Aquinas and Descartes would have been outraged; Hume and Russell delighted; Nietzsche might have added "I told you so." But as posters on buses across the country proclaimed "There's probably no God. Now stop worrying and enjoy your life," it was the Advertising Standards Authority who got to judge. Their verdict: this wasn't misleading, but simply an opinion that was "not capable of objective substantiation."
The word "probably" was well-chosen—inspired, perhaps, by Carlsberg's ASA-approved boast: "probably the best beer in the world." Proving God's (or anything's) non-existence would have been much tougher. Even arch-atheist Richard Dawkins settles for "there is almost certainly no God." We can't even disprove the Loch Ness monster.
David Hume made probably the best case for the improbability of God in his Dialogues Concerning Natural Religion (1779), which ripped into evidence-based attempts to prove the Christian deity's existence. Look around the world, Hume said. What supports the idea that a benevolent, omniscient, omnipotent designer made it all? Just as likely that it was created by a team of lesser gods, or a decrepit god who subsequently died, or impersonal natural processes. Proportion your belief to the evidence and it is at least as probable that one of these is true as that a unique all-powerful creator exists. And the existence of evil tips the balance. Free will doesn't explain illness, famine, earthquakes. At most, it points to an impersonal and indifferent world-maker.
And yet Blaise Pascal (1623-1662) had already pointed out that a rational gambler wouldn't stake everything on hell not existing—because it's reasonable to worry about even the outside chance of eternal torment. Back on the buses, Christians have already responded with various "God definitely exists" counter-campaigns. But if they want to avoid misleading advertising—and scare a few cynics into faith on the way—they might do better with "There might be a God. Start worrying and prepare for the Day of Judgement, just in case."
Email Nigel Warburton your queries or topics for discussion in future columns at question@prospect-magazine.co.uk
