Fidel Castro recently made headlines by bluntly admitting to the American journalist Jeffrey Goldberg that, “the Cuban model doesn't even work for us anymore.” This has prompted speculation about whether his brother Raúl’s tentative steps to increase the role of the private sector in Cuba are the start of a plan to transform the Caribbean island into a market economy. Indeed, Fidel’s brother Raúl has allowed small-scale private firms to be set up in some sectors, and has announced that 500,000 workers in state-owned firms will be laid off, with the aim that they will find jobs in the private sector. Goldberg argues that relaxing American sanctions may speed the process of reform. Even those who currently advocate a hard-line stance concede that some limited liberalisation could occur. Stephen Johnson, an analyst at the Heritage Foundation, suggests that, “Obama could urge Congress to expand the list of what can be exported under the embargo's cash and carry sales rules that now contemplate food, clothing, and medicine.” For his part, President Obama recently announced that restrictions on travel to Cuba would be further reduced, although many feel that he has not gone far enough. Indeed, Amnesty International recently criticised him for not scrapping the sanctions completely. However, it is dangerous to assume that these reforms will transform the Cuban economy. Firstly, they are extremely modest considering the extent to which Cuba has retained the communist economic system. Even if the proposed public-sector cutbacks are fully carried out and the workers absorbed into the private sector, over three-quarters of the Cuban workforce will still be employed the state, the largest proportion outside North Korea. At the same time, the Chinese experience, which may indicate the direction of any Cuban reforms, suggests that a gradualist strategy is likely to proceed at a glacial rate and leave large parts of the economy untouched by market forces. More importantly, the evidence suggests that the success of economic reform depends on simultaneous political liberalisation. Indeed, a World Bank study of 25 transition economies during the early to mid 1990s concluded that, “the existence of a vibrant civil society” was the most important factor in determining the speed and extent of the economic change. While countries like Poland have fully embraced market forces, Vladimir Putin’s quasi-totalitarianism in Russia has led to the state asserting a greater role in the economy. Even if they are genuine about loosening economic controls, any reforming instincts that the Castro brothers hold, will be tempered by the desire to use state economic power to consolidate their political position. Because of this, and the fact that the Cuban government continues to systematically abuse human rights, government and institutions around the world should heed the voices of dissidents and make radical political changes in the Cuban political system a prerequisite for any change in relations. Indeed, given that both Raúl and Fidel Castro are both elderly and in poor health, it might be wiser for the US to focus on uniting democratic anti-Castro forces and building up pro-democracy institutions (such as independent trade unions). Another half-century of the Cuban revolution, or even another ten years, would be a tragedy for its people.
