A furore arose when four men died during this year's Great North Run, the biggest half-marathon event in the world. Under pressure to give a reason, the organisers blamed the "hot weather," which seemed to satisfy everyone. But it was in fact a blistering 18 degrees Celsius.
The reactions to the deaths illustrated our great reluctance to accept that events may occur at random. Only eight runners have died during the previous 24 events. But sometimes an extreme event happens at random, and this year four people died.
Whatever measures the organisers or UK Athletics put in place to prevent a repeat of the fatalities are almost certain to "work." The most likely number of deaths next year, by far, is zero. So credit will be given, quite inappropriately, to any steps taken to reduce deaths in next year's race.
You can't give it away
It's hard giving money away: Milton Friedman once suggested scattering it by helicopter. The government is certainly finding it hard at present. The flat-rate, universal child benefit is easy to administer and easy to apply for. The result is a take-up rate of 98 per cent. Other, more complex benefits do less well. The take-up rate for council tax benefit is estimated to be between 68 and 75 per cent. For the pensioners minimum income guarantee it is 63-74 per cent. But the much-trumpeted child trust fund is the real loser. Vouchers are sent out to everyone claiming child benefit, but only 30-50 per cent of recipients have set up schemes for their children. One reason is complexity. Applicants must study a form at least eight pages long, and are given a hotline phone number for more "detailed" information.
