Britain is leaving the European Union. These are uncertain political times, but this, understandably, remains conventional wisdom. Whatever the confusion surrounding the precise nature of Brexit, not to mention the route by which we are to get there, Britain will, one day down the line, leave the pesky Eurocrats behind. This much looks certain, to Remainers and Brexiteers alike.
After all, Theresa May has triggered Article 50. Negotiations have begun. The government has committed totally to Brexit, as has the opposition. The repeal bill, which will transpose EU law into British law—a key marker in the Brexit process—will be published tomorrow. When I asked prominent Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg about those who seek to thwart Brexit, he shot back: "I don't think they'll win." MPs who fight back are accused of trying to subvert the will of the British people.
However, Brexit may not be so certain as these facts suggest. Chat to senior pro-European politicians, activists and legal experts, and a plausible picture of the future emerges in which Britain remains an EU member after all. Is this outcome likely? No. Is it possible? Absolutely. The country is headed for a monumental economic shock, and even the smallest change in public opinion could render politically necessary the now unthinkable.
Vince Cable was right to raise the point over the weekend, and confirmed to me today that a scenario in which Britain Remains "could well occur." He is not the only pro-EU politician to harbour this suspicion.
Caroline Lucas, co-leader of the Green Party, voted against triggering Article 50 in February. She told me: "Britain's departure from the EU may not be a certainty" thanks to "strong economic headwinds we're facing."
It's a point worth considering, especially given that these headwinds look set to get stronger still. Unnerved by Brexit, the economy is beginning to turn. Inflation is starting to bite, and the Bank of England predicts that it could rise above 3 per cent by the Autumn. The squeeze on living standards will only increase as our exit draws nearer. Added to this, business confidence is plummeting. Reports have emerged that investment in the UK car industry this year will be less than half what it was in 2016.
"Is it likely that Britain Remains? No. Is it possible? Absolutely."Gina Miller, who fought the government all the way to the Supreme Court last year when it attempted to trigger Article 50 without parliamentary approval, told me recently that if this economic deterioration continues, businesses will start speaking out. "Time will start showing what will happen to our economy. We’re already seeing the signs. Businesses will start being more vocal about the fact that they’re looking to move."
The economic challenge ahead, then, is severe. That would be daunting at the best of times, but one cannot shake the uncomfortable sense that the government is particularly badly placed to manage the coming crisis. That it may simply not have the wherewithal—let alone the parliamentary majority—to navigate all the obstacles it is set to come up against in the Brexit process. In June last year David Davis—now Brexit Secretary—told me it was "highly unlikely the EU would stick to a punitive line" in the event of a Leave vote. A year later, leaders on the continent are united in their insistence that Britain cannot retain the benefits of EU membership from the outside. A bad exit deal—or no deal at all—could well end up compounding our economic misery.
Miller had some deeply troubling insights on this subject: "all the conversations we are having among ourselves domestically make no difference" to the Brexit outcome, she said. When I asked her whether this is because the EU will simply dictate the terms of our exit, she replied: "I think they will." These power differentials were thrown into sharp relief, Miller argued, when having promised the "row of the summer" over the Brexit timetable, Davis acceded to the EU's proposed timings on the very first day of negotiation.
What does all this mean for the prospects of Britain remaining? I think that it bodes well. That is, things as they stand bode badly for Britain's current approach, and so well for a different one. For the public, having been exposed to just the first year of the Brexit downturn—and this government's incompetence—is already starting to rethink. Lucas told me: "an increasing number of people are calling into question the entire Brexit process."
In recent months, poll after poll has shown the first signs of "Bregret." Survation—a polling company which came very close to predicting the shock general election result—says that if the referendum were held today 54 per cent of us would vote Remain. The overall trend isn’t yet clear enough for us to conclude the people have changed their minds—but nor can it be dismissed.
But if the economy does tank, and public opinion does move against Brexit, what then? How would we get from point A: a public will to Remain, to point B: actually reversing the Brexit decision?
Lucas would like to see a second referendum: "The British people should be given a final say at the end of this process," she told me. In my opinion, a "ratification referendum" is unlikely after the gruesome ordeal of the first. Miller told me she is no fan of the idea, either.
"An increasing number of people are calling into question the entire Brexit process"The prospect of a "meaningful" final Brexit vote in the Commons, however, remains a distinct possibility. As things stand, May has pledged to grant MPs a "take it or leave it" vote on the final deal: either they accept it, or Britain crashes out of the EU without one. A "meaningful" vote would give our representatives a third option: they could vote to reverse Brexit. “I think parliament has to have the opportunity of saying ‘this is so catastrophic, we want Britain to Remain,’" Miller told me.
If MPs were granted this power, and the economy then crashed, they would be forced to consider exercising it. Crucially, parliament has also swung towards Remain since the election, with more pro-Europeans in the Commons thanks to Labour’s unexpectedly good performance. The Brexit arithmetic has changed: Remain holds more cards than it did.
The path to Britain changing its mind, then, is clear. Which brings us to the next question: would the EU let us Remain?
The political evidence certainly suggests that it would, with Antonio Tajani, president of the European parliament, stating in April that Britain would be welcomed back if it asked. Donald Tusk echoed this sentiment in a comment last month. The legal question is a different matter. Expert opinion is split, but Bruce Ackerman, a globally-respected constitutional expert and professor of law and political science at Yale, told me he believes that it would be legal for Britain to revoke Article 50.
Kenneth Armstrong, Director of the Centre for European Studies at the University of Cambridge, spoke to me about the issue in a recent email conversation. The implication of his comments are that many MPs and commentators have accepted that it is legal to revoke Article 50 without quite realising that's what they've done.
A fierce debate has been raging in Westminster over recent days about whether Britain should remain in Euratom, which governs the movement of nuclear materials across Europe. But this, Armstrong told me, "is a proxy debate for whether the UK could revoke its Article 50 letter entirely." This is because the Article 50 letter concerned Britain's exit from both the EU and Euratom. If it transpires that the UK can decide to remain a member of Euratom, therefore, "it can legally remain in the EU." The logic is clear.
Whatever the legal answer, it seems highly unlikely to me that we could reach an impasse where Britain wanted to rejoin the EU, and the EU wanted us back, yet legal barriers got in the way. A political solution of some kind, some sort of fudge, would surely be found, and Britain would wind up back in the club—with the associated economic and cultural benefits.
The hypotheticals on the journey to Remain are many, but each step in the chain seems plausible enough. Watch closely over the coming months: my expectation is that more and more polls will start register a change in mood.
If this happens, politicians will surely start manoeuvring in light of it. We could Remain after all.
Armstrong went on to mention a Brexit outcome which I have not gone into here—but which gave me pause. There is the possibility that Britain will arrange an interim Brexit deal, only to get "lost in transition," never fully breaking away, he said.
This outcome would perhaps be the most damaging of all, leaving the UK "with many of the constraints of membership but none of the influence." He isn't the only expert who thinks transitional arrangements could go awry. Miller told me: "I think at this moment in time the most likely possibility is that we’ll still be negotiating in five years." All the more reason for extreme caution in the exit process—or perhaps to stop it altogether.
