What does China think of the Hinkley delay?

In July, a government review into the Hinkley Point C Nuclear power plant was announced. China, which is expected to build the £18bn project along with EDF of France‚ has not taken kindly to Theresa May’s decision. In an opinion piece in the Financial Times last month the Chinese ambassador to the UK, Liu Xiaoming, emphasised that “mutual trust is the very foundation” of China’s relationship with the UK, and that the decision to delay Hinkley was throwing that trust into question. Indeed, Hinkley was the “flagship” scheme under which Chinese President Xi Jinping and David Cameron entered the “golden era”—they even bonded over fish and chips on Xi’s visit to the UK last year. Britain has a new prime minister—but that’s little excuse for roadblocks being thrown up.

Chinese people like to talk about shou xin as an important virtue to have when you have made a promise. The term literally translates as “guarding trust,” is widely used in China between friends and in business deals, and certainly applies when it comes to the contract for a nuclear power station. It is this shortage of shou xin that the Chinese government is playing up in protest against the announcement to delay Hinkley.

What’s possibly worse for China than losing faith in Hinkley is the country losing face. Domestically, China has been building its own nuclear reactors for over 20 years; last year, six reactors went live in China, with eight more commissioned to be built domestically. But as a country eager to position itself as an exporter of nuclear energy, Hinkley represents for China the inroad to the European market. Undermining the project itself undermines China’s global nuclear aspirations.

The row over Hinkley has failed to pique the same interest—or concern—in China as it has in the UK. News coverage of Hinkley was relatively low in volume from the media. Commentators were, however, quick to make their feelings felt: in an opinion piece from Xinhua, the government’s mouthpiece, the author queried May’s “suspicious approach” towards Chinese investment in the project. Published only in English, the piece was clearly for British eyes. The accusations were more explicit than those from the ambassador. China “cannot tolerate any unwanted accusation against its sincere and benign willingness for win-win collaboration,” the piece read.

Cui Hongjian, a director at the China Institute of International Studies, criticised the argument that says if Hinkley is scrapped altogether, China should be “understanding” of the decision. Cui called this an “unreasonable demand” and one formed by “muddled logic.” At the same time, Cui accuses Theresa May of trying to score political points by appearing more cautious and “middle ground" in order to contrast the approach adopted by David Cameron.

The Chinese public is paying little attention to Hinkley either way—only those with a vested interest or a keen ear for current affairs are likely to know much about it. But it wouldn’t take much to stir up patriotic sentiment if push came to shove. Few are aware that the Sino-British “special relationship” exists (people are more likely to think it is with Russia). A family friend told me that it’s hard to keep track of all of Xi Jinping’s foreign visits given that he made 14 last year; Britain was just one of them. Nevertheless, Xi's excursions abroad are seen as stretching China’s diplomatic influence far and wide. And sure enough, if you mention the Queen and a royal banquet, people start to recall the visit to Britain and the fact that William and Kate were present too. What were the deals made? No idea.

Hinkley is key if China is to fulfil its ambitions and become an exporter in the nuclear field, but it is hardly its only chance. China is looking for more opportunities abroad all the time. So far, the Chinese company behind Hinkley, CNNC, has also signed up to build nuclear reactors in Argentina, Pakistan and Sudan. China wants to export 30 homegrown nuclear units by 2030 as part of its “One Belt, One Road” initiative. This proposes to revive and fortify relationships along China's ancient trade routes. Announced in 2013, “One Belt” refers to The Silk Road that ran through Kazakhstan and Turkey and “One Road” to the maritime trail that reached as far as Africa.

China is being patient when it comes to Hinkley—and Xi told May exactly that at the G20 summit in Hangzhou a few days ago. But should the UK fail to deliver on Cameron’s promises, China will lose face and take huge offence. The Sino-British boat may capsize, and damages may truly be irreparable. China will go on searching for new partners along its new routes of economic expansion. The question regarding Hinkley is “just how much does the UK need to stay on China’s good side?”