With the G20 spectacle behind us, the next big gathering of world leaders scheduled this month is the 5th Summit of the Americas. Heads of states from 34 nations from Latin America, the Caribbean, Canada and the US, will gather in Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago's colonial capital between the 17th and 19th April. It will be the first time President Obama steps foot in Latin America; an ideal opportunity to kick-start a new approach in US foreign policy in the region. And in Washington, there are high hopes pinned on the increasingly assertive regional leadership of Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula de Silva. Lula is the key player who can help open the doors to a new era in Washington's relationship with Latin America—less Chavez-and-Bush-style aggression, and more mutually beneficial cooperation.
Ahead of the summit, Obama has begun to tentatively nurture a new relationship with Brazil. In March, Lula, a former shoe shiner and metal worker, was the first Latin American leader to be invited to the White House since Obama took office, signaling the end of the "special relationship" that Colombia's conservative President Álvaro Uribe enjoyed with the US during the Bush era. And with Brazil's other main regional rivals—Venezuela, Mexico and Argentina—consumed with domestic problems, the timing couldn't be better for Lula to assert his country's regional leadership. While Mexico grapples with drug violence, Venezuela suffers double-digit inflation and Argentina struggles to keep its economy afloat, Brazil is emerging as the natural regional leader. It has enjoyed steady economic growth (an average of nearly 4 per cent) for the past 5 years, driven largely by the global commodities boom. The tenth largest economy in the world, Brazil is the leading producer of sugar cane-based biofuels, and its newly discovered offshore oil reserves which could propel it to a top ten oil exporter by 2011. It is already overshadowing the influence of oil-rich Venezuela.
In the run up to the G20 Summit in London, Lula may have grabbed the headlines for blaming the global economic crisis on "white and blue-eyed people." But Brazil has actually been an effective diplomatic meditator for some time now. During the Doha round of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) talks, which have spanned the last eight years, Brazil led the bloc of emerging economies known as the India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) initiative, a partnership that has given emerging countries growing clout within the WTO. Brazil is also a member of the influential group of "BRIC" nations—Brazil, Russia, India and China. Drawing on his negotiating skills honed from his days as a union leader, Lula has argued that developing countries need, and moreover deserve, a greater say in how organisations like the IMF and World Bank are run. He played a pivotal role in getting the final G20 communiqué to state that emerging economies should have a "greater voice and representation" in shaping global affairs. And with the Amazon covering vast swathes of the country, Brazil is also a key player in climate change and biodiversity.
All of this has not gone unnoticed in Washington. While Chávez has dominated the headlines with his anti-US rhetoric, spats with Colombia and arms shopping sprees, it is the Brazilian model of development that is seen as an increasingly appealing blueprint for the region. Under the leadership of Lula, Brazil has seen its middle class grow by about 20m, while its social programmes to tackle poverty—such as the "Bolsa Familia" initiative that pays families stipends on the condition that they send their children to school—have won international acclaim. Brazil's ability to act as a successful mediator in recurring bust ups between Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela, and during hostage releases in Colombia, has also caught the attention of the Obama administration. But perhaps most importantly, Lula is seen by Washington as a moderate social democrat, and therefore a workable counterbalance to the more populist and militant left led by the Andean trio of Chávez, Ecuador's Correa and Bolivia's Morales. Lula is in a unique position to make strategic energy alliances with the US, while simultaneously remaining friends with Cuba and Venezuela. This balancing act is crucial. "I know how to move between political camps," said Lula in an interview with Der Spiegel newspaper.
So what can we expect from the summit? Latin American leaders are only too aware that their region is not a priority for Washington, as more pressing concerns like the war in Afghanistan consume US foreign policy. In terms of concrete proposals on thorny issues such as free trade, protectionism and immigration, few expect any significant progress. The global economic crisis means heads of state will be hard pressed to make new pledges and earmark greater funding for new initiatives. Yet there is a tangible sense of optimism that relations with Washington will improve with Obama at the helm. Many believe Obama's multilateral approach will bring an end to the idea that Latin America is merely America's backyard. And it's likely that Obama will use the meeting to push ahead with changes in US foreign policy towards Cuba (a direction he has already signaled by announcing that he will lift restrictions on Cuban-Americans traveling back to Cuba, and allow them to send more money to relatives at home). These changes are very much welcomed by regional leaders, and to make more progress in this direction, Lula is just the sort of moderate leftist ally the US needs.
For both Brazil and the US, then, there is much to be gained in the next few days. For Lula, the summit is another opportunity to consolidate Brazil's position as a regional heavyweight. For Obama, a successful summit could recalibrate the US relationship with Latin America and revive Washington's waning influence in the region.
