Britain goes to the polls next week. Is Labour headed for a landslide? Are the Tories headed for disaster? Prospect has invited 11 politics experts to an election group chat. Imagine a WhatsApp group of your most politically informed friends from across the ideological spectrum on-hand to discuss the biggest and smallest issues as the parties campaign for our votes. Yesterday, we asked our panellists about the gambling scandal.
Today, we asked about the culture wars. Should parties wade in, or avoid taking a clear stance?
Emily Lawford: A few “culture war” topics have come up over this campaign. Who benefits from engaging in these debates? And do voters really care?
Peter Hitchens: Voters care a lot, which is why the parties tend to hide plans for major cultural changes. Labour’s 1960s cultural revolution was achieved largely through “private members bills” which were in fact pushed through by the whips. The incorporation of the ECHR into British law and the Equality Act of 2010 were huge delayed-action landmines which few understood while they were legislated. The supporters of such measures are generally not keen on widespread debate, knowing that they are unpopular. But the Cultural Revolution has now captured so much ground that it finds it easier and easier to dismiss its opponents as bigots. Hence the importance in the transgender debate of obvious non-bigots such as Joanne Rowling and Julie Bindel.
Moya Lothian-McLean: Don’t want to particularly further open this can of worms but I want it on Prospect record that I think saying Rowling and Bindel are “obvious non bigots” is incredibly misleading as to their actual position and views. They are very bigoted against transgender people, and it has pushed them to the right on other issues too.
I think culture war issues cut through when there is a lack of optimism and political education, plus declining living standards among the electorate. In lieu of politicians offering anything that could transform people’s lives because it would require spending (and British politicians are hamstrung by certain dominant economic ideology) it is easier to turn to scapegoating minorities. Scarcity mindsets are fertile ground. But for those it appeals to, culture war-shaped policy is ironically never enough. You talk to alienated Conservative voters who lean Reform and they want all the things the Tory party has promised—it still doesn't satiate them. Because there’s an underlying discontent that can’t be articulated, so even concrete policy won’t speak to it.
Peter Kellner: I half agree with Peter Hitchens: big cultural issues can alter the political weather. I would, though, qualify the point in three ways: first, social reforms that are controversial at the time are generally accepted when enacted in law—such as women’s rights, abortion and gay marriage. Peter cites the ECHR and the Equalities Act. These are minority passions of interest to few voters. Second, minority passions can nevertheless affect the outcome of very close elections. This could logically be the case with any campaign, however quixotic, from banning fluoride to closing down all mosques. But we are plainly in an election campaign where the winner is obvious. So, rightly or wrongly, minority concerns that currently excite the media, such as the transgender debate, will affect the results of few, if any, seats. Third, big issues that are often deemed to provoke “culture wars” are usually economic and social arguments dressed up as battles about identity. Brexit and immigration are clear examples. The collapse of Labour’s red wall at the last election was the consequence of decades of industrial decline, crystallised into a dishonest argument about the power of Brussels. Sadly we are all now paying a heavy price for David Cameron’s reckless attempt to buy off his right wing by dressing up as a petty nationalist and alienating Remainers and Leavers alike.
Philip Collins: There is not much evidence, from this campaign at least, that these issues are moving many votes. (Not that this is the important point, really). Labour’s position is confused and confusing on gender and I expected the Conservatives to go harder on the issue but Kemi Badenoch made a mess of it and it doesn’t appear to be moving much. I do know people on both sides of the trans argument who are refusing to vote Labour because of this very topic so it is clearly one that matters a lot, but not to an electorally significant number of people.
Matthew d’Ancona: Politicians and commentators talk about “culture wars” pejoratively when an issue is broached that they don’t like or feel comfortable with. Gender ideology is the obvious example: even though it affects more than half the population, it makes some liberals feel very uncomfortable and is therefore (wrongly) categorised under this heading‚a s if this was a clinching argument. But the political history of the past decade shows beyond doubt that culture is now upstream from politics and that question of identity, belonging and history are central to political discourse. Witness the revulsion felt by the voters when Rishi Sunak left the D-Day commemorations early: a sense of the past, as well as a vision for the future, is essential. And it is right to discuss that past—which is why Sathnam Sanghera’s books are so important. And—since the can of worms is now open—JK Rowling and Julie Bindel are not remotely bigoted. They believe in protecting same-sex spaces and women’s rights: you may disagree with them but their opinions are not the product of prejudice.
Frances Ryan: Since time immemorial, those with power have scapegoated those without for their own ends. “Culture wars”—much like “woke”—is just the latest branding. I’ll have to disagree with Peter on the idea voters strongly care. Polling consistently shows NHS waiting lists and the cost of living are the big issues. Most people are much more concerned about the fact they can’t get a GP appointment rather than which toilet a trans woman uses. But—as we’ve seen lately with the emphasis on “small boats” and people on out of work sickness benefits whilst living standards and public services creak—the right are very good at manipulating people’s very real problems. It is, after all, much easier than solving them.
Tim Bale: I may well be in a minority of one here by saying that, with the obvious exception of immigration and integration, I suspect most people (i.e. those who very sensibly pay relatively little attention to politics and the debates that bewitch and beguile those who do) these days take a case-by-case, live-and-let-live attitude to a lot of those so-called culture-war issues. And when it comes to elections, who gets to go to which bathroom etc pales in comparison to, say, how expensive the weekly shop’s got and how hard it is to get to see a bloody doctor these days. I’m aware how reductive that may sound, but there we are.
Peter Hitchens: In reply to Peter Kellner, the ECHR and the Equality Act were indeed minority concerns. But their effects in daily life are not.
Tim Bale: Very, very naughty of me—not least because it's a focus group and not a poll, and because it “confirms my priors”, as my American polsci colleagues would say, but FWIW, just seen this on X from More in Common.
On the trans and gender identity debate, a few had heard it mentioned on the news over the weekend and wondered why we were spending so much time talking about it in a general election campaign
— Conleth Burns (@BurnsConleth) June 25, 2024
This conversation has been lightly edited for clarity.
Tomorrow, our panel will be back to answer yet more burning questions about the general election. Got something to ask our experts? Submit your questions!
