The deadly hurricanes that pelted the American southeast in the last month could still affect the outcome of the presidential race, in ways that previous storms have not.
Parts of North Carolina and Georgia, two crucial battleground states in which Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied, were severely impacted by Hurricane Helene, with hundreds dead and many still missing. The storm has been designated as the deadliest hurricane to hit the United States since Katrina devastated the Louisiana coast and New Orleans in 2005. Florida, whose western coast bore the brunt of Hurricane Milton, is considered safely Republican.
When national polls show a deadlocked presidential race so close to election day, any unforeseen event could tip the balance. American elections are famous for these so-called “October surprises”, last minute shocks that shape the outcome. The last big one, when the FBI re-opened its investigation of Hillary Clinton’s emails just days before the 2016 election, likely helped put Trump in the White House.
Natural disasters are politically unpredictable and do sometimes exact a political toll. The slow federal response to Katrina badly hurt the political standing and long-term reputation of President George W Bush—but the next presidential election was came three years after the storm, so the political damage to the Republicans was not immediate. After Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico in 2017, President Trump casually tossed paper towels to a crowd, seeming to demonstrate his lack of true humanity in the face of tragedy. But the national election was still years away.
As hurricanes Helene and Milton approached, it became clear that federal emergency workers would have to face a new and pernicious challenge, in addition to those they are must already confront as they try to rescue stranded citizens and restore basic services. Social media platforms have been inundated by so many lies and conspiracy theories that Deanne Criswell, the administrator of Fema, the federal official in charge of storm rescue and recovery, was compelled to speak out. She called the lies “absolutely the worst I have ever seen,” and worried that they were “creating distrust” in local and federal workers trying to administer disaster aid. Although Criswell did not rebuke him by name, one of those most actively peddling storm misinformation on social media is Donald Trump.
Trump immediately jumped on the ravages of Helene to turn a natural disaster into a campaign advantage, claiming that both President Joe Biden and Vice-president Harris were being “non-responsive” to Georgia’s need for aid. He falsely claimed that Georgia governor Brian Kemp had been unable to get through to Biden, though Kemp, a Republican, corrected Trump and confirmed that he had talked to Biden. Trump has also said victims can expect only $750 in federal aid, another lie. Most outrageous, Trump also charged without evidence that Biden and Harris were purposely withholding relief aid from Republican areas of the two states. On 30th September on his social platform Truth Social, Trump wrote about “the reports that I’m getting about the Federal Government, and the Democrat Governor of the State, going out of their way to not help people in Republican areas.” Actually, the counties hardest hit in North Carolina and Georgia are red areas Trump carried, but there is no evidence that they are being short-changed in the massive rescue and relief effort underway.
The vilest lie Trump has circulated is that Harris is diverting federal disaster money from Fema to house illegal immigrants. “Kamala spent all her Fema money, billions of dollars, on housing for illegal migrants, many of whom should not be in our country,” Trump said this week at a rally in Michigan. Fema has refuted Trump’s claim, saying, “Disaster Relief Fund money has not been diverted to other, non-disaster related effort.”
Both Biden and Harris have sharply rebuked Trump for lying about the storm response. “There’s a lot of mis- and disinformation being pushed out there by the former president about what is available, particularly to the survivors of Helene,” Harris said last week. “It’s extraordinarily irresponsible. It’s about him. It’s not about you.”
Spreading lies about the hurricanes is part of a broader strategy that Trump employs to undermine faith in the honesty and ability of the government to do its basic job. He has a track record of questioning whether it can administer fair elections and in this election cycle, again without evidence, is claiming the election is rigged and that illegal immigrants are casting votes. Such accusations are serious, as rigging an election is a federal crime, and are untrue. Over the last election cycles, according to various in-depth, non-partisan studies, there is no real evidence of non-citizens trying to vote.
Trump’s lie about undocumented immigrants voting and his lie about Harris supposedly diverting hurricane disaster relief funds to house immigrants are part of the same political playbook. His villainising of immigrants is the leitmotif of his campaign and will be the cornerstone of any challenge he makes to the election results if Harris wins.
It is unlikely that the physical damage of hurricanes Helene and Milton will prevent an orderly vote in any of the affected states, even it is still being counted. What is less certain is whether voters who are unhappy with the pace of federal rescue efforts will buy the false narratives about who is to blame. Cleaning up the actual hurricane damage may, in the end, prove easier than cleaning up the misinformation that accompanied it.
