Texan Rick Perry—who could be the next Republican president—thinks you’re going to hell
On 2nd November, America will go to the polls in the long-awaited midterm elections. With the Republicans bent on wresting control of both houses of congress from the Democrats, the two parties have been spending money like never before. The midterms are on course to cost $5bn (£3bn)—making them the most expensive US elections in history, dwarfing the $1bn spent on the 2008 presidential election.
There are grim omens for the Dems. Barack Obama has crossed an ominous frontier: a Gallup poll in early October showed his job disapproval ratings (48 per cent) have nosed ahead of his approvals (46 per cent). More than 40m Americans—a record number—are now on food stamps, which bodes badly for turnout. Women voters, who are more likely to be Democrats than men by around ten percentage points, have deserted the party. An October ABC poll shows this gap has narrowed to three percentage points. And, looking at the financial markets, the rise in certain stocks—energy and the for-profit school sector—show that some investors have made big bets on the Republicans winning at least one of the houses.
But the Dems are fighting back with a storm of attack ads in marginal seats, while pouring cash into securing decent turnouts from African-Americans and students. Michelle Obama has embarked on a six-state tour to appeal to women voters.
In the senate, the Republicans look like holding all their vulnerable seats and winning six more. Another six are toss-ups which will probably be decided by turnout; the Dems insist they have the cash and the get-out-the-vote operation to hold them.
Perhaps, but the question gripping Washington is what happens if the Republicans win three of them, leaving the senate tied with each party on 50 seats. Vice-president Joe Biden would then hold the casting vote, as Dick Cheney did briefly in George W Bush’s first term. But back then one Republican senator (Jim Jeffords of Vermont) became an independent and the Democrats had their majority—which carried with it the crucial right to pick the chairmen of the senate committees.
Could it happen again? Step forward, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. Though once Al Gore’s running mate, Lieberman is no longer a Democrat after losing his party primary. He won re-election as an independent but still caucuses with the Democrats. His close friend John McCain will exercise all his powers to persuade Lieberman to switch and give the Republicans the majority—probably arguing that only Joe can prevent a humiliating scuttle from the Afghan war, and stop Obama’s creeping disengagement from US ally Israel.
THE LAME-DUCK SESSION
Whoever wins, the current congress will sit in a lame-duck session until January. And the country still has no budget—the government is being financed by short-term continuing resolutions. The Democrats could use their majorities to add amendments to the next continuing resolution: these could be on carbon emissions, abortion rights, or any measure that will energise their own base but force the Republicans to block it. That could trigger a shutdown of the federal government. The last shutdown was in 1995, from which Bill Clinton emerged well while Newt Gingrich and the Republicans got the blame.
The Republicans have their own plans for the lame-duck period—like refusing to authorise the spending for the extra staff required to implement the bills Obama has signed into law. The financial reform act, for instance, requires an extra 800 jobs for the Securities and Exchange Commission and probably more than that for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Republicans are plotting to just say no. And now that they have seen polls suggesting that 23 per cent of Democrats want Obama’s health reform act repealed, they could eviscerate it by blocking funds.
THE GREAT REPUBLICAN HOPE
Looking ahead to the 2012 presidential election, the census data is now in and the electoral college will be changing accordingly (see Washington watch, June 2010). Had those changes applied in 2008, Obama would still have won, but he would have lost six electoral college votes to McCain. It’s great news for the Republicans.
So we will soon be hearing a lot about the man Republican insiders are backing as their next presidential candidate, Texas governor Rick Perry. He has a thoughtfully-timed book coming out just after the midterms, Fed Up! Our Fight to Save America from Washington. It should do better than his last book, on how the values of Boy Scouts would save America.
Perry, the son of ranchers, is a former airforce captain who married his childhood sweetheart. He started his career as a Democrat but soon switched parties. He believes global warming “ain’t proven,” which lets him back big oil, coal and gas.
Since he replaced George W Bush as governor in 2000, Perry has vetoed a bill banning the death penalty for the mentally impaired and limited late-term abortions. He’s also stopped a state income tax and modified tort law to cut medical malpractice insurance rates by 30 per cent, attracting a wave of doctors to his state. He supports teaching creationism in schools and says the Jews are ordained by God to rule Israel. He once endorsed a sermon by a pastor who said those who don’t accept Christ are “going straight to hell with a nonstop ticket,” causing Texan singer Kinky Friedman to comment that Perry “doesn’t think very differently from the Taliban.”
So Perry is perfectly positioned to attract the Tea party activists, the evangelical Christians, big business donations, the pro-life and Israel lobbies and country club Republicans. He’s the man to watch.
On 2nd November, America will go to the polls in the long-awaited midterm elections. With the Republicans bent on wresting control of both houses of congress from the Democrats, the two parties have been spending money like never before. The midterms are on course to cost $5bn (£3bn)—making them the most expensive US elections in history, dwarfing the $1bn spent on the 2008 presidential election.
There are grim omens for the Dems. Barack Obama has crossed an ominous frontier: a Gallup poll in early October showed his job disapproval ratings (48 per cent) have nosed ahead of his approvals (46 per cent). More than 40m Americans—a record number—are now on food stamps, which bodes badly for turnout. Women voters, who are more likely to be Democrats than men by around ten percentage points, have deserted the party. An October ABC poll shows this gap has narrowed to three percentage points. And, looking at the financial markets, the rise in certain stocks—energy and the for-profit school sector—show that some investors have made big bets on the Republicans winning at least one of the houses.
But the Dems are fighting back with a storm of attack ads in marginal seats, while pouring cash into securing decent turnouts from African-Americans and students. Michelle Obama has embarked on a six-state tour to appeal to women voters.
In the senate, the Republicans look like holding all their vulnerable seats and winning six more. Another six are toss-ups which will probably be decided by turnout; the Dems insist they have the cash and the get-out-the-vote operation to hold them.
Perhaps, but the question gripping Washington is what happens if the Republicans win three of them, leaving the senate tied with each party on 50 seats. Vice-president Joe Biden would then hold the casting vote, as Dick Cheney did briefly in George W Bush’s first term. But back then one Republican senator (Jim Jeffords of Vermont) became an independent and the Democrats had their majority—which carried with it the crucial right to pick the chairmen of the senate committees.
Could it happen again? Step forward, Joe Lieberman of Connecticut. Though once Al Gore’s running mate, Lieberman is no longer a Democrat after losing his party primary. He won re-election as an independent but still caucuses with the Democrats. His close friend John McCain will exercise all his powers to persuade Lieberman to switch and give the Republicans the majority—probably arguing that only Joe can prevent a humiliating scuttle from the Afghan war, and stop Obama’s creeping disengagement from US ally Israel.
THE LAME-DUCK SESSION
Whoever wins, the current congress will sit in a lame-duck session until January. And the country still has no budget—the government is being financed by short-term continuing resolutions. The Democrats could use their majorities to add amendments to the next continuing resolution: these could be on carbon emissions, abortion rights, or any measure that will energise their own base but force the Republicans to block it. That could trigger a shutdown of the federal government. The last shutdown was in 1995, from which Bill Clinton emerged well while Newt Gingrich and the Republicans got the blame.
The Republicans have their own plans for the lame-duck period—like refusing to authorise the spending for the extra staff required to implement the bills Obama has signed into law. The financial reform act, for instance, requires an extra 800 jobs for the Securities and Exchange Commission and probably more than that for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Republicans are plotting to just say no. And now that they have seen polls suggesting that 23 per cent of Democrats want Obama’s health reform act repealed, they could eviscerate it by blocking funds.
THE GREAT REPUBLICAN HOPE
Looking ahead to the 2012 presidential election, the census data is now in and the electoral college will be changing accordingly (see Washington watch, June 2010). Had those changes applied in 2008, Obama would still have won, but he would have lost six electoral college votes to McCain. It’s great news for the Republicans.
So we will soon be hearing a lot about the man Republican insiders are backing as their next presidential candidate, Texas governor Rick Perry. He has a thoughtfully-timed book coming out just after the midterms, Fed Up! Our Fight to Save America from Washington. It should do better than his last book, on how the values of Boy Scouts would save America.
Perry, the son of ranchers, is a former airforce captain who married his childhood sweetheart. He started his career as a Democrat but soon switched parties. He believes global warming “ain’t proven,” which lets him back big oil, coal and gas.
Since he replaced George W Bush as governor in 2000, Perry has vetoed a bill banning the death penalty for the mentally impaired and limited late-term abortions. He’s also stopped a state income tax and modified tort law to cut medical malpractice insurance rates by 30 per cent, attracting a wave of doctors to his state. He supports teaching creationism in schools and says the Jews are ordained by God to rule Israel. He once endorsed a sermon by a pastor who said those who don’t accept Christ are “going straight to hell with a nonstop ticket,” causing Texan singer Kinky Friedman to comment that Perry “doesn’t think very differently from the Taliban.”
So Perry is perfectly positioned to attract the Tea party activists, the evangelical Christians, big business donations, the pro-life and Israel lobbies and country club Republicans. He’s the man to watch.
