Hours after Donald Trump claimed victory in the United States presidential election, Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán—Europe’s chief apostle of illiberalism—welcomed a new dawn for Europe’s leaders. “The world will change in a quicker way than before, quicker than we thought,” he told representatives from the EU, UK and beyond who had gathered in Budapest for the European Political Community summit.
If the election result has heralded the new “Age of Trump” in the US, it’s brought Europe to a make-or-break moment for the “Age of Orbán”. Turbocharged by his personal relationship to Trump and Maga insiders, Orbán now has an unprecedented opportunity to unify Europe’s fractious far-right parties and ensure more of them enter national governments and sow the seeds of their illiberal knotweed. The end goal will be to cripple the European Union from within.
Orbán’s charge on Europe’s democratic foundations will be obfuscated by his disguise as a peacemaker. In July the Hungarian prime minister touched down in Moscow on a so-called “peace mission”, only three days after a visit to Kyiv and less than a week after Hungary took over the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union. Sitting next to Vladimir Putin, Orbán proudly announced that “Hungary is slowly becoming the only country in Europe that can talk to everyone.” Later, Hungary’s calls for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow intensified and took on a contrapuntal rhythm with Trump’s campaign.
Trump’s victory has not only vindicated Orbán’s position on Ukraine but will have a galvanising effect across eastern Europe, where there are pockets of voters weary of having a war on their doorstep. Slovakia’s left-wing populist prime minister Robert Fico—who was shot five times in May by a citizen who disagreed with his brand of divisive politics—praised Orbán for travelling to Moscow in July and stated that Ukraine must give up territory if it wants an end to the war. “There has to be some kind of compromise,” he said. With Orbán and Trump likely to increase pressure on Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire, populists like Fico are expected to intensify their anti-Ukraine rhetoric, using the war to attack the EU and deflect from the failings of their own leadership.
Being seen as a peacemaker is top of Orbán’s agenda, but strengthening Europe’s illiberal alliance comes a close second. The invasion of Ukraine shattered the unity of the Visegrad Group, a regional alliance between Poland, Czechia, Slovakia and Hungary; Poland’s then ruling Law and Justice party threw its support behind Ukraine, while Orbán and his Fidesz party sought to delay sanctions on Russia and military support for Kyiv. At the time, both the governments of Slovakia and Czechia were led by pro-EU parties, so Orbán was isolated regionally.
Fico’s return to power in October 2023 marked the beginning of a new chapter, as the Slovak strongman adopted elements of Hungary’s anti-Ukraine and anti-EU playbook throughout his campaign. Then in September 2024, the Freedom Party (FPÖ) won Austria’s general election. The FPÖ was unable to form a government because other parties refused to work with it, but Orbán travelled to Vienna in November to sign a joint declaration with FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl, reaffirming their commitment to maintaining “friendly and neighbourly ties”.
Next up will be the Czech election in 2025, which could see billionaire and Orbán ally Andrej Babiš, return to power after his right-wing populist ANO party achieved a landslide victory in recent regional elections. Babiš has said that a Trump win would be “good for Europe” because he promised to end the war in Ukraine “immediately”. In 2022, just after Russia’s full-scale invasion, Babiš came out strongly for Ukraine but his optimism has waned as his appetite to seize on war fatigue and anti-immigration sentiment has increased. Orbán allies and his supporters “understand that something is changing in our society and they know to go after voters who feel abandoned”, says Milan Nič, a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
There are obstacles that could still prevent the “Age of Orbán”. Illiberals from across central and eastern Europe are sympathetic to his rallying cries but those in western Europe may not be. Italy’s pragmatic prime minister Giorgia Meloni supports Orbán’s ultraconservative crusade on so-called “traditional family values” but has pledged unwavering support for Ukraine—for now. Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy is also not a member of Orbán’s new grouping in the European Parliament—Patriots for Europe. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally was one of the group’s co-founders, but Le Pen, the mother superior of Europe’s far-right, is likely to clash with Trump should he inflict trade tariffs that affect French business.
Then there is Orbán’s relationship with Trump. There were celebrations in Budapest following Trump’s victory but the two men differ significantly on China. If Trump’s actions negatively impact Chinese business in Hungary—which, in 2023, received 44 per cent of all Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Europe—Orbán is likely to push back, especially as regional leaders, such as Fico, are following his pro-China approach. On 5th November, during a state visit to China, Fico announced a “strategic partnership” with Beijing after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping.
This potential crisis point with the incoming US administration could still present an opportunity for Europe’s illiberals. “Orbán might try to present himself as a mediator between China, the EU, and the US,” says Edit Zgut-Przybylska, assistant professor at the Institute of Philosophy and Sociology at the Polish Academy of Sciences. “He will most certainly take advantage of Trump’s victory to puff himself up on the global political stage despite Hungary's importance remaining small.”
Trump’s return has emboldened Orbán’s vision for Europe, offering a glimpse into a future where illiberalism, ultraconservatism and scepticism of the EU dominate. As we enter what could be the “Age of Orbán”, Europe must face this anti-democratic tide that shows no sign of receding.
