UNITED STATES
Budget wars and Rahm’s race
President Obama should submit his 2012 budget to Congress by mid-February. But with the House of Representatives now under Republican control, and looking for deep spending cuts and for ways to undermine him, this budget battle could be a real game of brinkmanship. The original deadline was 7th February, but wrangling over the confirmation of the new budget director Jacob Lew (see p7) pushed it back. Obama has promised cuts that will embody the “shared sacrifice” he says is needed to tame the $1.3 trillion deficit, but they won’t be enough to appease his opponents, who want to use the near-bankruptcy of some cities to pick a fight with the unions.
In Chicago, Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s former chief of staff, runs for mayor on 22nd February. The famously combative Emanuel, who popularised the battle cry “never let a crisis go to waste,” is expected to win. Richard Daley, the incumbent, who was once described as having “imperial” power, steps down after 21 years in the job—surpassing by a few months the reign of his father, also Richard Daley. But more than a quarter of voters are undecided—which may deny Emanuel a first-round victory.
HAITI
Electoral tinderbox
President René Préval’s term in office is due to expire on 7th February, but there is still significant protest at the conduct of last year’s elections and dispute over who should be on the ballot paper for round two. Préval has suggested that his term be extended while the row is sorted out—which may prompt more unrest. The return on 17th January of Jean-Claude “Baby Doc” Duvalier (above), the former president who was forced out in 1986, will do nothing to help stability.
EUROPEAN UNION
Energy vs eurocrisis
EU heads of state will meet in Brussels on 4th February for a European Council meeting. This is one of the “themed” summits conceived by Herman Van Rompuy when he became president of the council just over a year ago. Several leaders made it clear they would sooner make monthly trips to the dentist than to Brussels so he backed off, scheduling a few ad hoc meetings instead. This time, EU leaders are supposed to talk about energy security. The energy commissioner, Günther Oettinger, is due to finalise his “Energy 2020” strategy by the end of this year but has been criticised for bowing to national interests. In any case, the agenda may be hard to sustain. Like other recent council meetings, this one will be dominated by the euro crisis and talk of an “orderly” Greek default.
RUSSIA
Putin’s power play
Putin or Medvedev? Expect the first signs of bargaining over whether Putin, now prime minister, will try to secure a third term as president in 2012, dislodging the purportedly more liberal Medvedev. The ousting of Yuri Luzhkov, the autocratic mayor of Moscow, last year produced the first hint of an apparent split between the two. Some suggest this is a phony war which will lead to a deal.
QATAR
Cricket’s judgement day
The International Cricket Council’s tribunal reconvenes on 5th February to deliver its verdict on the Pakistani cricketers accused of “spot-fixing”—deliberately bowling no balls at a specified time so gamblers involved in the alleged conspiracy could win huge sums—during Test matches against England last year. Meanwhile cricket’s World Cup begins on 19th February in India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
UGANDA
Museveni unmoved?
President Yoweri Museveni, already east Africa’s longest-serving head of state after almost a quarter of a century in power, is favoured to win a fourth term in elections on 18th February. But reports of widespread fraud and intimidation of opponents will not boost his faded claim to be one of Africa’s most astute leaders. His main competitor is Kizza Besigye, his former doctor, who has challenged him twice before.
Budget wars and Rahm’s race
President Obama should submit his 2012 budget to Congress by mid-February. But with the House of Representatives now under Republican control, and looking for deep spending cuts and for ways to undermine him, this budget battle could be a real game of brinkmanship. The original deadline was 7th February, but wrangling over the confirmation of the new budget director Jacob Lew (see p7) pushed it back. Obama has promised cuts that will embody the “shared sacrifice” he says is needed to tame the $1.3 trillion deficit, but they won’t be enough to appease his opponents, who want to use the near-bankruptcy of some cities to pick a fight with the unions.
In Chicago, Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s former chief of staff, runs for mayor on 22nd February. The famously combative Emanuel, who popularised the battle cry “never let a crisis go to waste,” is expected to win. Richard Daley, the incumbent, who was once described as having “imperial” power, steps down after 21 years in the job—surpassing by a few months the reign of his father, also Richard Daley. But more than a quarter of voters are undecided—which may deny Emanuel a first-round victory.
HAITI
Electoral tinderbox
President René Préval’s term in office is due to expire on 7th February, but there is still significant protest at the conduct of last year’s elections and dispute over who should be on the ballot paper for round two. Préval has suggested that his term be extended while the row is sorted out—which may prompt more unrest. The return on 17th January of Jean-Claude “Baby Doc” Duvalier (above), the former president who was forced out in 1986, will do nothing to help stability.
EUROPEAN UNION
Energy vs eurocrisis
EU heads of state will meet in Brussels on 4th February for a European Council meeting. This is one of the “themed” summits conceived by Herman Van Rompuy when he became president of the council just over a year ago. Several leaders made it clear they would sooner make monthly trips to the dentist than to Brussels so he backed off, scheduling a few ad hoc meetings instead. This time, EU leaders are supposed to talk about energy security. The energy commissioner, Günther Oettinger, is due to finalise his “Energy 2020” strategy by the end of this year but has been criticised for bowing to national interests. In any case, the agenda may be hard to sustain. Like other recent council meetings, this one will be dominated by the euro crisis and talk of an “orderly” Greek default.
RUSSIA
Putin’s power play
Putin or Medvedev? Expect the first signs of bargaining over whether Putin, now prime minister, will try to secure a third term as president in 2012, dislodging the purportedly more liberal Medvedev. The ousting of Yuri Luzhkov, the autocratic mayor of Moscow, last year produced the first hint of an apparent split between the two. Some suggest this is a phony war which will lead to a deal.
QATAR
Cricket’s judgement day
The International Cricket Council’s tribunal reconvenes on 5th February to deliver its verdict on the Pakistani cricketers accused of “spot-fixing”—deliberately bowling no balls at a specified time so gamblers involved in the alleged conspiracy could win huge sums—during Test matches against England last year. Meanwhile cricket’s World Cup begins on 19th February in India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
UGANDA
Museveni unmoved?
President Yoweri Museveni, already east Africa’s longest-serving head of state after almost a quarter of a century in power, is favoured to win a fourth term in elections on 18th February. But reports of widespread fraud and intimidation of opponents will not boost his faded claim to be one of Africa’s most astute leaders. His main competitor is Kizza Besigye, his former doctor, who has challenged him twice before.
