Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s announcement of the dissolution of the Japanese Lower House, paving the way for a general election on 22nd October has thrown Japanese politics into a period of uncharacteristic volatility and uncertainty.
Since December 2012, when Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) decisively trounced the then governing Democratic Party (DP) headed by Yoshihiko Noda, Abe has seemed like the dominant actor on Japan’s political stage, but a couple of damaging corruption scandals over the past year have undermined public confidence in the prime minister.
In addition, the emergence of a new charismatic and politically astute political rival in the form of the first female governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, whose new populist movement decisively won the Tokyo Metropolitan assembly elections in July, has created a focus for anti-government disaffection that threatens to alter the political landscape in a manner echoing past political upheaval in the United States, France, Germany—and of course the UK. The question is: is Abe about to pull a Theresa May?
Ostensibly, Abe has called the election to allow the electorate to assess the merits of the government’s new economic policy—specifically, a decision to re-allocate the proceeds from an anticipated hike in Japan’s consumption tax, from 8 to 10 per cent in 2019, to fund not only a reduction in Japan’s national debt, but also a new programme of social welfare and educational expenditure.
In reality, Abe’s risky roll of the political dice is an attempt to capitalise on the weakness of the main opposition Democratic Party, languishing at around 7 per cent approval rates. The prime minister has also anticipated Koike’s launch of a new national party—Kibo no To, or “Party of Hope,” announced on Monday and which has attracted a number of prominent political defections from the Democratic Party.
Abe is also counting on the anxiety and uncertainty arising from the security challenge of North Korea to bolster his approval ratings at home from a public that he hopes will chose continuity over change and opt for stable and experienced government at a time of national crisis.
“A recent poll suggests 70 per cent of the Japanese electorate are critical of Abe’s snap election call”At first glance, the election should be a walk in the park for the LDP. The economy has been performing well, growing at 4 per cent in the second quarter of this year; a cabinet reshuffle in August allowed Abe to bring in new popular faces into his government team, including an effective new foreign minister in the person of Taro Kono; and Koike’s preoccupation with the challenge of running a metropolitan government of some 10 million people could be seen as a block on the governor’s freedom of manoeuvre in competing effectively in a national election campaign.
However, there are clouds on the horizon for Abe. Koike’s new movement cleverly straddles the political spectrum: conservative on security and foreign policy and on the critical question of constitutional reform (Abe’s own priority policy concern), but progressive on social and welfare issues. In particular, Koike has a very strong following amongst women (some 32 per cent of the Tokyo assembly seats are held by women, by contrast to 9 per cent in the Lower House). Kibo no To’s platform includes popular initiatives such as the legalisation of separate post-marriage surnames for women, the elimination of nuclear power, and strengthening of local government.
The outcome of the election will depend critically on electoral strategy. Japan’s complex, hybrid voting system for the Lower House combines 295 first-past-the-post seats, and a further 185 seats chosen through a system of proportional representation. As in the UK, small fluctuations in the popular share of the vote can readily translate into large swings in seats in the assembly. Koike is planning to field candidates across the country, and it looks as if the Democrats and Kibo no To will be able to run a coordinated campaign to maximise the chances of the opposition parties.
“A leadership challenge could be sparked within Abe’s party even if he wins the election”Dramatically, the shock 28th September announcement by recently elected DP leader Seiji Maehara advocating a merger with Kibo and indicating that he will run as an independent suggests that actual cooperation will be much closer than simple coordination. The expectation is that conservative leaning DP representatives will join Koike’s new party, while a remaining rump of progressive representatives will be left to form a smaller grouping, potentially in alignment with other left of center parties, including the Japan Communist Party.
Much will also depend on the mood of a Japanese electorate that is traditionally cautious, but increasingly pragmatic and dispassionate in deciding who to support. Will voters see Abe as opportunistic in announcing a dissolution so soon after the summer reshuffle; will the reduced commitment to debt reduction in favour of social spending be viewed as a cynical electoral bribe? An early Asahi Shimbun poll suggests that as many as 70 per cent of the electorate are critical of Abe’s snap election call. The comparisons with May’s bungled election call this year are obvious.
Conversely, will the novelty of the Party of Hope and its catch all agenda be judged too broad and potentially contradictory, and will Koike suffer from appearing to have back-pedalled on her earlier commitment to prioritise her work as Tokyo governor?
As a former journalist, Koike’s presentational skills mimic the media awareness of former Prime Minister Koizumi, and in this regard she is likely to prove a formidable challenger to Abe—sometimes labeled by his critics as arrogant and overly dirigiste.
Numbers are also key. The threshold for political success in the election is unclear, and for Abe victory will probably require more than securing a simple majority of seats overall—238 of the Lower House total of 475. If the LDP drops markedly below its current figure of 288 seats, the prime minister’s dominance within his party may be thrown into question, potentially sparking a leadership challenge even if he wins the election.
Against this uncertain backdrop, a week is, as the saying goes, “a long time in politics” and the 12 days of campaigning that kicks off from 10th October have the potential to usher in some dramatic and unexpected changes in Japan’s political landscape.
John Nilsson-Wright is Senior Lecturer in Japanese Politics and International Relations, University of Cambridge and Senior Research Fellow for Northeast Asia, Asia Programme, Chatham House.
