After Brexit, could France be next?

As the reality of Brexit begins to sink in in the UK, news of the referendum result is dividing public opinion on the other side of the channel: the remaining 27 EU member states face the prospect of a “domino effect.” The European Union has lost its second largest economy and eurosceptic parties across the continent have begun to speak up about whether they want to “Remain” EU members or not.

Leading all this is Front National leader Marine Le Pen in France, who has become the voice of a rising Eurosceptic movement in the country driven by unemployment (which currently stands at above ten per cent), economic uncertainty and the terrorist attacks in Paris last year. On Friday morning Le Pen turned to social media and described Brexit as a “Victory for Liberty.” She continued “we must now have the same referendum in France and other EU countries."

Le Pen has been joined by the Front National’s Vice President, her niece and fellow Front National politician Marion Maréchal-Le Pen as well as most of her other FN deputies, in hoping that “Brexit” will soon become “Frexit.”

One difference between France and the UK is that the political party calling for a referendum is not in office. In the weeks leading up to the British referendum, our mainstream parties publicly expressed their support for the “Remain” campaign and made clear their commitment to European integration.

President François Hollande has made it clear that the consequences of Britain’s “Leave” vote—which will no doubt be discussed in an EU summit next week—will be severe. In Hollande’s eyes, punishing the UK for its decision is the best way to prevent a case of serial European referendums. Feelings of disappointment are felt elsewhere on the French political spectrum. The leading Republican nominee Alain Juppé called Brexit “un choc historique” (an historic clash) for the United Kingdom and the Union, yet he is convinced that its undesirable effects will spur the European Union to engage in constructive discussion concerning reform.

A strong economic relationship with the UK has meant France’s political figures supported Britain remaining in the EU. Yet public opinion is in a different place. A recent study by German foundation Bertelsmann Stiftung that surveyed 11000 people across the previously 28 member states revealed that the French were Europe’s strongest Brexit supporters. This is not surprising. Away from the microphones and cameras, the average French citizen will respond differently when asked about the UK’s place within the Union than they would otherwise. The fact is that Britain has always had one foot out of the door, and frankly, that comes close to offending many French citizens.

Prior to the referendum Cameron embarked on his EU renegotiations and landed “concessions.” In the opinion of many French citizens, the UK was barely a member at this point; it seemed that it was offered a deal in which it got a lot of benefits without the constraints put on other EU member states. The French position is quite simple if not brutal: If you want in, commit. If not, then leave.

The rise in popularity of the Front National goes to show that France has its fair share of isolationism. But there is another factor in all of this: self-interest. With London out of Europe, many of us are convinced that Paris will become the next big EU financial platform, and benefit from all the jobs and investment that comes with such a title. As half of the EU’s power couple (the other member being Germany), France could very well become a strong financial member and lead negotiations for the long overdue reforms. However, France’s static labour market and excessive business tax, may mean that other European cities like Frankfurt and Dublin are in a better position than Paris.

With the country’s Presidential elections next year, France’s EU membership is at stake. With Le Pen becoming a strong candidate for the primary, others like Nicolas Sarkozy, Juppé, and Hollande must not be tempted by the same opportunism that saw David Cameron gamble with the United Kingdom’s future. Otherwise, they too may have to resign in the face of defeat.