The Trump regime’s first month was designed to disempower all of us. The shock and awe of permanent provocation was intended to make citizens and leaders alike forget that we too make history, we too have agency. But we mustn’t forget. The fate of the world is not going to be determined in Washington or Mar-a-Lago.
The Trump regime is proclaiming that the United States is tired of empire, tired of being tied down by alliance burdens and freeloading allies. If so, the rest of the world is being handed the kind of opportunity that only happens in epochal moments of imperial retreat. Instead of panicking, leaders on all continents have the chance to step up and reclaim responsibilities once left to Washington. Nobody knows whether they can, until they try.
There is a price to pay when imperial powers turn allies into enemies. The US loses leverage when it cosies up to aggressors and abandons its friends. The Ukrainians may have been betrayed, but they will keep fighting, even if the Americans abandon them. The Europeans, with the future of Nato dependent on them, will have to resupply the Ukrainian armed forces and rebuild the 80 per cent of Ukraine that remains free and independent using billions of dollars worth of seized Russian assets. These are the “security guarantees” that matter, and if the Americans walk away, Europe will have to provide them.
This isn’t a charitable gesture, but a condition of Europe’s survival. If it fails, then the east, from the Baltic to the Black Sea, will fall back under a Russian sphere of influence, subject to electoral manipulation, subversion and energy blackmail. Soon after that, the entire post-1989 project of European unity will collapse, and the continent will fracture into 27 feuding micro-states. None of these outcomes is certain but however it turns out, the result does not depend on the Trump regime. It depends on whether European leaders can rediscover their capacity for independent action.
Canada, my country, is also rediscovering that it has existential choices to make. It had become complacent about its many virtues, and has had a sharp awakening. Every time Trump or his acolytes talk about Canada as the 51st state, every Canadian, of whatever party, remembers why they want to remain independent. Canada isn’t used to using its oil, gas, electricity and critical minerals as strategic assets, but if that’s what it takes to stay sovereign and free, the country is prepared to do so.
When JD Vance asked his audience at the Munich Security Conference in February whether Europe really believes in freedom, Europeans realised his idea of freedom is not the same as theirs. Europe knows something about fascism that Americans will never understand, and it sets up the firewalls around its democracy accordingly. Vance’s provocations should offer Europeans a chance to remember why they want to remain free, and what challenges they have to overcome in order to do so. Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank from 2011 to 2019, argues that Europe must unify its capital and labour markets and recover its capacity to commercialise innovation to avoid becoming a dependent client of Russian oil and gas, a despondent museum of faded glories. Trump’s threats make the case for Draghi’s agenda.
Everywhere you look, Trump is forcing former allies to make existential choices they’ve deferred for too long. The Greenlanders will have to decide whether they want to be a US colony. The Panamians will have to decide how best to hold on to their canal. The Mexicans will have to figure out, with their Canadian friends, how to keep the border secure, and maintain the cross-border, just-in-time manufacturing that is the mainstay of both economies.
The same awakening is occurring in east Asia. If the US walks back on its defence commitments, Japan will have to re-arm and defend itself alone; if Trump slaps tariffs on Japanese imports, Tokyo will react with countermeasures. If the US withdraws its troops from South Korea, Seoul may have to develop a nuclear weapon to keep North Korea at bay. If the US abandons Ukraine, Taiwan will disbelieve Washington’s security guarantees, and will have to negotiate its reabsorption -into the Chinese mainland.
The same moment of choice has arrived in all nations, on all continents. The many African nations that have counted on US aid or investment must decide whether to get still closer to China. Fragile states in west Africa, such as Mali and Niger, will have to decide whether depending on Russia’s Wagner mercenaries protects them better against jihadis than the departing French legions.
In the Middle East, Israel has re-established military dominance, while sacrificing any chance of long-term peace with its Arab neighbours or the Palestinians. If ever an ally’s tail wagged an imperial dog, this is it. Fealty to Israel has cost the US whatever leverage it ever had over Egypt and the Gulf regimes. They’ve rejected, out of hand, Trump’s idea of an American-owned leisure park built on the ruins of Gaza.
Once they discover just how unreliable the US has become, Brazil and India, who have been placing two-way bets on the imperial rivals, China and the US, will likely line up with Beijing. But these emerging powers, with young demographics, know that China—like Russia and North Korea—is a gerontocracy, sitting on top of a demographically declining society strangled by a single-party police state. If America abandons its role as a provider of global public goods that benefit all—such as financial stability, vaccine science, international aviation regulations— there is no equivalent superpower with similar capacity to attract and compel its allies.
In making his overtures to Putin, Trump has instead gambled that he, Putin and Xi can divide the world into zones of influence, and that he can split the Russia-China alliance. But it is China, not the US, that holds the cards here. A shared Russo-Chinese sphere of influence running from Pacific east Asia to the eastern frontiers of Europe may prove impossible for America to pry apart.
In a world split between three rivalrous superpowers, a truly multipolar world order—dangerous, unstable, uncertain—could emerge. It would be an order of sovereigns constantly manoeuvring for competitive advantage, seeking alliances and partnerships in which—for the first time in 80 years—no one waits for America’s permission, but all states try to play Moscow, Beijing and Washington against each other. The trio may decide on new rules to keep commerce, digital connection and supply chains functioning. Deconfliction regimes might be cobbled together to spare us nuclear exchanges between superpowers, but the new world order will be a constantly evolving multidimensional -system, at the edge of chaos, with climate change hovering over everyone’s hopes for the future.
For all its bluster, the Trump regime does not control this emerging international environment; it doesn’t even control its domestic situation. State and federal courts will likely strike down its most flagrantly unconstitutional gambits and the media will keep snapping at its heels. The political atmosphere on social media, meanwhile, may well slip out of its control. Industrial giants whose supply chains depend on imports are already beginning to howl about the administration’s tariff strategy. The stock market doesn’t like what it sees in medium-term inflation and job numbers, and the US public’s approval rating of the administration is already slipping. It’s not hard to understand why. Nobody living on social security cheques—and that means millions of Americans—likes Elon Musk’s boys siphoning their files onto his servers.
So democracy is not dead yet in America, simply because it is too large, too raucous, too evenly divided to ever be securely in any regime’s hands. Trump’s own electoral support is vulnerable because so many Americans understand that his regime’s power rests on a crime—disputing the result of a free and fair election, inciting a mob to attack Congress, and then, once back in power, pardoning the perpetrators.
Democracy’s future in America may well depend on how many American voters remember this chain of events, and for how long. In 2024, millions gave Trump’s crime against democracy a pass in their haste to get rid of the Biden administration. As Trump transforms America into an illiberal democracy, as the guardrails are torn down, Americans may understand at last what danger they face, and then a democratic reckoning with this terrible regime will begin. There will be—there must be—elections in 2026 and 2028, and the people, by then, will insist on having their say.
