Now that Kamala Harris is set to become the Democrats’ candidate for president, can she defeat Donald Trump? Before we enter the murky world of speculation, let us start with what we know.
First, ahead of Joe Biden’s decision to abandon his campaign for re-election, he and Harris had similar ratings, and they were not that good. According to the 538 website, which aggregates the main national polls, 39 per cent approve of Biden’s performance, while 56 per cent disapprove. Harris’s figures are 38-51 per cent. Significantly more voters have negative than positive views about both candidates.
A similar Biden v Harris picture emerges from two recent polls in swing states by Siena College for the New York Times. Four years ago, Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.2 per cent. The poll earlier this month showed Trump three points ahead of Biden and one point ahead of Harris.
In 2020 Biden won Virginia by 10.1 per cent. The poll showed Biden three points ahead of Trump, and Harris five points ahead.
Once again, the news is not great for either Biden or Harris, but fractionally less bad for Harris. However, the latest nationwide YouGov/Economist poll shows Trump leading Harris by slightly more (five per cent) than Biden (two per cent). As with the approval ratings, any real difference, when we allow for sampling fluctuations, is too small to matter much. For all practical purposes, Harris’s reputation has been tied to Biden’s for the past three years.
Had the Democrats been totally driven by poll numbers, and Michelle Obama been willing to stand, she would be the new candidate. An Ipsos poll three weeks ago showed her beating Trump by 50-39 per cent. The same poll showed Trump (43 per cent) neck-and-neck with Harris (42 per cent). It’s not that this boat has sailed, rather that it was never launched.
Second, as vice-president, Harris is also tied to the record of the Biden years, not just the president’s personal ratings. Despite America’s record of steady growth since Covid, the YouGov/Economist poll finds that only 18 per cent of Americans think the economy is getting better, while 54 per cent say it is getting worse. Altogether, just 19 per cent say the US economy is “generally headed in the right direction”, while 71 per cent reckon it is “off on the wrong track”. These are terrible numbers—a brutal reminder that when it comes to election time, economic perceptions matter more than the most benign statistics.
Third, Trump also has his problems. His approval rating is pretty much as bad as Harris’s and Biden’s. Again according to 538, 42 per cent have a favourable view of Trump, while 54 per cent have an unfavourable view.
Worse for Trump is a national Siena/New York Times poll conducted last month after a New York jury unanimously convicted Trump of 34 charges of criminal fraud. A clear plurality, 46 per cent, approved of the verdict of this state court, while 30 per cent did not. The poll then tested the wider point—allegations of other, federal, crimes. Respondents were asked whether they thought Trump had or had not “committed any serious federal crimes”, 55 per cent of Americans said he had, while 36 per cent said he had not.
More widely, by 53-45 per cent, a majority of registered voters say Trump lacks the “personality and temperament” to be an effective president.
All in all, Trump looks beatable (as, indeed, the Ipsos figures showed if his opponent was Michelle Obama). With Biden leaving the stage, Trump’s own age and verbal slips might start to tell against him. However, Harris’s ratings are poor. Yet, oddly enough, her current polling weaknesses could turn out to be a blessing. For example, the latest YouGov/Economist poll finds that only 30 per cent of Americans are “confident in Kamala Harris’s ability to deal wisely with an international crisis”; 49 per cent are “uneasy about her approach”. There is surely room for improvement here.
That point applies more widely. If she wins her party’s nomination, she will have the opportunity to establish her own distinct reputation, instead of being tied to Biden’s, as she has been until now.
The thing is that although Trump is ahead, both nationally and in most of the key states, he is not that far head. And his character is too well known for him now to persuade many voters to like him more. Harris’s reputation is less fixed. It could improve—or get worse.
As she steps out of Biden’s shadow and voters judge her on her own merits, Harris’s challenge is to win the extra 4-5 percentage points she needs for victory. It is worth recalling that at this stage in the 2012 election, most polls showed Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama. Buckle up for a bumpy ride.
