It’s election week. Throughout the campaign, eleven political experts have accompanied Prospect in a special election group chat. Imagine a WhatsApp group of your most politically informed friends from across the ideological spectrum on-hand to discuss the biggest and smallest issues as the parties vie for our votes. Last Friday, we asked them how quickly a Starmer government would pursue rapprochement with the EU. Today, we ask a question from a Prospect reader. Could the polls be wrong?
Emily Lawford: What would happen if the Tories win?
Marie Le Conte: Every single pollster in Britain would be sent to live on one of those inhospitable, faraway, uninhabited islands off the coast of Scotland, to atone for their sins.
Tim Bale: Starmer and Davey would almost certainly have to resign. There would be a pollsters’ post mortem to end all post mortems.[f A few people in the City would make a shed-load of money having bet against the conventional wisdom. A large proportion of voters would go into mourning. And—surely the most wickedly funny scenario of all—Rishi Sunak would have to try to implement some of the fantasy pledges he’s been making, including stopping the boats by flying a few hundred folk to Rwanda, while being harangued week-in, week-out by Nigel Farage MP.
Frances Ryan: I would laugh uncontrollably for seven minutes and then probably throw myself out a window.
Peter Kellner: First, I would give thanks I am no longer a pollster, and will avoid sharing Marie’s Scottish island with my old friends. Second, I would set up a fund for all the Tories who had planned a lucrative future after losing their seats (but only if I had a large commission). Third, and the only good thing I can think of, Reform would collapse. Nigel Farage would emigrate to the US and stay there.
Matthew d’Ancona: Personally, I would emigrate and join an order of Cistercians to live out my days growing potatoes and doing penance. The nation would initially congratulate itself on having, once again, foxed the liberal elite—and then experience buyer’s remorse on a world-historic scale. Sunak would initially be like Michael Corleone in the final scene of The Godfather—but Farage’s public pestering would soon make him wish he had lost after all. The Conservative party would become a wholly owned subsidiary of Trump Inc. Starmer would retire from politics to be a full-time five-a-side football coach, promising his team “change” next season. Britain would sleepily slide into a dystopia that would make JG Ballard say: “Wow”.
Peter Hitchens: I would laugh a lot.
Philip Collins: The consequences for Labour would be baleful. The left would say they told us that no victory was possible from the centre and there would be a bitter argument about the direction and identity of the party.
Zoë Grünewald: It’s so difficult to imagine because there are so many other questions and factors. How large was the majority? How does Reform do? What would be certain is five more years of misery and decline. The right would likely stay strong—presuming Farage still wins Clacton. Labour would have a complete identity crisis that could split the party. It’s not clear whether the Conservative party—victorious—would still veer to the right. But the ideological squabbling over the party’s direction and resignation of lots of serious politicians/lots of new blood would probably still result in a hugely divided party that makes lots of mistakes.
This conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.
Tomorrow, our panel will be back to answer yet more burning questions about the general election. Got something to ask our experts? Submit your questions!
