The endgame for Johnson could come sooner than you think

Amidst the drama of the US election it was easy to miss, but something important happened in the House of Commons yesterday. Of the 38 MPs who opposed the new lockdown regulations, 34 were Conservatives. A further 16 abstained—including Theresa May. In normal parliamentary circumstances (that is, if the opposition parties hadn’t backed the measures) it would almost have been enough for the government to lose.

The issue here is not the vote itself, but the level of anger across the Conservative Party, both from those who supported another lockdown and those who opposed it. The firewall around the government is breaking down. But it is also personal. This is no longer just a question of policy, but of the prime minister.

For some in the party, the last straw was the fact they heard about the new shutdown via a media leak, which sparked a chaotic rush to finalise and announce the plans. None of it spoke to an administration in control of events or, indeed, itself. Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith declared that the leaker should be “strung up to dry, come here to apologise...and beaten on the way out.”

Far more important, however, was yet another example of Johnson dithering, finally deciding something, and then frantically changing course. Throughout this pandemic, every major decision has either come too late or represented a U-turn, and sometimes both. The initial lockdown, use of face masks and A-levels fiasco are just three of the many examples. This time, as in March, the delay has led to a longer shutdown, and as one SAGE adviser put it, many more lives lost. Johnson has been unable to explain why he did not follow the advice for a circuit-breaker in September, or why he accused Labour of wanting to “turn the lights out” when they advocated one three weeks ago.

These are dangerous moments for Johnson. The fiercest lockdown opponents are broadly the pro-Brexit hardliners who propelled the Prime Minister to power in the first place. He also faces dissent on the opposite flank, from Covid hawks who have consistently called for tighter action. Meanwhile, there is the middle group of MPs who recognise the difficult decisions but despair of the botched messaging and frequent handbrake turns.

This is not just about civil liberties but economics. Ominously, a number of “red-wall” MPs in the north feel exposed by the extension of the national furlough scheme subsidising 80 percent of wages, when a few weeks ago their areas were offered just 67 percent. Many also feel uncomfortable about the government’s stance on free school meals and the public-relations disaster which followed it. These MPs owe their jobs to Johnson. On Wednesday a number of them rebelled.

Worse still for Johnson is the pressure placed on him by Keir Starmer. In calling for the circuit-breaker the Labour leader comprehensively outmanoeuvred him. Johnson’s belated measures validate all of Starmer’s attack lines and expose the difference in both policy and competence. Johnson’s only attack line before was “Captain Hindsight,” and now even that is redundant. Meanwhile the public is taking notice. One recent poll placed Labour five points ahead.

It is hard to overstate how extraordinary the situation is. Johnson has been in office for just 15 months and won a resounding parliamentary majority less than a year ago. It is unprecedented in modern times for a Prime Minister’s fortunes to reverse so quickly and dramatically. As recently as April, Johnson was being openly celebrated in both the party and the media; in the months since, his credibility has collapsed. The Dominic Cummings saga triggered a crisis of trust, with some Tory MPs calling for the adviser’s dismissal in public, and many more in private. That trust has not returned, and Johnson has now sacrificed more.

As if this wasn’t enough, the Prime Minister shortly faces the return of Brexit. Whatever happens in the next few weeks, trouble will follow. Although talks in the negotiation “tunnel” have stalled this week, the likeliest outcome remains a deal—which will require major UK concessions on both fisheries and the level playing field, as well as a commitment to remove or substantially amend the offending clauses in the Internal Market Bill (those that break international law are currently parked in the House of Lords). That will not only be humiliating for Johnson, but attract accusations of betrayal from the Brexit hawks already turning on him over Covid-19. If, on the other hand, he really does go for no deal, he will alienate the Tory moderates who promised their constituents Brexit but not economic devastation. Such a spectacular failure of statecraft would invite massive recrimination both inside the party and out.

Despite the intrusions of reality, many Conservatives still believe that nothing much will change in January and people will not perceive a big difference to their lives. Others, particularly those representing Kent, are latterly growing sensitive to the political consequences of clogged motorways and severe disruptions to local infrastructure. All will face their constituents’ anger in the New Year if, as seems likely, things go wrong. That will probably come on top of a resurgent virus and potential fresh lockdowns. Voters, and the newspapers, will know who to blame for the economic and social misery.

It is perhaps auspicious that the US presidency seems to be tilting towards Joe Biden. The government’s direct emulation of Donald Trump’s politics and style may have served it well so far, but an America inching away from nationalist demagoguery will leave Johnson even more exposed than he already was. This enthusiastic Trump supporter will not find it easy to cement a “special relationship” with the likely successor, who has expressed opposition to Brexit and open disdain for the PM’s cavalier approach to Northern Ireland. One of Johnson’s only international cards was his close relationship to the US presidency and the prospect of a new trade deal. Both now look more distant than ever.

The Conservatives’ 1922 Committee requires 55 letters from MPs in order to trigger a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister. Nobody suggests that this will happen imminently. But it may happen sooner than many would ever have imagined. Politics is ruthless and appearances matter. Johnson has never looked less happy or confident in the role. He is exclusively reacting to events rather than driving them. He appears to have run out of ideas both on handling the pandemic and governing beyond it. What ten months ago was unthinkable now looks increasingly likely: if he does not jump, he will be pushed. The only question is when.