Today, the UK went to the polls. Throughout the election campaign, 11 political experts have accompanied Prospect in a special election group chat. Imagine a WhatsApp group of your most politically informed friends from across the ideological spectrum on-hand to discuss the biggest and smallest issues as the parties vie for our votes.
The exit poll is predicting a Labour majority of 170. We asked our panellists what they thought.
Emily Lawford: The exit poll has just dropped. What’s your snap reaction?
Tim Bale: A disaster for the Tories but not a complete catastrophe.
Marie Le Conte: Quietly horrified by Reform potentially getting 13 seats—everything else is more or less as we expected.
Frances Ryan: This election campaign has been a lesson in the left containing our hope. Poll after poll has shown a thumping Labour victory and Tory wipeout and at every stage, we’ve said, “no, it can’t be that good!” Now, with an exit poll flashing in black and white, it might be time to say: “Maybe it can?” Maybe this country has finally had its fill of the Conservative party. Maybe this is the beginning of something new. (But I don’t want to jinx it.)
Zoë Grünewald: Reform is quite shocking. Beating SNP. Greens probs hoped for more.
Peter Kellner: This is the sixth election when BBC, Sky and ITV have joined forces. They have a good record. Their greatest error was just 15 seats (underestimating Con in 2015). There have been two 11-seat errors (overstating Con in 2005, and understating Lab in 2019). Otherwise errors have all been in single digits. Because this week’s election is likely to yield many more very tight contests, total accuracy cannot be guaranteed. What we can be sure from tonight’s exit poll is that Labour has achieved a majority of between 120 and 220. However, it’s a landslide in seats but not in votes. Indeed it will probably end up with around one million fewer votes than under Jeremy Corbyn in 2017.
That said, democracy has served its basic function: to replace an unpopular government peacefully and install a clear alternative. The polls have diminished our wonder at the scale of the Conservative disaster. But it is truly historic. As the lady said about the news that South Georgia had been recaptured in the Falklands War, “rejoice, rejoice”. Two dramas plus ahead. The Labour story—what it does in government and how well it succeeds—will unfold over the next five years. The Conservative drama will start to erupt tonight.
Matthew Lesh: This is largely as expected by all the polls: Labour has achieved a thumping victory and the Conservatives a catastrophic wipeout. Much will be made of where the Tories go next, and the better than expected result for Reform signals pressures on the right. But really, the main game in town over the coming years will be Labour. What they will do with this majority is anyone’s guess. Keir Starmer’s support is broad, but weak. He enters Number 10 with net negative approval ratings, despite achieving a large majority. This could make his position weaker than it appears tonight. The challenge now is whether he achieve the “change” that Labour has promised, fix a broken Britain on so many fronts and navigate severe political and economic challenges to do so. We should all wish him well.
Moya Lothian-McLean: Ed Davey’s watersports were worth it.
Philip Collins: I had started to become more and more concerned about how far the Tories would collapse. I don’t want a Faragist Tory party. A hundred and thirty-one seats is better than it might have been.
Peter Hitchens: Dispiriting and rather dull that the polls have been so right. I do wonder, if there had been no polls, if the actual voting would have remained so immovable. Also, has a campaign of such dullness and evasiveness, led by a person so uninspiring, ever been rewarded with such a majority?
Nadine Batchelor-Hunt: Obviously huge result for Labour. Shocked by the complete collapse of the SNP in Scotland. Surprised Reform has done as well as it has. Disaster for the Tories, but not as bad as it could have been.
