We've been told to expect both a BNP breakthrough and a disaster for Labour in June's Euro elections, writes Peter Kellner. But might infighting keep the far right out and the PM home and dry? The proportional representation system means both UKIP and the BNP will have enough support between them to win seats—but only if they were a single party. A split vote could deny both, especially given the bad blood between the two.
Back in 2004, UKIP used the spectacle of Robert Kilroy-Silk to attract attention, helping them win 16 per cent of the vote and 12 seats. This time, with voters returning to the Tories, their vote is likely to fall. The BNP won a 5 per cent share last time, but no seats, despite substantial local elections gains and help from anti-immigration scares surrounding the Sangatte refugee camp. This time they too look likely to slip back, with only an outside chance in the north of England.
Bickering between UKIP and the BNP will mean more seats for the big parties too—which could save Brown's blushes, or at least improve on Labour's previous disaster of just 19 seats, a result largely blamed on the unpopularity of the Iraq war. This time, Gordon could do badly by any normal measure and still recover lost ground. Then again, further losses would be truly cataclysmic—and, scenting blood, that's what pundits are praying for.
Time for MPs to choose: quit or be culled
Who would be an MP? It's a thankless job, and then they vote you out. Thus goes the new wisdom among glum Labour MPs, who, having spied Brown's plummeting poll ratings, are considering an early bath. Rumours suggest home secretary Jacqui Smith might soon follow ex-minster Ruth Kelly in quitting—and a host of other more junior MPs have already thrown in the towel, including former environment minister Chris Mullin and party fixer Fraser Kemp.
Those sticking it out see more trouble ahead. David Cameron recently announced plans—sure to go down a storm in the tearoom—to cull 60 MPs. Politics, says Dave, could go on with "10 per cent fewer MPs without any trouble at all," but just try telling them that. Such a spring clean would also mean redrawing all constituency boundaries and a massive free-for-all at the election after next. In other words: it's a total non-starter.
Another year, another Tory headache
If Cameron's promised cull isn't bad enough, MPs will soon face the wrath of disgruntled ex-Tory director general Paul Judge, who seems to have had a falling out with his former friends in politics. Judge now plans to take revenge by launching "Jury Team"—a top-secret wheeze to fund "independent" candidates from non-traditional backgrounds to unseat established MPs of all parties. The team will begin work in time for the Euro elections in May. Judge isn't short of a few pennies, having made millions in the 1980s and topped these up with a £14m windfall in returned divorce payments just before Christmas. He now rails against the corruption of politicians and arrogant party machines, boldly comparing his new movement to that of Martin Luther. Truly, hell has few furies like a Tory grandee scorned.
Political philosopher Michael Sandel was this month unveiled by the BBC as its 2009 Reith lecturer. Widely respected for his communitarian ideas, Sandel is also noted for his willingness to grapple with tricky policy issues like organ donation and the ethics of biotechnology. Surely unbeknownst to Auntie, though, the learned professor is less well-known as an inspiration—physical, if not philosophical—for one of the most nefarious, amoral and anti-communitarian characters in fiction: one Montgomery Burns, the nuclear power magnate in The Simpsons.
How did such a thing come about? Comedian Matt Groening, a Harvard reject, created the series, hiring dozens of clever-dick young writers from his hoped-for alma matter in the process. To those in the know, hidden references to America's haughtiest university are dotted amidst the town's yellow-skinned residents. The local Kwik-E-Mart, for instance, is located at 57 Mount Auburn Street—the address in Cambridge, Massachusetts of Harvard's Lampoon, the satirical magazine that schooled many future Simpsons writers.
Sandel is a well-known figure around campus and teaches the university's most popular course: "Justice." Thus, as a slightly smug in-joke, Sandel was made one of the models for the cartoon's least just character. Mr Burns as the Reith lecturer. Beeb chiefs weren't to know. D'oh.
The plan for our new man in Pakistan
Pity the foreign office. During the great game, they played diplomatic chess with the Tsar's ministers, vying for control of all of Eurasia. Now, with Afghanistan and Pakistan—or "AfPak"—heading south, they must watch from the sidelines as the Yanks surge to the rescue. But foreign secretary David Miliband seems to be suffering Obama-envy, having mimicked the US president's decision to send tough-minded Richard Holbrooke as US regional envoy. Who is Blighty's new man? Step forward Sherard Cowper-Coles, previously our chap in Kabul. Cowper-Coles, known affectionately (if not entirely seriously) as C-squared, is viewed in Washington as something of a Lord John Marbury figure, after the posh-but-crafty British diplomat in The West Wing. He also turned heads during his spell as Afghan ambassador for suggesting that the Taliban could be turned back by installing a new dictator. His cunning plan for Afpak's future—rumoured to include a return to Government-by-Mullah—is eagerly awaited by all.
Colonel Gaddafi woos the Queen Mother
When Colonel Gaddafi ditched his WMD and started playing nice over Lockerbie, he stopped being a useful pantomime villain and the western world largely lost interest in his antics, writes Tom Nuttall. Now, though, he's engineered a spectacular return to the limelight, having got himself elected in February to the chairmanship of the African Union.
For Gaddafi plans to use his new perch to urge nothing less than a "United States of Africa." It's a scheme he's nursed for some time—and one which looks none too tempting to many of his fellow African leaders, who consider him something of a liability and the idea itself unworkable. Nevertheless, the man has style. Late in 2008, Gaddafi hosted 200 of Africa's "traditional leaders," who graciously proclaimed him Africa's "king of kings." Undeterred by mere tact (and sporting a nattily matching gold cap and robe), he then used his debut as AU chairman to announce that he would pursue his dream of a united continental government via a cunning "silence is approval" policy. If you don't disagree loudly enough, he'll assume he has your support. It'll all be done and dusted, he says, by July.
Such pan-African supremacism may come unstuck, however, following lurid claims in the Ugandan tabloid Red Pepper, which has been publishing breathless details of alleged "romance escapades" between Gaddafi and the Queen Mother of Tooro, a small kingdom in western Uganda. The "king of kings practically leaks his lips" in the presence of her majesty, reported the paper—prompting Gaddafi to sue for the staggering sum of $1bn. Still, it's nice to see that the affairs of one of the world's last truly eccentric dictators can still provide good copy.
Zadie Smith finds herself online
Googling yourself—otherwise known as egosurfing—can prove a hazardous activity for both bright young authors and self-conscious bloggers. Take Robert McCrum's rather hapless books blog for the Observer, in which he recently expounded a discourse on "Sebald, Hughes and Smith: three modern greats." Comments rolled in disputing Zadie Smith's right to be called a "great" author—not to mention McCrum's literary judgement. He was soon on the back foot: "For the record, I added her to this trio, as a kind of afterthought," he explained. But who's this cropping up a few comments later? "Hello. This is Zadie Smith… I was just passing through the book pages, and found this thread and wanted to add two things..." Leaving aside the question of how many people just happen to "pass through" an article and string of comments about their writing, Smith proceeded to puncture the toxic vehemence of some of her critics—who had been supplying some distinctly sexist innuendos—and to show admirable indifference in the face of being labelled an "afterthought."
Cue much backtracking on McCrum's part: "I admire Zadie Smith, and her work, and of course she is at the beginning of her career, so there's plenty to look forward to, no doubt." He then added a plaintive request—"Can we draw a line and move on, please?" Fifty comments and no lines later, he popped up with a final mea culpa: "Not sure how 'great' this blog is, finally, and the point is very well taken that lists are intrinsically boring…" If only all authors and bloggers took their readership so seriously.
Ormerod to the rescue of recession-hit rugby
Has rugby league found its Roman Abramovich? In February, arch-economist (and Prospect contributor) Paul Ormerod hatched a plan to keep his boyhood club—the Rochdale Hornets—playing through the chill winds of the credit crisis, which had seemed set to freeze the Hornets to death. Ormerod, a Rochdale native who first saw the Hornets half a century ago, has formed an "industrial and provident" society under the august title of the Rochdale Hornets Rugby Football League Society Limited. "If we run a tight ship and have a much more realistic cost base… we will be fine," he told the Rochdale Observer. It's not quite Chelsea, but it's still a lifeline for beleaguered sports fans. Let's just hope the title of Ormerod's recent book, Why Most Things Fail, doesn't apply to sporting endeavours in greater Manchester.
What's coming up
4th March Pakistan's senate elections.
5th March International women's day—and the Second National People's Congress of China.
9th March The Prophet Muhammad's 1439th birthday.
17th March George W Bush delivers his first post-presidential speech, in Calgary, Alberta.
30th March Arab League summit, Doha, Qatar.
March 2009 is the 20th anniversary of the initial proposal for the world wide web.
