Much of the UK hasn’t noticed, but an enormous shift could be about to happen in Welsh politics. Soon, Labour may no longer be its largest party.
Welsh Labour has been the most successful democratic political party in world history. No other party has had such an unbroken winning streak. Since 1922, Labour has received more votes in Wales than any other party, in both general and Senedd—that is, Welsh parliamentary—elections. But the polls suggest this hegemony could come to an end at the next Senedd elections in 2026.
Despite the Welsh Conservatives currently being the official opposition, the threat doesn’t come from them. Polls suggest the Tories could finish fourth. Instead, the big challenge to Welsh Labour comes in two very different forms: Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
To understand why these two parties could turn Welsh politics on its head in 2026, you need to understand the current political situation in Wales.
The most influential factor is the perilous state of Welsh public services, which Labour has been responsible for since devolution began in 1999. One good example is the health service. In September 2012, only one person had been waiting for more than two years for a procedure on the Welsh NHS. The latest data shows there are now more than 23,000. The number waiting over a year for any appointment is now 160,000, up from only 1,696 in 2012.
What is perhaps more damaging for Welsh Labour is that there are currently almost no two-year waits in England. Given that Wales has a population of just over three million people, this reflects very badly on the Welsh government’s stewardship.
There are some mitigating factors. On average, Wales has an older population than England—in part because people love to retire here. The population is also sicker, due to both our heavily industrial past and higher poverty levels. Caveats aside, however, certain issues fall squarely at Labour’s feet. For example, despite having the same population as Greater Manchester, Wales has seven health boards. The largest of these, Betsi Cadwaladr, was put into special measures in 2015 after “institutional abuse” of patients on a mental health ward. A decade on, it is still in special measures.
And it isn’t just health. According to the international Pisa rankings published last December, Welsh performance in maths, reading and science tests taken by 15-year-olds has fallen to their lowest ever levels.
At the general election in July, Wales was the only nation where Labour’s vote share fell. With the party still in turmoil after the first minister, Vaughan Gething, stepped down following a long-running donations scandal that culminated in four members of his own cabinet resigning, there is a real opening for Plaid and Reform. Both parties seek to capitalise on the perceived weakness in Welsh governance, even if their cures for Welsh ills differ.
Reform clearly has its sights set on Wales: it launched its general election campaign on the Gurnos Estate in Merthyr Tydfil and ended up coming second in 13 of Wales’s 32 Westminster seats. Most striking are the areas where the party did well: predominantly former Labour safe seats with high levels of poverty, such as Pontypridd and Llanelli.
In Llanelli, Labour’s majority of 12,751 was only 1,500 ahead of Reform, on 11,247. Former industrial areas like this have been the backbone of Labour support for over a century—more recently, however, they also massively skewed leave in the EU referendum.
But the threat isn’t just coming from the right. In that same Llanelli seat, the centre-left nationalist party Plaid Cymru also did well, with a strong 9,500 votes. Plaid won four seats this summer, with a 14.8 per cent share of the Welsh vote. Recent polls suggest Plaid could go one further at the Senedd elections—where historically the party has performed far better—and overtake Labour’s share.
This marks a change in fortunes for Plaid, which in the past decade has struggled to make much headway. Mark Drakeford, the former Labour first minister and a native Welsh speaker, managed to effectively position his party as a bulwark against Conservative government in Westminster. He loudly advocated for “devolution max”, leaving Plaid with only independence when it came to distinct policy options.
Now that there is a Labour government in Westminster, Welsh Labour can no longer point down the M4 and blame England for its struggles. While the damage caused to Wales by austerity will take more than a few months to undo, Starmer has made it clear that very little extra money will be forthcoming before 2026. Add to this that young people in Wales increasingly identify as “Welsh” rather than “British”, and there is a golden opportunity here for Plaid to position itself as the true advocate for Wales.
Whether it is Reform demanding devolution be rolled back or Plaid calling for more powers, Labour is facing an uphill battle. The only way it has a chance of winning is without shortcuts. Labour owns devolution in Wales. It is the party that introduced it. It is the party that has been in power here for a quarter of a century. Labour is under pressure to fulfil the original promises of devolution and meaningfully improve the lives of people in Wales. Anything less could lead to the most reliable brick in the red wall crumbling.
