Britain goes to the polls in one week. Is Labour headed for a landslide? Are the Tories headed for disaster? Prospect has invited 11 political experts to an election group chat. Imagine a WhatsApp group of your most politically informed friends from across the ideological spectrum on-hand to discuss the biggest and smallest issues as the parties campaign for our votes. Yesterday, we asked our panellists why the major parties are so scared of electoral reform. Today, we ask a question about UK-US ties.
Alona Ferber: Last night we had the final Starmer-Sunak debate of the 2024 election campaign, and tonight, across the Atlantic, Donald Trump and Joe Biden meet in their first presidential debate. How well would Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak handle a Trump presidency, if he does indeed win the US election?
Matthew d’Ancona: Whoever wins, it will be a diplomatic nightmare. In terms of party management, it would be marginally easier for Sunak who has some MAGA-friendly backbenchers—Truss, Rees-Mogg, Braverman, Kruger, Cates (assuming—implausibly—a Tory majority). But, really, party management will be low on the list of the next PM’s worries if Trump wins. The key (as Starmer knows) will be to hold his nose and try to persuade The Donald that NATO is worth the bother, that Ukraine still deserves military aid, that big trade tariffs are a bad idea, that dropping net zero commitments (again) is not as fun as Trump thinks it is. The only way to handle a re-elected Trump is as a maniac who needs to be soothed and coaxed into doing the right thing (or some of it). And give him as much flummery and state visit nonsense as the UK public can stomach (hard, I know). There is no easy option if he wins in November. Trump thinks the UK is a big golf course with a monarchy. That’s what the PM, whoever he is, will be dealing with.
Peter Hitchens: Alas, as both appear committed to the absurdity of the ‘special relationship’ they will be, of their own volition, unable to keep Trump at arm’s length, or even further away. How long will this country continue to pretend that the USA is our unshakeable best friend?
Tim Bale: What Matt said—plus, on the assumption that they will be leading the opposition rather than the government, whichever Tory takes over from Sunak should think very carefully indeed before trying to ingratiate themselves with Trump, should he win. I'm not sure any politician on this side of the Atlantic—however right-wing—would be wise to get themselves tarred with that particular brush.
Marie Le Conte: That is something I found striking between 2016 and 2020—the first time Trump stood for president, parliament was essentially united in opposition to him, aside from maybe a handful of cranks. Four years later, a decent chunk of the parliamentary Conservative party was openly backing Trump's Republicans. I can imagine something like this actively helping Labour in November if a radicalised Conservative party decide to get even closer to Trump. Every bit of polling we have shows that the majority of Brits cannot stand him.
Nadine Batchelor-Hunt: Imagine they’d navigate it how Theresa May did. They’d be forced to grin and bear it, or risk alienating a key ally. In an increasingly unstable world the UK has to remain a close ally of the United States. I imagine if Trump wins and continues his hawkishness on NATO, it could also result in the UK having to take more of a leadership position in that sphere on Ukraine, and so on.
This conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.
Tomorrow, our panel will be back to answer yet more burning questions about the general election. Got something to ask our experts? Submit your questions!
