Between 1992 and 2002, it looked as though Russia lost 6.6m people. But the influx of up to 15m migrants by 2009 changes the picture
Hamid drives a clapped-out Soviet bus in a Russian mining colony beyond the Arctic Circle, where temperatures regularly plunge below -40C. Yet this native of desert Uzbekistan has few regrets about migrating to Putin’s empire. “In my country there are more men than jobs—in Russia there are more jobs than men,” he says.
Demographic collapse is endlessly cited as the Achilles heel of Russia. It is true that native Russian birth rates and life expectancy have been falling over the past two decades. Yet there has also been a huge, and under-recorded, influx of people like Hamid. Russia is now an immigrant society. In Moscow and other major cities, migrants from the former Soviet states of central Asia, the Caucasus and eastern Europe do the work that natives turn down. Tajiks sweep the streets, Moldovans wait tables and Uzbeks work on construction sites. The country has become the second most popular destination for migrants after the US.
Visa-free regimes between Russia and most of her former colonies, plus the corruption of officialdom, means few people bother immigrating formally. So the numbers are deceptive: experts agree the minimum migrant population is over 8.5m. Off the record, diplomats admit the true figure is over 15m and rising fast.
Between 1992 and 2008, Russia lost nearly 7m people. But if you add migrants to the calculations, it now has roughly 8m more workers than it lost. In short, though the ethnic Russian population has fallen, Russia does not have a demographic crisis.
The Kremlin is trying to discreetly fashion a more multicultural society. In April, Putin said that for those who wanted to tie their future to Russia “the door will always be open.” In September, the head of the Federal Migration Service admitted that migrants are key to improving the demographic situation. And the labour laws with Kazakhstan and Belarus have been further liberalised.
But capitalising on immigration involves more than just letting people in. Life for migrants is tough; most live in penury often harassed by skinheads. Unprotected by Russia’s largely ignored labour code, they are an underclass that risks not only driving down workers’ wages and rights, but prolonging the lives of defunct Soviet factories. If Putin’s plans do not include strengthening the rule of law, they will stall Russia’s modernisation—and further devalue what it means to be a “Russian citizen.”
“Rethinking Russia,” Ben Judah’s report for the European Council on Foreign Relations, will be published in April 2011
Also in this month's magazine: Mark Leonard on Putin and Medvedev's different visions of how to modernise Russia. Click here for more...
Hamid drives a clapped-out Soviet bus in a Russian mining colony beyond the Arctic Circle, where temperatures regularly plunge below -40C. Yet this native of desert Uzbekistan has few regrets about migrating to Putin’s empire. “In my country there are more men than jobs—in Russia there are more jobs than men,” he says.
Demographic collapse is endlessly cited as the Achilles heel of Russia. It is true that native Russian birth rates and life expectancy have been falling over the past two decades. Yet there has also been a huge, and under-recorded, influx of people like Hamid. Russia is now an immigrant society. In Moscow and other major cities, migrants from the former Soviet states of central Asia, the Caucasus and eastern Europe do the work that natives turn down. Tajiks sweep the streets, Moldovans wait tables and Uzbeks work on construction sites. The country has become the second most popular destination for migrants after the US.
Visa-free regimes between Russia and most of her former colonies, plus the corruption of officialdom, means few people bother immigrating formally. So the numbers are deceptive: experts agree the minimum migrant population is over 8.5m. Off the record, diplomats admit the true figure is over 15m and rising fast.
Between 1992 and 2008, Russia lost nearly 7m people. But if you add migrants to the calculations, it now has roughly 8m more workers than it lost. In short, though the ethnic Russian population has fallen, Russia does not have a demographic crisis.
The Kremlin is trying to discreetly fashion a more multicultural society. In April, Putin said that for those who wanted to tie their future to Russia “the door will always be open.” In September, the head of the Federal Migration Service admitted that migrants are key to improving the demographic situation. And the labour laws with Kazakhstan and Belarus have been further liberalised.
But capitalising on immigration involves more than just letting people in. Life for migrants is tough; most live in penury often harassed by skinheads. Unprotected by Russia’s largely ignored labour code, they are an underclass that risks not only driving down workers’ wages and rights, but prolonging the lives of defunct Soviet factories. If Putin’s plans do not include strengthening the rule of law, they will stall Russia’s modernisation—and further devalue what it means to be a “Russian citizen.”
“Rethinking Russia,” Ben Judah’s report for the European Council on Foreign Relations, will be published in April 2011
Also in this month's magazine: Mark Leonard on Putin and Medvedev's different visions of how to modernise Russia. Click here for more...
