Losing their religion: only 15 per cent of Americans attend a mainstream Protestant church
The November midterms are shaping up to be the most contested in history. Never before have the two parties nominated so many candidates. Out of the 435 seats, the Republicans are running in 430 and the Democrats are contesting 410. And because of deaths in office, not since 1962 have so many senate seats (37) been up for election in a midterm year. There remain a small handful of seats too safe for the opposition party to bother fielding a candidate, but the record number reflects the intensity of the battle for Congress. The Republicans need to win 39 seats in the house to take control, and ten in the senate to overcome the casting vote of the vice-president if the senate splits 50-50. With unemployment nudging 10 per cent and the recovery fading, the Democrats have to hope that Barack Obama can turn into Ronald Reagan. The Gipper ran a legendary damage-limitation campaign in the 1982 midterms, during similar economic straits, and the Republicans lost just 26 seats in the house while keeping their 54 seats in the senate. Reagan staved off disaster by running against Jimmy Carter and inflation, and Obama is trying to repeat the trick by running against George W Bush. The difference is that in 1982, Reagan's conservative base was staunchly loyal, while Obama's progressive base is now dismayed and demoralised. Conventional wisdom holds that the Democrats are likely to benefit from the civil war in the Republican party between the moderate establishment and the tea party militants. But those battles took place in the primaries, and now the Republicans have chosen their candidates they are likely to coalesce. (Assuming that they avoid kooky theories like those of Dan Maes, the Republican nominee to become governor of Colorado, who has said Denver's plans for a rental bicycle scheme like London's are part of a sinister UN plot.) THE DEMOCRAT CIVIL WAR The Democrats' civil war is more problematic. Beneath the surface, the battle between the Clintons and Obama, which began with the race for the 2008 presidential nomination, has been quietly continuing this summer. The most visible part of the iceberg has been in Colorado, where Bill Clinton supported Andrew Romanoff for the senate while Obama's White House backed incumbent Michael Bennet. Bennet won that battle, but the president's victory was tarnished by Gallup's announcement that Bill's nationwide approval ratings were higher than Barack's. Bill has been out on the stump for the Democrats—on the time-honoured principle of helping those that backed the Clinton ticket. Despite the distractions of his daughter's wedding, he has been holding rallies and fundraisers for congressional candidates in Iowa and across New England—where, not coincidentally, the first primaries and caucuses are held in the race to become each party's candidate for president. Bill helped save Democratic seats from near-certain defeat in Arkansas and Pennsylvania but pointedly did not help the Missouri senate bid of Robin Carnahan, who did not back Hillary. And when Obama declined to help Kendrick Meek in the Florida senate race, Bill flew in to help this rising star of black politics. So Bill is now the party's favourite star of the hustings, kindly making himself available to those embattled Democrats who don't want to be too closely associated with the president. It's too soon to say if this lays the ground for Hillary to mount a primary challenge to a battered Obama in 2012. But if the Democrats suffer badly in the midterms and the economy continues to sputter, Hillary will have a decision to make. She has the highest approval ratings and profile of any member of Obama's cabinet and has been careful to distance herself from Iraq and Afghanistan, leaving them to the White House. If she does run against Obama, she is likely to ensure the defeat of the divided Democrats, as Teddy Kennedy's primary challenge helped sink Carter in 1980. The alternative would be for Obama to be persuaded to step down for the good of the party, with the promise of a splendidly high-profile job, and let the Clintons return to the White House. AMERICANS LEAVE CHURCH It's often said that the biggest difference between Europe and the US is American religiosity. But according to a new survey by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, every tenth American adult is now a former Catholic and departures outnumber new members to that church by four to one. Were it not for Hispanic immigration the situation would be far worse—Hispanics account for one in three adult Catholics and almost half of all Catholics aged 18-29. And the Protestants are not doing much better—at least the mainline groups of Episcopalians, Presbyterians, Methodists, Lutherans, Unitarians and Baptists. A study released last year by the Barna Group, a non-profit religious research centre, found that over the past 50 years, mainline church membership dropped by more than one-quarter to roughly 20m people. Only 15 per cent of all US adults now associate with a mainline Protestant church, and more than a third of them are over 65. Evangelical churches prosper, but the Pew report notes that the fastest-growing "religion" in the US is "unaffiliated." It accounts for one American in six, and over a quarter of those aged 18-29. TEENAGERS OUT OF WORK A melancholy milestone was passed this summer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates that, for the first time in US history, there were more American workers aged between 16 and 19 who were unemployed than employed. Even in the depths of the 1982 recession, there were 40 per cent employed and only 23 per cent out of work in this age group.
The November midterms are shaping up to be the most contested in history. Never before have the two parties nominated so many candidates. Out of the 435 seats, the Republicans are running in 430 and the Democrats are contesting 410. And because of deaths in office, not since 1962 have so many senate seats (37) been up for election in a midterm year. There remain a small handful of seats too safe for the opposition party to bother fielding a candidate, but the record number reflects the intensity of the battle for Congress. The Republicans need to win 39 seats in the house to take control, and ten in the senate to overcome the casting vote of the vice-president if the senate splits 50-50. With unemployment nudging 10 per cent and the recovery fading, the Democrats have to hope that Barack Obama can turn into Ronald Reagan. The Gipper ran a legendary damage-limitation campaign in the 1982 midterms, during similar economic straits, and the Republicans lost just 26 seats in the house while keeping their 54 seats in the senate. Reagan staved off disaster by running against Jimmy Carter and inflation, and Obama is trying to repeat the trick by running against George W Bush. The difference is that in 1982, Reagan's conservative base was staunchly loyal, while Obama's progressive base is now dismayed and demoralised. Conventional wisdom holds that the Democrats are likely to benefit from the civil war in the Republican party between the moderate establishment and the tea party militants. But those battles took place in the primaries, and now the Republicans have chosen their candidates they are likely to coalesce. (Assuming that they avoid kooky theories like those of Dan Maes, the Republican nominee to become governor of Colorado, who has said Denver's plans for a rental bicycle scheme like London's are part of a sinister UN plot.) THE DEMOCRAT CIVIL WAR The Democrats' civil war is more problematic. Beneath the surface, the battle between the Clintons and Obama, which began with the race for the 2008 presidential nomination, has been quietly continuing this summer. The most visible part of the iceberg has been in Colorado, where Bill Clinton supported Andrew Romanoff for the senate while Obama's White House backed incumbent Michael Bennet. Bennet won that battle, but the president's victory was tarnished by Gallup's announcement that Bill's nationwide approval ratings were higher than Barack's. Bill has been out on the stump for the Democrats—on the time-honoured principle of helping those that backed the Clinton ticket. Despite the distractions of his daughter's wedding, he has been holding rallies and fundraisers for congressional candidates in Iowa and across New England—where, not coincidentally, the first primaries and caucuses are held in the race to become each party's candidate for president. Bill helped save Democratic seats from near-certain defeat in Arkansas and Pennsylvania but pointedly did not help the Missouri senate bid of Robin Carnahan, who did not back Hillary. And when Obama declined to help Kendrick Meek in the Florida senate race, Bill flew in to help this rising star of black politics. So Bill is now the party's favourite star of the hustings, kindly making himself available to those embattled Democrats who don't want to be too closely associated with the president. It's too soon to say if this lays the ground for Hillary to mount a primary challenge to a battered Obama in 2012. But if the Democrats suffer badly in the midterms and the economy continues to sputter, Hillary will have a decision to make. She has the highest approval ratings and profile of any member of Obama's cabinet and has been careful to distance herself from Iraq and Afghanistan, leaving them to the White House. If she does run against Obama, she is likely to ensure the defeat of the divided Democrats, as Teddy Kennedy's primary challenge helped sink Carter in 1980. The alternative would be for Obama to be persuaded to step down for the good of the party, with the promise of a splendidly high-profile job, and let the Clintons return to the White House. AMERICANS LEAVE CHURCH It's often said that the biggest difference between Europe and the US is American religiosity. But according to a new survey by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life, every tenth American adult is now a former Catholic and departures outnumber new members to that church by four to one. Were it not for Hispanic immigration the situation would be far worse—Hispanics account for one in three adult Catholics and almost half of all Catholics aged 18-29. And the Protestants are not doing much better—at least the mainline groups of Episcopalians, Presbyterians, Methodists, Lutherans, Unitarians and Baptists. A study released last year by the Barna Group, a non-profit religious research centre, found that over the past 50 years, mainline church membership dropped by more than one-quarter to roughly 20m people. Only 15 per cent of all US adults now associate with a mainline Protestant church, and more than a third of them are over 65. Evangelical churches prosper, but the Pew report notes that the fastest-growing "religion" in the US is "unaffiliated." It accounts for one American in six, and over a quarter of those aged 18-29. TEENAGERS OUT OF WORK A melancholy milestone was passed this summer. The Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates that, for the first time in US history, there were more American workers aged between 16 and 19 who were unemployed than employed. Even in the depths of the 1982 recession, there were 40 per cent employed and only 23 per cent out of work in this age group.
