal.”

In contrast, Dearlove said that the declining oil price poses a substantial threat to Russia. Having peaked at just under $150 per barrel, oil now stands at just over $40. The Russian economy is heavily reliant on oil revenues—almost half of Russian government revenue is from natural resources. The fall in price has strained the Russian government’s ability to spend, has caused the rouble to decline sharply and large amounts of capital has been taken out of the country. This could lead to worrying side-effects.

“If the oil price drops further, the consequences for the Russian economy are going got be parlous. That could make Russia behave more dangerously. It could behave worse,” said Dearlove, before adding: “I don't think that we are necessarily in a very good position at the moment.”

Dearlove told Prospect that he was unconvinced by the outcome of the peace deal brokered between Putin and the Ukrainian government by Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor and Francois Hollande, the French President. “The only thing [the negotiations] seemed to have delivered was the ceasefire,” said Dearlove, “but it delivered a ceasefire when Russia had obtained what they wanted.”

“The Russian technique in handling these sorts of issues is to put massive quasi-clandestine resources into the equation and then deny that they are using them,” said Dearlove “[and] to make sure that the pegs in the ground that they have as objectives are driven in and held. And at the moment we seem to be powerless to shift Russia away from a de facto situation, which they have largely created.

“We should have a focussed unified diplomatic initiative but it should be backed by the ability to demonstrate Nato’s power. Diplomacy without the willingness to demonstrate power is not really going to be very effective.”

Commenting on the EU and Nato’s actions in the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimea, Dearlove said: “There was a lack of anticipation and a lack of preparation in the West’s position whether it was through the means of Nato or through the structures of the EU.”

“Because we were not really already in a dialogue about the problem, what I am advocating, or what I am arguing, is that the problem was subsequently more difficult to manage.

In further comments, made before an audience at a Global Strategy Forum meeting in London, Dearlove said that he was troubled by Britain’s policy on defence spending. In a wide-ranging speech, Dearlove, who ran MI6 from 1999 to 2004, touched on problems of radicalisation, conflict in the Middle East and Vladimir Putin’s annexation of Crimea. In this context, he said, “I am shocked by the apparent reluctance of political leadership in this country not to make an absolutely clear commitment to increase defence spending to a real 2 per cent of GDP, and in the medium to long term perhaps to spend above that limit.

“Advocating increased defence spending at the expense of other areas—that it should be seen as politically toxic is depressing and indeed symptomatic of a society whose politicians are completely obsessed with the domestic agenda.

“Russia’s aggressive behaviour in the European context is probably as important to each of us as the future of the health service.” In his recent Budget statement, the Chancellor, George Osborne, did not mention defence spending.