In six months’ time, Donald Trump and JD Vance could be on the verge of entering the White House. That gives Europe six months to work out how to prevent Vladimir Putin winning the Ukraine war and going on to menace the entire continent.
It is not inevitable that Trump withdraws support from Ukraine, despite his and Vance’s rhetoric of Putin appeasement. It is not just Washington decision-makers and a majority in Congress, whichever party wins control, who will be against a Russian triumph. Even among his own Maga partisans there will be concern about the knock-on effect with China if Ukraine—or a large part of it—is annexed by Putin. Taiwan would be in imminent danger of the same treatment from Xi Jinping, causing huge economic and strategic harm to the US—something even Trump appears to realise.
Nor is it inevitable that Ukraine collapses if the US does withdraw further support. The resources of Europe, including its capacity to harness military power, dwarfs that of Russia if it collectively mobilises. The question is whether the European members of Nato are prepared to increase spending and the deployment of hardware rapidly and substantially.
I suspect there may also be a link between these two scenarios. By which I mean that the more emboldened Europe is, the less likely is a Trump administration to break with allies who are clearly not prepared to fall in behind the appeasement of Putin. Trump hates to look weak and a loser, as he would if he tried but failed to impose defeat and subjection on Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine.
So Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, Keir Starmer and Ursula von der Leyen have a huge challenge and responsibility to mobilise Europe against Putin over the coming months.
The consequences of failure would be dire, not only for Ukraine but for the rest of Europe too. States in eastern Europe would be under huge threat of military attack, and Europe at large—west and east—would face anti-democratic destabilisation of a ferocity not witnessed since the 1970s. In one key respect it would be worse than the Cold War, as the US would be neutral rather than an ally, and Nato would effectively collapse.
It is mind-blowing that we could be in such a position. But Trump is not as irrational as he seems. China directly threatens the US, economically and strategically, to a far greater degree than Russia. Putin’s direct threat to the US is its threat to the west at large as a zone of democracy. But Trump is ambivalent about democracy, and likes to admire strongmen who aren’t a direct threat.
The trouble even for this warped Maga mindset is that with democracy go stability and prosperity, so the US would pay a heavy price for going neutral on Europe.
Meanwhile, if need be, Europe must save itself on its own.
