It’s election week. Throughout the campaign, eleven political experts have accompanied Prospect in a special election group chat. Imagine a WhatsApp group of your most politically informed friends from across the ideological spectrum on-hand to discuss the biggest and smallest issues as the parties vie for our votes. Yesterday we asked them what could happen if the Tories win. Today we ask what other unexpected things we could see on the night.
Emily Lawford: Every election has surprises. What do you think Thursday night’s surprises could be?
Marie Le Conte: Oddly, I think the Conservatives may make a couple of gains in Scotland. A lot of people are sick of the SNP north of the border and there are seats where Labour just doesn't have a chance. It would be quite an amusing narrative arc, given past elections.
Peter Kellner: Lowest ever turnout (current record 59 per cent in 2001). SNP staying ahead of Labour in Scotland; Corbyn winning in Islington North. (I don’t expect any of these, but all are possible.)
Frances Ryan: This election—the polling, anyway—has set the bar so high for a Labour victory and a Tory wipeout, we may have missed the opportunity for real shocks. But any big Tory scalp (Jeremy Hunt, Liz Truss, Jacob Rees-Mogg) will be well worth watching. In a country dominated by Conservative rule and press, the Labour party getting a majority of any sorts should be a surprise. That we’re sitting here talking about the possibility of a former prime minister being unseated does show how far removed from the norm this has all become.
Matthew d’Ancona: The surprise will be the actuality. The campaign itself has been a festival of caution, punctuated only by Tory scandal and slip-ups, and the music hall performance of Nigel Farage. But—if the polls are anything close to correct—the result will be historic and leave us all wondering what, precisely, is the significance of the moment. Starmer has expertly plotted a path to a big win. But he has yet to explain what it might really mean, and whether the scale of his ambition matches the numbers on our screens.
Philip Collins: I agree that the surprise will come a few days in when Labour ministers, exhausted from a campaign they could have say out, will be introduced to their civil service teams and will think: “Oh now what?”
Tim Bale: Even though I think that the Conservatives may, for good or ill, do a little better than people assume, the biggest surprise for many Tory politicians will be that hardly anybody in the media will give a monkey’s what they think about anything anymore—with the sole exception, perhaps, of whether they’re going to stand (or who they’re going to back) in the seemingly inevitable post-election leadership contest.
Matthew Lesh: I’m, perhaps to be proven wrong, expecting no big surprises. Tories may do a little better than expected, but considering polls are varying between 50 and 200 seats, it is unlikely be anything outside of that range. There could be some big-name losses, like Jeremy Hunt, but that wouldn’t be a surprise either. Reform may do a little worse, as they have in byelections compared to national polls. But the story will largely be as expected: a thumping Labour majority. The surprises will come later, particularly in my view a short honeymoon period.
Nadine Batchelor-Hunt: Rishi Sunak losing his seat—would be mad but not impossible at this stage.
Frances Ryan: Would also be very, very funny.
Peter Hitchens: I think almost anything could happen, but the (so far) least discussed development may be a major Liberal Democrat recovery.
This conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.
Tomorrow, our panel will be back to answer yet more burning questions about the general election. Got something to ask our experts? Submit your questions!
