Donald Trump’s baleful influence on Europe has two alarming dimensions. There is his own enthusiasm for tariffs and Vladimir Putin. And there is his affinity with hard-right parties within Europe itself, which could undermine European security from inside. Europe’s democrats need to counter both threats.
Fortunately, there is little unity within or between the various camps. Trump’s team contains free traders and strong pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin figures, notably Marco Rubio, the incoming secretary of state. Our first task is to work alongside Rubio and likeminded Trumpites to avoid catastrophic outcomes.
Similarly, there is a spectrum within the European hard-right governments. Giorgia Meloni of Italy has been a stalwart in supporting Zelensky and Ukraine, and even Viktor Orbán of Hungary has no enthusiasm for a trade war with the US. There are deals to be done to isolate Orbán in particular.
On Ukraine, a key issue is the willingness of European Nato members to station troops in the unoccupied part of the country as part of a post-conflict security guarantee. The stronger Britain, France and Germany are on this, the more likely we are to persuade Trump to participate too. Trump will have a clear incentive to protect any ceasefire agreement he has himself negotiated with Putin and avoid another Russian invasion.
The leadership of Friedrich Merz, assuming he is Germany’s new chancellor, will be crucial. So far he has kept his country’s far-right party, the AfD, in check by taking a hard line on migration alongside a robust defence of German interests. He was the first European leader to attack Musk for “foreign interference” in domestic affairs. Let’s hope he strikes up some kind of rapport with Trump, JD Vance and their team.
In France, a two-year battle is underway for the succession to Emmanuel Macron. The more subservient Marine le Pen is to Trump, the more she will lose the patriotic vote. This is an opportunity for Macron and his allies.
In Britain, Nigel Farage has an equally difficult tightrope to walk. He can’t defend either Trump tariffs or the outright defeat of Ukraine. So it is in his interests that Trump doesn’t attempt the indefensible.
