Kamala Harris’s honeymoon has taken her to level-pegging or better in the national polls and ahead of Trump in US swing states. With less than three months to go until the election, let’s hope the momentum powers through until the end. But Democrats—and democrats worldwide with a small “d”—also need to prepare for the worst.
It’s not just that the polls are volatile and that the Harris lead has yet to turn into anything substantial. This is an election with fairly weak candidates on both sides, and with only one clear “make or break” issue driving voters to the polls: namely, abortion.
Fortunately, supporting abortion rights animates far more voters for the Democrats—particularly women—than the anti-abortionists who rally to the Republicans. Harris is making abortion her top issue, and is hoping to secure support among women who also dislike Trump personally. It is still only one issue, however—and not a burning economic issue with universal appeal.
On the economy, there is no clear advantage on either side. Joe Biden has a good economic record, but Trump has a personal plausibility on the economy which extends beyond Elon Musk and fellow billionaires who stand to gain personally from another very rich man dishing out favours to other rich men who supported him in the election.
Fortunately too, Harris has done a better job of selecting a running-mate than Trump. Tim Walz is mainstream, inoffensive and experienced, three things that could not be said of JD Vance.
But it is the candidate at the top of the ticket which most sways voters, and while Harris doesn’t have Biden’s huge negatives on age and incapacity, she doesn’t have huge positives either. She isn’t personally associated with any great successes of the Biden presidency. Rather, she is linked to a poor record in policy on mass immigration and the chaos of the southern US border. She has not got a silver tongue nor notable emotional appeal.
So it could still go either way, and the honeymoon for Harris may not last. If it doesn’t, we have to hope that Trump doesn’t come back with majorities in one or both branches of Congress, which would make him far more dangerous, especially in relation to Vladimir Putin and ending support for Ukraine. Both the Senate and the House are on a knife-edge and could go either way.
The biggest act of preparation lies with Europe, which will need very rapidly to provide far more financial and military support for Ukraine than at present. Ukraine’s President Zelensky could not have made it clearer—with his bold counter-invasion of Russia itself—that he is not caving to Russia voluntarily. And his timing is perfect for making that view clear to the US and the rest of Europe before November’s election.
It is vital for European democracy and prosperity that if Trump wins, Putin doesn’t win too. Liberal democracy can probably survive Trump. It is safer not to test whether it can also survive the victory of the most dangerous authoritarian threatening Europe.
